Radio Interview of Alan Rohrbach (2008)

Career Development from Runner to Institutional Research, Individuals vs. Institutional Advantages on the Evolutionary Trend View, and a radical Spring 2008 thought.

Back in 2008 successful floor trader Craig Weil hosted the Saturday morning radio show Traders Talk Live. On May 24th Alan Rohrbach was very happy to be his guest for a review of how he had evolved out of extensive derivatives business experience into international institutional market advisory. In addition to all of that background, Alan also offered a very interesting, and at the time highly contrarian, market view.

This perspective on trend analysis and the institutional trader mindset is useful education as well as background on Alan Rohrbach’s career evolution.

I: Introduction and how he was drawn to market analysis (6 min.) Listen to MP3

II: Mentors, and moving on to institutional consultation (9 min.) Listen to MP3

III: Institutional vs. individual: ‘evolutionary’ trend view (6 min.) Listen to MP3

IV: Questionable equities basing, and ‘radical’ tech thought (6 min.) Listen to MP3

The Jack B. Show is CME member and popular market observer Jack Bouroudjian's radio show. He has many highly esteemed guests, and Alan feels fortunate to have been a frequent cohost. The topics range from the political side of the equation that has become so much more important in recent years to the fundamental economic and financial factors along with the obvious focus on Alan's macro-technical views of specific markets.

(These are full show mp3 files, and might take a minute to download on some systems.)

May 29, 2013: Jack explores how the increasing P/E multiple has not just boosted equities overall, but has turned up in the very limited corrections. He brings in Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International to discuss more of the specifics of the trend decisions. They also review the stock/bond comparative trend activity, and look out into the typically heavy economic data which is coming into late week. Listen to MP3

May 20, 2013: Jack waxes eloquent on why it’s NOT a 1999 steroidal equities rally with such modest P/E ratios at present compared to back then. Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach joins him to note how some aspects are similar to 1999, and how the E in P/E is the vital factor… along with discussion of Europe, Asia, and the key S&P 500 future trading levels. Listen to MP3

May 14, 2013: Jack reviews the ways in which available capital is seeking higher returns in the equities, and it may become a bit of self-fulfilling prophesy on near term waves of investors finally coming into the market. It is both a forced financial event driven by the central banks’ low interest rate policy, yet also an acknowledgement that the economic data is getting better. As Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International adds, “Good news is good news.” That shows up in a lot of ways which Jack and Rohr discuss, yet with just a bit of caution coming from the commodity markets and Australian dollar. Listen to MP3

May 8, 2013: Jack explores the fine points of ‘market psychology’ that are more important than usual with the equities at new all-time highs. Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International joins him with some interesting macro-technical perspective… especially on the key indications that can sharpen price level expectations in this ethereal new high ground. Listen to MP3

April 30, 2013: Another spin around the world with Jack and Rohr. Jack begins by noting the now extreme anomaly of strong equities being matched by still strong government bonds. That takes them through discussions of Europe, the likely ECB rate cut on Thursday, China’s economic evolution, and right back to what it means for the Fed, the economy and the US markets. Listen to MP3

April 23, 2013: Around the World in 30 Minutes. Jack begins with all the reasons the Boston bombers were misguided. Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach joins him for a tour of how well US equities held in the wake of that, and the relative weakness of Europe with bond markets still signalling that there are underlying problems. That is confirmed to some degree by weakness in general commodities and Chinese economic performance. Yet Jack also notes just how wrong all the doom mongers have been, and that their extremism is a disservice to investors. Listen to MP3

April 9, 2013: Jack explored the reasons QE doesn’t always mean money is available for bank loans. In spite of that the US equities rally is back on track after the Employment interruption last week, and the bond markets are also still at very low yields. Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach joins him to discuss that anomaly, and Europe and the reasons why some technical traders are struggling in the current markets while others thrive. Listen to MP3

April 3, 2013: Jack noted that concerns not just about North Korea and Europe but also the Basel III bank capital requirements and natural tax time selling were likely responsible for the extent of the Wild Wednesday stock market selloff. He was joined by Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach on the degree to which there are still healthcare reform and other risks to the US economy. Yet even Rohr had to allow that the key techncial levels were holding into a very key Central Bank Thursday and Friday’s US Employment report. Listen to MP3

March 28, 2013: Jack discusses the waning influence of the latest European Crisis in Cyprus, right in line with the tecnical and psychological resilience of the US equities. Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach joins him on those topics as well as the resilience of the primary goverment bonds and strength of the US dollar. They also warn listeners about the Monday holiday in Europe and the UK skewing next week’s report releases. Listen to MP3

March 19, 2013: Jack discusses the “Fortress Balance Sheet” approach of most major US banks that is restraining lending in the face of Basel III requirements. Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach joins him for a global discussion of Cypress & Europe, US economy and markets, including technical background and indications for the S&P 500, resurgent bonds and the fate of the euro in this critical phase. Listen to MP3

March 12, 2013: Jack discusses the fine points of S&P future price spreads into this week’s March contract expiration. Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach adds the technical analysis aspects of recurring expiration tendencies prior to a far flung discussion. That includes the equities trend and key levels, Europe, Asia and what to look for in the key economic influences later this week and beyond. Listen to MP3

February 27, 2013: Jack discusses whether the impact of US Budget Sequestration will be as bad as some fear. Rohr International President Alan Rohrbach thinks it will be a problem, but not until the employment implications clarify next week. They also review why Italy will not be as much of a problem as some fear, and the major technical trend decision levels in the S&P 500. Later, Ed Pozzuoli, President of Tripp Scott, comes by to talk about his recent Op-Ed in Forbes – President Obama’s Economy Continues to Fizzle – and tells us why he was named “One of the Most Powerful People in Broward County”. Listen to MP3

February 21, 2013: Jack examines how to play the equity market pullback he called last week. And Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International confirms that broader correction has likely begun from their 1526-30 S&P 500 future resistance. He and Jack also shed some light on Europe, and what to look for if the US budget sequestration bites at the end of next week. Listen to MP3

February 13, 2013: Jack discusses constructive State of the Union address, yet are all those plans realistic in the current context? Rohr International President Alan Rohrbach joined to note that they are most likely not… and took a strong view on US budget sequestration would likely occur March 1st. Also discussion of whether there’s a ‘currency war’, Europe, UK inflation, bonds and S&P 500 trend ideas. Listen to MP3

February 5, 2013: Jack discusses how better data and perma-bears’ reversals are assisting equities. Rohr International’s Alan Rohrbach joins to discuss some weak factors in Europe that need to be watched into Thursday’s ECB meeting. Bull and Bear Institute’s Greg Hadley joins Alan for a discussion of the benefits of their new STRAT advisory service collaboration. That combines the best of trend analysis and options structure for public investors. Listen to MP3

January 29, 2013: Jack discusses the weakening bearish factors behind the current equities rally. Rohr International President Alan Rohrbach joins in on the degree to which the stock markets are ignoring some bad news that may come back to haunt them… but not likely until they hit higher levels. Some of the other topics include stock and bond technicals, and the still heavily split economy in Europe along with upcoming economic influences.  Listen to MP3

January 24, 2013: Jack focuses on the resilience of the equities rally as some very prominent “perma-bears” retract their dire warnings. Rohr International, Inc. President Alan Rohrbach joins him to elaborate on how tradeable the markets are in spite of what some folks have said of late. That leads to discussions of Europe, China, and the most interesting insight so far from the Davos World Economic Forum. They also remember the late Barry Lind.  Listen to MP3

January 16, 2013: Jack talks about the resilience of the equity markets in spite of obvious headwinds. Also Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International joins to talk technical trends aspects, Europe, China and Adam Smith.  Listen to MP3

January 9, 2013: Jack discusses the potential upside follow through of the S&P. Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International joins to point out which key technical levels to watch. Also primary government bond downside potential is discussed along with how to view Europe into Thursday's ECB meeting.  Listen to MP3

December 5, 2012: Jack and Alan review why the Fiscal Cliff risk is just the tip of a higher taxation iceberg. Alan shares his views on USA 2013 may be very much like Japan 1997, when higher consumption taxes killed the economy and did not raise revenue. It is all part of the Taxulationism weight on the US economy. Also technicals on various markets.  Listen to MP3

November 28, 2012: In depth discussion of the potentials if the US goes off the Fiscal Cliff, and what if it does not. Also a review of China, Europe and technical tendencies of major markets. (Background noise is Rohr ringing in from the commuter train on the way in to appear with Jack in a CME Market Update segment.)  Listen to MP3

November 21, 2012: Alan drops in for a brief chat with Jack and Jeff Carter on the risks the US is facing while it is Closed for Thanksgiving Day and the rest of the world continues to trade. He points out that there are some important offshore reports, and every once in a while there is critical movement in other trading centers when one of the majors is Closed.  Listen to MP3

November 13, 2012: Jack and Alan discuss how the equities will likely respond well to the extended Fiscal Cliff debate, because it allows for the balance of the Obama agenda to continue to roll forward. That includes no meaningful address of spending that will be good in the short run even if it a major long term problem.  Listen to MP3

November 7, 2012: The market response to the US General Election is the topic, and Alan lays out thye scenario he shared with advisory clients in a Market Alert late on election evening: Worst Case Scenario! The President winning a modest popular majority while still needing to deal with a solid Republican House of Representatives is a recipe for gridlock on the critical issues surrounding the Fiscal Cliff negotiations.  Listen to MP3