2016/11/08 Commentary: Election Day USA: Stealth
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COMMENTARY: Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Election Day USA: Stealth
Stealth? We say that because so many of the classically clear indications on everything from candidate popularity and other polls to early voting based on geography and party affiliation are less credible this time around. This brief further assessment is a supplement to the broader overview in last Friday morning’s extensive “Trump Trauma or Election Dipsy-Doodle?” post on likely market responses. And the only rational approach to markets is to repeat our admonition: THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO INCENTIVE TO HOLD ANY INTERMEDIATE TERM MARKET POSITIONS INTO THE U.S. ELECTION TODAY. It has tightened to the point where nobody really knows what will occur any more than they ‘knew’ the outcome of the UK Brexit vote back in June.
Yet in addition to all of the analysis of why the equities and other asset classes in their wake might see rather extensive two-way swings once the results are in this evening, there are also more unknowns in this campaign than almost any other in memory. There will be a further exploration of that below. Yet for now suffice to say that the pre-election polls might be less reliable than in previous cycles. There are certain groups who in particular might favor Mr. Trump, yet could have been hesitant to say so.
Just to be clear, this is not some variation on Mr. Trump’s assertion that the polls on various topics are ‘rigged.’ And we most certainly disagree with any statement regarding the actual voting is rigged. While it might be possible for outside interests to hack the online voter registration rolls, actually changing any votes in the US election voting is almost impossible for reasons we will revisit below.
There is also the issue of the early voting indications. The Democrats are a bit depressed about the weaker African-American early voting. That points to the likelihood there will be a similarly diminished turnout in the actual voting today compared to 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama was at the top of their ticket. Yet especially based on the derisive Donald Trump comments toward Latinos early in the campaign, they are ecstatic about atypically strong early voting in Hispanic districts. Yet there is a question whether those votes (and the ones cast in person today) are as strongly for Mrs. Clinton as they suppose.
In addition to that and other aspects of the pre-election polling reviewed below, there is a good chance neither candidate will fulfill their most aggressive election promises.
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options.
2016/11/09 Commentary: Shocker… Market Response Too!
2016/11/09 Commentary: Shocker… Market Response Too!
© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
COMMENTARY: Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Shocker… Market Response Too!
As it is important in the wake of the election surprise, the extended portion of this opening analysis will go directly to a bit of the most telling market responses. And in that regard, the extended market responses after the initial knee-jerk equities selling is equally as shocking (if not more so) than the sheer electoral result. Or not. Please refer back to our Commentary: Trump Trauma or Election Dipsy-Doodle? post from last Friday morning for the indications of how a Trump Presidency is actually going to better for the US economy (and global one as well) and equities than the policies planned by Hillary Clinton.
In fact, the core of that viewpoint goes back to contrasts highlighted in our October 1st Dual Dystopia? post. While there was quite a bit more in last Friday’s post, the basic thought was that Donald Trump was the worst possible messenger for the far more constructive lower taxes and less regulation message. That was not just a variation on a theme in this case… it was in stark contrast to what was being offered by the other side.
And while we thought it might allow for an initial sharp downside equities reaction due to other, less friendly Trump trade and immigration pronouncements, it just is not the case. Maybe this is less shocking than many would think. The markets have the capacity to look past the immediate ‘received wisdom’ to reflect the intermediate-term outlook. In this instance it is possible they are coming to the same conclusions we did in our Tuesday post’s “It ain’t ever going to happen” concluding section regarding the more outlandish policies on both sides (and not the impossibility of a Trump victory.)
That is worth repeating right away prior to jumping into that brief critical market review.
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options.
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