2017/05/02 Commentary: First 100 Days Redux
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Commentary: Tuesday, May 2, 2017
First 100 Days Redux
After last Wednesday’s Commentary: First 100 Days post the analysis of just what Donald Trump had accomplished in the 100 days since his inauguration naturally continued to be the focus of quite a bit of various news organizations’ analysis. Yet other than the occasional informed view from a history professor, it was roundly biased across most of the media sources. Those on the Left of course went out of their way to discuss how he had been a failure compared to previous modern US Presidents. While our regular readers know how much we respect the Financial Times, an opinion writer had a major lead article in FTWeekend on 100 days in the court of King Donald that was very negative and had some key inaccuracies. Anyone interested in what Trump has accomplished and the record of his two immediate predecessors should read last Wednesday’s post.
Beyond relatively subjective personal jibes and specific program criticisms, the FT article went on to cite political advisor David Gergen on Trump’s shortcomings. As Gergen is a consummate Washington DC insider, his criticism of Trump is highly slanted. He asserts that “…compared with Obama and Bush… …Trump has had the ‘worst opening 100 days’ of any contemporary president”, going on to note that Roosevelt is the ‘gold standard’.
No kidding. As we clearly explained the reasons for that gap with Roosevelt for all subsequent Presidents in last Wednesday’s post, we suggest a read for anyone who has not done so. Yet he is also wrong that Trump’s accomplishments fare poorly compared to his two immediate predecessors. Outside of the major stimulus package that was handed to Barack Obama upon his inauguration (see last Wednesday’s post on the reason for the timing), Trump had actually signed many more ‘laws’ (which we will revisit below.)
Yet the Right is also not blameless in the highly opinionated assessments, including quite a bit of sycophantic gushing over the Trump accomplishments in spite of the healthcare reform legislation failure. And the President himself has been typically bombastic, stating that he has accomplished more than anyone else in history in his first 100 days.(??!) Perhaps he’s never heard of Franklin Roosevelt? It’s equally disconcerting.
Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a concise ‘macro’ assessment and Market Observations are much the same as last Tuesday morning’s update in the lower section of last Monday’s ‘HUUUGE! Redux’ post, there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.
2017/05/04 Commentary: ‘Trump-On’ – ‘Trump-Off’
2017/05/04 Commentary: ‘Trump-On’ – ‘Trump-Off’
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Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
Commentary: Thursday, May 4, 2017
‘Trump-On’ – ‘Trump-Off’
As noted previous, the problem is the Republicans are predictably getting no assistance at all from Democrats with replacing the flawed previous health insurance program. And the diverse demands of conservative and moderate factions within the Republican Party had also prevented them from passing the bill on their own last month.
Therefore, the bottom line on so many stalled markets appearing to be the proverbial ‘deer caught in the headlights’ is directly related to whether Trump administration reforms look likely to succeed or significantly vexed on the current ‘Trump trade’. It is a ‘Trump-On’ - ‘Trump-Off’ market into the next vote on the Trump administration’s American Health Care Act (AHCA) scheduled for today… or if the votes to pass it are not confirmed, maybe Friday. Of course that is a pseudonym for the more familiar alternating ‘risk-on’ and ‘risk-off’ psychologies that regularly affect market psychology. Yet these rapid reversals on the potential success of the AHCA vote have left the markets stuck instead of inspired.
That is in part due to the contingencies noted in several posts last month on the AHCA being a necessary precursor to getting the more important tax reform right. While the administration might deny that, we feel (along with other observers) that without a clear fiscal bottom line on government health insurance costs it will be very hard to present a definitive tax reform program. So a lot of market psychology is riding on the AHCA vote.
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.
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