2017/03/19 WEEKEND: Black Swans(?): Italy & Greece
© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
WEEKEND: Sunday, March 19, 2017
Black Swans(?): Italy & Greece
This opening graphic notwithstanding, maybe in this case it is more so ‘gray swans’. After all, it’s not like Italy and to an even greater degree Greece are not on folks’ radar screens as potential global financial and economic problem areas. We have dwelt on their combined issues in recent posts, and they should likely be of more interest as the clocks tick toward certain key events. We have explored those at length in ‘European Kool-Aid’ observations from mid-February posts into the top of this month. Of course any observer of the overall global politico-economic scene is entitled to note that the sharp US partisan divide has also significantly worsened since Donald Trump’s November election victory.
And as a brief reminder for anyone who is still not attuned to what the term means, as originally reviewed our January 14th America’s Kool-Aid Crisis post, since the late part of the last century “Kool-Aid Drinking” has meant, “…extreme commitment to any idea or ideology to the exclusion of considering any other ideas might have merit.” The origin of the phrase in mass suicide of a religious cult is also explored there for anyone interested.
Yet the current ‘black swan’ (or ‘grey swan’ if you prefer) factor in this month’s vintage of European Kool-Aid is the intense focus on European elections to the exclusion of other critical influences. This is driven by the fixation on the populist parties’ fortunes, even though they are given almost no chance of success in actually winning to the degree necessary to form a government. This past week saw Dutch populist Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom relegated to clear runner up status in Wednesday’s election. As noted previous and now reinforced by that slippage, French populist Marine LePen is also less likely than her previously slim chance to actually capture the French Presidency.
Yet all of that fixation on looming elections or more deferred votes captures most of the coverage in the political and financial press, and is reflected in the markets as well. There was an excellent column by the Financial Times’ John Authers this weekend on this outsized European market influence relative to actual potential for populist victories. His “Markets crude reading of populism distorts view on Europe” is nonetheless all about election calculus. That ignores some other critical developments…
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.
2017/03/22 Commentary: ‘Vol’ is Back & ‘Regular Order’
2017/03/22 Commentary: ‘Vol’ is Back & ‘Regular Order’
© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
Commentary: Wednesday, March 22, 2017
‘Vol’ is Back & ‘Regular Order’
Yet much like the near-term upside volatility in the wake of the FOMC announcement and Chair Yellen’s press conference last Wednesday was not a game changer shifting back to more sustained strength, neither is Tuesday’s sharpest selloff in five months. The US equities had surged so extensively in the wake of the US election into December and again since early February into the beginning of March, the current selloff can indeed drop a bit further just to reach aggressive up trend support. And we will cut to the chase on that due to the US equities having experienced not only the most extensive movement, but also the only volatility of that extent compared to more orderly reactions in other asset classes.
In fact, the lack of more extensive reactions in other asset classes reinforces the degree to which the US equities had remained overdone on the upside in spite of the underlying psychology weakening due to concerns over the Trump reform agenda. Specifically the June S&P 500 future (front month since the end of last week) was critical into the support in the 2,370 area after gyrating above and below it prior to the FOMC announcement last Wednesday, as we have noted in all recent analysis. Yet it also quickly overran the next 2,350 support Tuesday morning. Fair enough, and additional weakness was therefore not all that much of a surprise. Yet even the aggressive up trend support is at key lower levels that could allow for between a twenty and forty dollar further drop…
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a concise follow on analysis of the US equities activity and relative performance of other equities and asset classes, there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.
Read more...