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2013/10/07: Commentary: Load, Lock, Shoot Foot

October 7, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Monday, October 7, 2013.

 

Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

No vote in House for ‘clean’ CR. Is this right? …well, ‘correct’ anyway. It’s definitely Right… as in Speaker Boehner’s crushing need to respect the wishes of the politically well-Right of center Republican Reps in the House.  And this came out in impressive fashion in Sunday’s political talk shows. Huffington Post’s article and many other sources dispute Boehner’s assertion that the votes would not be there in the House for a ‘clean’ Continuing Resolution (and by implication a clean Debt Ceiling hike... the far more critical horizon.)

And in fact, the entire overreach of first demanding a repeal and then shifting to a delay in Obamacare implementation was such a benighted tactic by the political Right, that it’s dimensions are hard to fathom for anyone but the most politically attuned. And as we have recently noted once again, most Americans are not that politically astute or engaged. And most foreigners simply consider a sign of (as we noted in a recent post) ‘political stupidity’ (thanks to the Financial Times’ John Authers for that one.)

As we pondered the extended damaged to what had been a recently resurgent Republican Party (until now), it just gets worse and worse. The Tea Party faction does indeed have some very good ideas for how to evolve a smaller, more efficient government. Yet the tactics of the party leaders they are pushing for results in Washington DC are burying whatever chance the Republicans may have had to achieve further electoral gains.

Which is why we view all of the sound and fury over the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) being bad law implementing bad policy is likely right in the final analysis. All the more reason the overly ardent, yet poorly thought, approach of the Tea Party’s allies in the House and Senate leadership is indeed a case of…

Load. Lock. Shoot Foot.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged ACA, Affordable Care Act, Bernanke, Boehner, budget, Congress, Continuing Resolution, Debt Ceiling, deficit, Democrat, economic, macro-technical, Obamacare, Republican, Tea Party, Washington DC

2013/10/07: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed Income, FX

October 7, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, October 7, 2013.

EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

While the TrendView Videos are from after Friday’s US Close, they remain very relevant for the trend decisions into early this week based on the influence of the US budget impasse. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income video opens with the typical short-term and intermediate-term view of the S&P 500 future, the other equities from 04:40, with govvies analysis beginning at 06:40, and short money forwards from 10:30.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the right-hand sidebar link

The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK videos are accessible below.

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis

 

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Australia, Boehner, Bund, comments, Congress, DAX, debt, Debt Ceiling, dollar, economic, equities, Euro, Fed, fiscal, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, Gilt, Japan, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, Obama, political, Pound, S&P 500, T-note, technical, TREND, US dollar, VIDEO, Yen

2013/10/04: Commentary: Your Government at Work… or NOT!!

October 4, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Friday, October 4, 2013.

CNBC – Hampton Pearson with the September US Employment Report (which everyone knew was not going to be released due to the government shutdown) from the US Labor Department

And the number is… ???????

Can’t tell ya. Don’t know.

What a way to run a railroad. And here are the wizards in Congress at the switches again, hoping they can time the shift into continuing operations timely… as in before the US government train heads off the cliff again.

And as we noted yesterday, while we hope and expect Congress will find a way to pass not just a Continuing Resolution on spending but also the far more critical Debt Ceiling increase timely to avoid an October 17th US government default, with these folks you never know. And the ‘failure is not an option’ crowd is back out in full flower. But as we noted on Tuesday, they also held that view right up to the actual failure back in August 2011. So no real cause for comfort there.

The Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments are also already available via the link in the right-hand column. [Please note we did not post a TrendView Video analysis from yesterday afternoon because it was obvious the S&P 500 and other markets were slipping into a quiet finish for the week. That is consistent with our Global analysis from yesterday morning. Our full Global analysis based on today’s Close will be available over the weekend.]

As a bonus today, there is more Commentary video on the degree to which the US budget gridlock can be readily solved if…

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Rohr Market Research Tagged Boehner, budget, cliff, CNBC, Congress, Debt Ceiling, Democrat, economy, Employment report, FT, GOP, Labor Department, Obama, Pearson, Reid, Republican, Ryan, US Debt Ceiling

2013/10/03: Commentary: Got that old ‘2011’ feeling back… and not just us!!

October 3, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

COMMENTARY: Thursday, October 3, 2013.

 

Crisis? What US government funding crisis?

Uh-Oh… even the Prez is allowing this one ain’t good!! We don’t agree with a lot of what the President has put in place (in fact we disagree with most of it.) Yet he was right to caution that markets are likely being too sanguine in the face of these unyielding positions on both sides.

You’d think from the way the markets are behaving there is no crisis looming in the US. This could be a major bit of cognitive dissonance brewing for the investor class (including more than a few ostensibly well-informed fund managers.) What we are witnessing is a short term disconnect that most folks expect will be readily corrected, yet which might carry more dire implications even across the short term.

While not wanting to play Cassandra, this all feels a lot more like July 2011 Redux than anything seen in any of the mini-crises since then.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2011, Continuing Resolution, crisis, debate, Debt Ceiling, Democrats, ECB, economic, equities, ESM, Euro-zone, govvies, Independent, lost, LTRO, markets. political, Obama, OMT, perspective, Republican, review, S&P 500, Sovereign Debt Crisis, stupidity, Tea Party

2013/10/03: TrendView VIDEO Analysis: Equities, Fixed, FX

October 3, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Members

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, October 3, 2013.

EQUITIES & FIXED INCOME

While the TrendView Videos are from earlier this morning, they remain very relevant for the trend decisions into later on today and likely even into Friday. The timeline of the Equities and Fixed Income video opens with some of the macro (i.e. fundamental) considerations and typical short-term and intermediate-term view of the S&P 500 future from, shifts to the other equities from 05:50, with govvies analysis beginning at 10:10, and short money forwards from 17:05 with a brief return to the S&P 500 future at 20:15.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE Analysis and Outlook below.

The Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is also already available via the link in the right-hand column.

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video analysis

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Australia, Bund, comments, DAX, debt, dollar, equities, Euro, fixed income, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, Gilt, Japan, macro, NIKKEI, Pound, S&P 500, T-note, technical, TREND, US dollar, VIDEO, Yen
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