Rohr International's Blog ...evolved capital markets insights

Informed observations on international capital markets & global politico-economics ...with extended ideas on major market trend implications

  • Required Reading Risk Disclaimer
  • About Rohr
  • Subscription Echelons & Fees
  • Tours
  • Contact Us
  • Required Reading Risk Disclaimer
  • About Rohr
  • Subscription Echelons & Fees
  • Tours
  • Contact Us

2016/10/01 Commentary: Dual Dystopia?

October 1, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/10/01 Commentary: Dual Dystopia?

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Saturday, October 1, 2016

Dual Dystopia?  

dystopiacityscape-160930A ‘dystopia’ is the opposite of a utopia. Among quite a few definitions involving totalitarian machinations, a dystopia is a community or society that is undesirable or frightening. That is mostly the focus of writers who create fictional societies to make a statement about negative aspects of real world governments and social environments. Yet due to combined degradation of politics in many developed countries and the lack of courage of their central banks to focus on the most critical issues, the current situation is closer to dual dystopian conditions than many observers are inclined to allow.

This is a politico-economic assessment, as politics are coming ever closer to upsetting economic performance necessary to maintain faith in free market institutions. Addressing the political side first, the ‘informed citizens’ envisioned by the United States founding fathers as necessary to maintain the democratic process have mostly vanished into the digital age vortex. This is neither a surprise any more than it was avoidable.

In the mid-1960’s a Canadian media genius actually saw the prominence of digital media coming prior to most others. Marshal McLuhan asserted that new electronic visual media would destroy existing social structures. (We remain big fans.) He died in 1980. That is interesting in light of the World Wide Web not officially coming into existence until 1989. In fact, McLuhan was using his very advanced scholastic and artistic awareness of the nature of media (going all the way back to the invention of the phonetic alphabet) to anticipate extended impact of the still fledgling US cable television system.

Why is all of this important to the now dystopian (at least in the negative proclamations of the leading US presidential candidates) sense of American society? It is due to McLuhan’s prediction that the ability of different people in the same geographic area to select only the content which agreed with their views would destroy the sense of community which used to unite neighbors. One can only imagine what he would have thought about handheld devices that constantly bombarded people with only the content they preferred from the sources they considered credible. Goodbye social structure. Hello dystopian soundbite electioneering and tabloid-style quasi-news. And there’s more… 

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, Abenomics, academic, analysis, bank, bias, BoE, BoJ, Bundestag, central, central bank, Clinton, comments, compromise, confluence, debate, Deflation, Democratic, Disinflation, dovish, Draghi, dystopia, dystopian, ECB, economic, El-Erian, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, FOMC, GDP, Germany, hawkish, IMF, imports, inflation, infuriatingly, interest, interest rate, macro, macro-technical, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, OECD, policymakers, presidential, Productivity, QE, RBA, redux, reform, regulation, regulatory, Republican, Retail, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, Sales, structural, structural reform, tax, technical, Trade, TREND, Trump, World Bank, Yellen

2016/09/28 Commentary: Advantage Clinton

September 28, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/09/28 Commentary: Advantage Clinton

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Advantage Clinton

clintontrumpdebatebothtalking-160926-160928As articulated in Tuesday morning’s brief email note, the verdict of neutral observers after Monday evening’s US Presidential debate seems to be ‘Advantage Clinton’. And we grudgingly agree, even if our bottom line is that neither of these folks is qualified to be President. While we are not at all convinced that Secretary Clinton’s proposals on various fronts are the best way forward for the US and global economy, she won on points. That is due to sticking with the aggressive presentation of her program while she managed to accomplish her team’s goal of baiting Donald Trump into being reactive to criticism rather than pushing his vision after the first 20 minutes. The picture is indicative of a lot of what transpired. Mr. Trump actively either reverted to his jester role in response to various Clinton statements, or interrupted both her and talented, very balanced moderator Lester Holt to counter anything he felt was less than accurate (in his humble opinion.)

The second problem for Mr. Trump was his seeming inability to pounce on multiple openings where Clinton was vulnerable when the debate came around to topics like cyber security, nuclear proliferation, and so on. Obamacare’s burgeoning failure was never mentioned regarding the economic plight of the middle class. For anyone less than the most ardent Trump supporters this raised questions over whether he is able to keep in mind a full range of knowledge on key topics.

That would be a daunting weakness for any US presidential candidate; it is especially troubling for Trump in light of his claim that he understands more than almost anyone about all of the major issues facing the United States. If he has trouble connecting the dots for more effective responses on a limited number of topics in Monday evening’s debate, how much can the critical undecided US voters trust he will perform well in negotiations with other countries he has highlighted as essential?

Just to be clear, this is not an endorsement of the far more well-prepared Mrs. Clinton. Being somewhat conservative we would have preferred that Mr. Trump would have done better. Yet unless he can move beyond the rote talking points that serve him so well with his base, we are not at all convinced he should indeed be the next President.   

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, Abenomics, academic, analysis, Asia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Brexit, Bund, China, Clinton, comments, compromise, confluence, crude, Crude Oil, currency, DAX, debate, debt, Deflation, Democratic, Disinflation, dollar, dovish, Draghi, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, hawkish, Hole, IMF, imports, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, infuriatingly, instability, interest, interest rate, Jackson, Jackson Hole, Japan, labor, LEAVE, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, MPC, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, OECD, oil, PMI, policymakers, Pound, presidential, Productivity, QE, RBA, redux, Republican, Retail, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Sales, Services, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Trump, UK, US dollar, wholesale, Yellen, Yellen put, Yen

2016/09/23 Commentary: Infuriatingly Academic (late)

September 23, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/09/23 Commentary: Infuriatingly Academic (late)

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Friday, September 23, 2016

Infuriatingly Academic

yellenratechangeanymeet-160224-160920This is a very pointed ‘macro’ follow up to our extensive post-Jackson Hole reviews of why the FOMC was NOT going to hike Wednesday afternoon. Please see Tuesday evening’s Commentary: FOMC Won’t Hike post and all previous recent posts for our extended reasoning on the US and global weakness that is rightfully restraining the Fed. This remains disconcerting in the wake of all the hawkish rhetoric since before and after last December. The picture of Chair Yellen is not from Wednesday afternoon’s press conference, but rather her February 24th congressional testimony. It makes plain just how hawkish the Fed remained after last December’s first hike in almost a decade.

And of course, not all areas are infuriated. In fact, equities are rightfully rather elated on the seeming return of a full ‘Goldilocks’ psychology on the FOMC ‘no action’. Govvies are also very firm on the absence of any upward pressure on short-term yields, as only the disappointed asset is the US dollar that had been hoping for the FOMC hike. While the weakness of the latter has been relatively limited against developed economy currencies, the more rate sensitive emerging currencies have extended the rallies which started recently on the evolving expectation that the FOMC would not indeed hike Wednesday.

So what is so upsetting about what the Fed is or, more appropriately, is not doing? Certainly the full FOMC statement (our mildly marked-up version) and projections provide good reasons for the Fed’s continued circumspection in spite of upbeat economic rhetoric. And Chair Yellen certainly provided a credible, in-depth and nuanced explanation of how various factors have combined to encourage a bit more caution (more on that below.)

Yet there was also another seemingly minor yet overall very telling indication on “other policymakers” becoming involved. This leads to a very pointed question we will revisit below on why the Fed isn’t doing more to encourage actions necessary to improve the US (and global) economy that would solve the low growth and low inflation problems.

Yet first to illustrate it is not necessary to be a politico-economic or finance expert to understand the real problem, note this recent shift in US public opinion…

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, Abenomics, analysis, Asia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Brexit, Bund, China, comments, compromise, confluence, crude, Crude Oil, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Democratic, Disinflation, dollar, dovish, Draghi, Eatwell, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, Gallup, GDP, Germany, Gilt, Goldilocks, govvies, hawkish, Hole, IMF, imports, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, infuriated, infuriatingly, instability, interest, interest rate, Jackson, Jackson Hole, Japan, labor, LEAVE, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, MPC, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, OECD, oil, PMI, policymakers, Pound, Productivity, QE, RBA, redux, Republican, Retail, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, Ryan, S&P 500, Sales, Services, T-note, Taylor, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, wholesale, Yellen, Yellen put, Yen

2016/09/20 Commentary: FOMC Won’t Hike (late)

September 20, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/09/20 Commentary: FOMC Won’t Hike (late)

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Tuesday, September 20, 2016

FOMC Won’t Hike

fedhikethreatcyclegraph-160915This may seem to merely confirm what has become a consensus view. As of this morning 91% of market   participants have come around to feeling there is no basis for FOMC to hike rates Wednesday afternoon. Yet this sentiment was not nearly as strong into and immediately after the Fed’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium ‘hawk-fest’ three-and-a-half weeks ago. Due to stronger US data prior to Jackson Hole there was a belief by the ‘Street’ that the outpouring of hawkish indications from many Fed governors into, at and after the symposium might indicate the chance for a September rate hike was very good. Über-hawk Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer was back to suggesting there could still be two hikes in 2016, and Eric Rosengren could not resist resurrecting the specious cautionary drivel that things might get so strong it would be risky for the Fed to NOT hike in September.

As we noted again (this has been going on for well over a year now) in our September 7th Goldie’s Back post, “First there was a spate of somewhat improved data. That led to the predictably more hawkish Fed minions’ opinions at the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium two weeks ago, and in other venues. Yet, key data points in the wake of all that weakened enough to once again cast doubt on the Fed’s ability to raise rates. It is reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s quip in his 1980 debate with Jimmy Carter (after Carter cited some oft-repeated social statistics)…

“There you go again.” And here was the Fed once again pushing the ‘normalcy bias’ on the improved economy needing further rate hikes, and being wrong-footed once again by the subsequent weaker data. This has been a regular cycle since the FOMC raised rates last December, and predicted there would be four more in 2016.” While we do not normally like to quote ourselves, it seems it is back to every bit of a “bad news is good news” psychology. That will likely see the equities able to rally once again if the Fed does not actually hike. That is likely a good reason the govvies will also rally after not managing to do so on the recent serial weak data (likely out of respect for the Fed.) Thanks to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research for the wonderfully straightforward cycle graphic above.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, Abenomics, analysis, Asia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Brainard, Brexit, Bund, China, comments, confluence, crude, Crude Oil, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, dovish, Draghi, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, Goldilocks, govvies, hawkish, Hole, IMF, imports, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, interest, interest rate, Jackson, Jackson Hole, Japan, Kaplan, labor, LEAVE, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, MPC, mugged, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, OECD, oil, PMI, Pound, Productivity, QE, RBA, redux, Retail, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, Rosengren, S&P 500, Sales, Services, T-note, Tarullo, technical, tightrope, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, wholesale, Yellen, Yellen put, Yen

2016/09/14 Quick Update: Equities Still a Tightrope Walk (late)

September 14, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/09/14 Quick Update: Equities Still a Tightrope Walk (late)

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Equities Still a Tightrope Walk

balonedgebeach-160914The US equities maintained their equilibrium into lower supports today. Yet continued weakness below the bottom of the most important mid-July through early September trading range congestion (front month 2,155) by the December contract (front month after September contract expiration tomorrow) still leaves near-term stability of markets a real ‘tightrope walk’. And if it slips below the key lower supports, the next phase is likely to be quite a bit more troubling than the ‘day at the beach’ for the talented tightrope walker in the picture. We note this for two reasons, with the first being sheer Evolutionary Trend View technical factors. The second is how that is going to be impacted by late week economic data releases on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next Wednesday.

On latter we noted in Monday’s Commentary: So What Just Happened? that ‘Goldilocks’ got mugged by the Fed hawks. In yet another display of the Fed’s rampant ‘normalcy bias’. Since the Jackson Hole Hawk-fest the Fed’s minions have continued to beat the drum on as many as two more rate hikes this year. Hawkish members among the Fed’s minions weren’t going to let silly things like two weeks of serial weak economic data get in the way of their attempt to convince everyone that things are back to ‘normal’, and at risk strengthening much further. Monday’s post already reviewed the litany of woes that has been the US economic data since the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium.

However, into Thursday morning’s extended macro influences that will become a bit of a ‘rearview mirror’ influence. Possibly that weakness will offset any strength in the next set of US data on Thursday that is preceded by Australian Employment, the Swiss National Bank rate decisions, UK Retail Sales, Euro-zone CPI and Trade Balance, Spanish and French bond auctions, and Bank of England’s rate decision and statement only (no press conference this time.) Then it will be onto US Retail Sales, PPI, Empire (NY State) Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories.

All of which leads into much less data on Friday, and also creates room for reassessment of the Fed’s rate intentions next week. Will the equities maintain their recent balance?

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, Abenomics, analysis, Asia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Brainard, Brexit, Bund, China, comments, confluence, crude, Crude Oil, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, dovish, Draghi, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, Goldilocks, govvies, hawkish, Hole, IMF, imports, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, interest, interest rate, Jackson, Jackson Hole, Japan, Kaplan, labor, LEAVE, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, MPC, mugged, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, OECD, oil, PMI, Pound, Productivity, QE, RBA, redux, Retail, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, Rosengren, S&P 500, Sales, Services, T-note, Tarullo, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, wholesale, Yellen, Yellen put, Yen
Older posts
Newer posts →
  • Members Area

    • Sign-up here!
    • Sign-in here!
  • Rohr International Full Website Link

    Rohr's Website

  • Rohr International Overview

    • Alan Rohrbach Bio
    • Technicals are Rosetta Stone… and a ‘Little Secret’ About Rigid Schools
    • Rohr’s ‘Essential’ Macro-Technical Analysis Full Background Video… Benefit from the In-Depth Concept and Major Historic Applied Example
    • ‘Big Fed Cut’ with Phil Flynn at CME, also Biden with both “Meaningless” in the face of COVID-19 Surge
    • NOV 20 ‘Santa Baby!’ Follow-Up with Phil Flynn Post-FOMC (OCT 30) and Still Quite Bullish US Equities
    • Pre-FOMC (OCT 30) Interview at CME with Price Group’s Phil Flynn predicting further US equities rally
    • The ROHR Insight Advantage
    • Prescient Rohr Early 2008 Interview 12th Anniversary Relevant Lookback
  • ROHR FT Split Bond Views Letter

    January 12, 2024 - Strong Differing Bond Views Maybe Just a Sideshow
  • ROHR FT 2007 Déjà Vu Letter

    December 8, 2023 - Late 2023 Bond Market Looking A Lot Like mid-2007
  • ROHR FT ‘Medium’ Driver Letter

    November 27, 2017 - Why 'Medium' in the Electric Age is driving polarization
  • ROHR Financial Times ‘Risk’ Letter

    October 20, 2017 - Key View: Massive 'Tame' Passive Investment a Real Risk
  • Focused Rohr Expertise Centers

    Rohr Benefits, Perspective & Analytics Samples in a Nutshell. Take a Look…
  • Rohr Alert!! Active S&P 500 views

    • Current Rohr Trend Alert!! and Extended S&P 500 Oscillator Levels
    • Rohr Trend Alert!! Archives Available on a 2 Week Delay
  • Rohr Global Research Note

    • Current Rohr Research Note
    • Rohr Research Note Archive – Available on a 2 Week Delay
  • Rohr International Weekly Report & Event Color-Coded Calendar

    • Current Bi-Weekly Calendar
    • Bi-Weekly International Calendar Archives
  • Better Market Ideas from Independent Analysis…

    Advice both Institutional Investors and Highly Active Dealers/Traders want. And that is NOT at all just our view. Take a Look…
  • Blog Echelons Content & Fee Tables

    • Subscription Table with Fees. ‘Contact Us’ for 14-Day Free Trial
  • Rohr Global Services with Fees

    • Rohr Global Services: Basic Blog onto Full Institutional Advisory
  • Media

    • Rohr’s ‘Essential’ Macro-Technical Analysis Full Background Video… Benefit from In-Depth Concept and Major Historic Applied Example
    • Executive Series Topical Q&A with Ceres Limited’s Brian Jenkins
    • Television
    • Radio
    • Print
    • ‘Teachable Moment’ Analysis Videos from key price trend turning points. Some vintage (2013), some current, all relevant insights. (Accessible for Gold and Platinum subscribers only)
    • Rohr’s Macro-Market Daily e-zine with Multifaceted International Perspective and Broad-Based News (click the title to access the paper)
  • Rohr Website Pages

    • ‘New/Old’ Markets Paradigm
    • ROHR: Methodology & Perspectives
    • ROHR Client Testimonials
    • Alan Rohrbach’s LinkedIn Profile (requires LinkedIn membership)
  • Rohr-Blog Post Calendar

    October 2025
    M T W T F S S
     12345
    6789101112
    13141516171819
    20212223242526
    2728293031  
    « Jul    
  • Archives

  • Hottest Rohr-Blog Topics

    analysis Asia Australia BoE BoJ Bund China comments confluence DAX debt dollar Draghi ECB economic employment equities Euro Europe Fed fixed income FOMC Foreign Exchange FTSE GDP Germany Gilt Indicators inflation instability Japan macro macro-technical NIKKEI PMI Pound QE S&P 500 T-note technical TREND UK US dollar Yellen Yen
Copyright © 2011 Rohr International's Blog ...evolved capital markets insights
Top