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2016/11/09 Commentary: Shocker… Market Response Too!

November 9, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/11/09 Commentary: Shocker… Market Response Too!

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Shocker… Market Response Too!

trumpsmilepointingg-160825Even though we pointed out in Tuesday morning’s Commentary: Election Day USA: Stealth post that there were undercurrents that meant “clear indications on everything from candidate popularity and other polls to early voting based on geography and party affiliation are less credible this time around”, even we were a bit shocked that “The Donald” and his team actually pulled it off. Yet it is a measure of just how much disenfranchised older white workers and even a select subset of younger voters were fed up with the ‘business as usual’ inside dealing and advantage to the largest and richest which the Washington DC establishment has supported over the past sixteen years. (That’s right, through the George W. Bush administration as well.)

As it is important in the wake of the election surprise, the extended portion of this opening analysis will go directly to a bit of the most telling market responses. And in that regard, the extended market responses after the initial knee-jerk equities selling is equally as shocking (if not more so) than the sheer electoral result. Or not. Please refer back to our Commentary: Trump Trauma or Election Dipsy-Doodle? post from last Friday morning for the indications of how a Trump Presidency is actually going to better for the US economy (and global one as well) and equities than the policies planned by Hillary Clinton.

In fact, the core of that viewpoint goes back to contrasts highlighted in our October 1st Dual Dystopia? post. While there was quite a bit more in last Friday’s post, the basic thought was that Donald Trump was the worst possible messenger for the far more constructive lower taxes and less regulation message. That was not just a variation on a theme in this case… it was in stark contrast to what was being offered by the other side.

And while we thought it might allow for an initial sharp downside equities reaction due to other, less friendly Trump trade and immigration pronouncements, it just is not the case. Maybe this is less shocking than many would think. The markets have the capacity to look past the immediate ‘received wisdom’ to reflect the intermediate-term outlook. In this instance it is possible they are coming to the same conclusions we did in our Tuesday post’s “It ain’t ever going to happen” concluding section regarding the more outlandish policies on both sides (and not the impossibility of a Trump victory.)

That is worth repeating right away prior to jumping into that brief critical market review.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, analysis, bond, Brexit, Clinton, comments, confluence, currency, Dipsy-Doodle, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, fixed income, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, interest, interest rate, LEAVE, macro, macro-technical, market, markets, Obama, Pound, President, presidential, redux, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Trump, UK, US dollar, voting

2016/11/08 Commentary: Election Day USA: Stealth

November 8, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/11/08 Commentary: Election Day USA: Stealth

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Election Day USA: Stealth

amerflagstealthpatch-161108Stealth? We say that because so many of the classically clear indications on everything from candidate popularity and other polls to early voting based on geography and party affiliation are less credible this time around. This brief further assessment is a supplement to the broader overview in last Friday morning’s extensive “Trump Trauma or Election Dipsy-Doodle?” post on likely market responses. And the only rational approach to markets is to repeat our admonition: THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO INCENTIVE TO HOLD ANY INTERMEDIATE TERM MARKET POSITIONS INTO THE U.S. ELECTION TODAY. It has tightened to the point where nobody really knows what will occur any more than they ‘knew’ the outcome of the UK Brexit vote back in June.

Yet in addition to all of the analysis of why the equities and other asset classes in their wake might see rather extensive two-way swings once the results are in this evening, there are also more unknowns in this campaign than almost any other in memory. There will be a further exploration of that below. Yet for now suffice to say that the pre-election polls might be less reliable than in previous cycles. There are certain groups who in particular might favor Mr. Trump, yet could have been hesitant to say so.

Just to be clear, this is not some variation on Mr. Trump’s assertion that the polls on various topics are ‘rigged.’ And we most certainly disagree with any statement regarding the actual voting is rigged. While it might be possible for outside interests to hack the online voter registration rolls, actually changing any votes in the US election voting is almost impossible for reasons we will revisit below.

There is also the issue of the early voting indications. The Democrats are a bit depressed about the weaker African-American early voting. That points to the likelihood there will be a similarly diminished turnout in the actual voting today compared to 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama was at the top of their ticket. Yet especially based on the derisive Donald Trump comments toward Latinos early in the campaign, they are ecstatic about atypically strong early voting in Hispanic districts. Yet there is a question whether those votes (and the ones cast in person today) are as strongly for Mrs. Clinton as they suppose.

In addition to that and other aspects of the pre-election polling reviewed below, there is a good chance neither candidate will fulfill their most aggressive election promises.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, bond, Brexit, Clinton, comments, Dipsy-Doodle, economic, election, employment, equities, fixed income, Foreign Exchange, LEAVE, market, markets, Obama, President, presidential, stealth, Trump, voting

2016/11/04 Commentary: Trump Trauma or Election Dipsy-Doodle?

November 4, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/11/04 Commentary: Trump Trauma or Election Dipsy-Doodle?

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Friday, November 4, 2016

Trump Trauma or Election Dipsy-Doodle?

trumpsplitclintonangry-161102First things first. As we head into the final leg of the 2016 US general election that has seen vitriol and tangential issues (personality and peccadillos) elevated to what were previously unimaginable levels, we repeat the admonition from our notes earlier this week. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO INCENTIVE TO HOLD ANY INTERMEDIATE TERM MARKET POSITIONS INTO THE U.S. ELECTION NEXT TUESDAY. It has tightened to the point where nobody really knows what will occur any more than they ‘knew’ the outcome of the UK Brexit vote back in June.

In fact, the US political landscape will not only be shaped by the decision on the future President of the United States. It will also depend heavily on the results of the ‘down ticket’ races, especially whether the Republicans retain control of the US Senate. (It is far less likely they will lose control of the House of Representatives.)

And in any event, as pointed out in our October 1st “Dual Dystopia post (open to all subscribers) the pundits could have the dire results of an ‘unexpected’ Trump victory as wrong as they had the horrible predictions for the UK LEAVE vote back on June 23rd. The same goes for a Clinton victory. It is hard to imagine how the intermediate term fortunes of the US and global economies and equities are going to be worsened by a candidate proposing lower corporate taxes and regulatory reductions (Trump) versus the one (Clinton) who is promising just the opposite. More on that below.

As far as the broader market impact, the Financial Times’ Jamie Chisholm provided a very good summary of the situation in his Wednesday Markets get Trumped (our mildly marked up version.) We recommend linking out to the additional analysis by some of his FT cohorts offered at the very beginning of his analysis. As you are likely aware at this point, the general sense is that the election went from a Clinton ‘sure thing’ into the end of last week, which all changed on FBI Director James Comey’s letter to various US legislators that based on recent developments he was reopening (or whatever it might be called) the investigation into Secretary Clinton’s private email server.

The primacy of that influence is reinforced by the almost total lack of market response to this morning’s US Employment report. That is in spite of some very interesting data.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, bond, Brexit, Clinton, Comey, comments, confidential, Dipsy-Doodle, economic, election, employment, equities, FBI, fixed income, Foreign Exchange, LEAVE, Lynch, market, markets, Obama, President, presidential, secret, server, Trump, voting

2016/10/27 Quick Update: Govvies on the Move

October 27, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/10/27 Quick Update: Govvies on the Move

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Quick Update: Thursday, October 27, 2016

Govvies on the Move

fastmkttickercolorWe are just back from our brief holiday during the early-mid part of this week, and the volatile movement has shifted into the govvies. On the other hand the equities remain as subdued as the past couple of weeks in spite of an upside flourish at the top of this week. This is interesting once again in the wake of the somewhat improved international economic data that is behind the yields moving up again (i.e. also government bonds coming under pressure.) After a brief December S&P 500 future push above the 2,141.50 interim congestion on Monday, lapsing back below the 2,136 Tolerance of that area on Tuesday’s Close was a clear indication that it is still more comfortable in the 2,141-2,120 range it had maintained since the October 11th pre-FOMC minutes failure into that area. And that still explains a lot about how the US equities can be under pressure in the face of improved data.

For more on the importance of the economic data relative to whether the Fed will actually hike in December see the Thursday October 13th evening Commentary: Fear of Fed…with a twist post. For the more extensive Evolutionary Trend View, see Market Observations in the lower section of last Friday morning’s Draghi a Bit Soggy post (that were updated after last Friday’s US Close.) In spite of the recent price movements, the levels and overall trend psychologies remain quite the same. That is even true for now pressurized govvies, where we articulated the key lower supports toward which they now seem headed. For your ease of access we will revisit those below.

And the one other area which had been in a very strong and even volatile trend at times is foreign exchange. Yet even though the US Dollar Index had rallied strongly, as noted previous that was substantially on the back of the weakness of the heavily weighted euro. The push back above the mid .9600 area opened the door to the test of the early February .9860 significant weekly channel DOWN Break it achieved on weak European data. Now that this has reversed, it remains a very important area that also relates closely to whether EUR/USD can generally hold its 1.0850-00 support this side of 1.0500-1.0450.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, analysis, bias, BoE, bond, Brexit, comments, confluence, currency, data, dovish, durable, Durable Goods, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Gilt, Goods, govvies, hawkish, imports, Indicators, inflation, interest, interest rate, LEAVE, macro, macro-technical, normalcy, normalcy bias, OECD, Pound, QE, redux, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, voting, Yellen

2016/10/21 Commentary: Draghi a Bit Soggy

October 21, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/10/21 Commentary: Draghi a Bit Soggy

© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Friday, October 21, 2016

Draghi a Bit Soggy

ecbdraghipic-160121It was not necessarily the ECB President’s fault that Thursday was less than inspiring. There is just too much that is still pending on the further evolution of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing (QE) program which will be finalized in December. With the other central bank influences from Wednesday’s Bank of Canada interest rate (non-)decision and that afternoon’s Federal Reserve Beige Book out of the way as well, there is not much to inspire the equities or govvies. The leading trend momentum right now is in the foreign exchange on the impressive extended strength of the US Dollar Index. However, even there the US Dollar Index rally is more so reflection of the heavily weighted euro’s weakness. And that is based on all the still weak European and international data that leaves US dollar the default purchase rather than outstanding reasons for secular strength in the greenback.

This all gets back to the reasons for the ECB to likely come up with a more extensive QE tactical plan for once the current program is due to expire in March; even if that will be over the protestations of the less profligate German contingent. However, the result of the further deliberations was to leave Thursday’s press conference opening statement and Q&A full of responses like, “Waiting for further review of the various committee’s suggestions” and “No, it was not discussed.” As such, these were not very inspiring for equities that were waiting for more direction after weakening data.

Quite a bit of that central bank psychology relates back once gain to what in the world the FOMC might actually do in December. In spite of some bright spots, the continued weak international data reinforces the views in our recent posts. Those were last Thursday evening’s Commentary: Fear of Fed…with a twist which has fully updated (from after last Friday’s US Close) Market Observations in the lower section. For anyone who has not read it, there is a very interesting consideration of the changes to FOMC voting members into January that deserves review. There was also Tuesday morning’s very brief Quick Update: Feeble Figures… again that is also reinforced by more recent weak economic data.

HOLIDAY NOTICE: With this week’s central bank influences out of the way with little equities or govvies response, we are taking off the first part of next week to prepare for the more major late month data releases from the end of next week into the following week.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, analysis, bias, BoE, bond, Brexit, CLI, comments, Composite, confluence, currency, data, dovish, Draghi, earnings, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Gilt, govvies, hawkish, Hourly, imports, Indicators, inflation, interest, interest rate, Leading, LEAVE, macro, macro-technical, median, NFP, normalcy, normalcy bias, OECD, Pound, QE, redux, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, voting, Yellen
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