2017/05/18 Commentary: ‘Risk-Off’ Rally Redux
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Commentary: Thursday, May 18, 2017
‘Risk-Off’ Rally Redux
It is not like Wednesday’s US equities selloff (and US dollar weakness along with govvies strength) should have really been a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to the primary driver: The ‘Trump-On’ - ‘Trump-Off’ psychology based on the advanced pricing of the various asset classes in anticipation of implementation of the Trump administration reform and economic stimulus agenda. It was glaringly apparent in the initial failure of the House of Representatives American Health Care Act (AHCA), which was ultimately passed late week two weeks ago. (Was that really just ten trading days ago? Wow.) For more on why that was so important see our anticipatory Commentary: ‘Trump-On’ – ‘Trump-Off’ post from the morning of May 4th (prior to the critical House vote) on the broader critical nature of the AHCA passage. Of course, that was due to the key implications for issues like Trump’s overall leadership as well as having AHCA in place in order to proceed to the even more critical tax reform.
And after AHCA passage that Thursday, it was indeed ‘Trump-On’ once again on the anticipation that the broader Trump reform and infrastructure spending plan could indeed proceed in timely fashion. There was even some sense that the Trump administration finally looking like it could lead and accomplish some things on behalf of the American people might attract cooperation from centrist Democrats (who are a distinct minority these days.) Yet as noted in our recent emailed advice and the WEEKEND: It’s Official: US Politics Broken post, since the Comey Affair maintained its negative influence into last Thursday (substantially on the missteps of the President) it was feeling like ‘Trump-Off’.
That was reinforced by risk-off psychology that should have been more influential on the weekend WannaCry ransomware attack and the breaking story on whatever classified information President Trump shared last week with Russian officials. All of which should have seen the equities weaken early this week instead of rallying Monday into Tuesday, as noted in Tuesday morning’s Commentary: The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally post. So it was easier…
Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as Wednesday morning’s update (lower section) of Tuesday morning’s The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.
2017/05/24 Commentary: Hysterical Headline Hiatus, Greece and Peace?
2017/05/24 Commentary: Hysterical Headline Hiatus, Greece and Peace?
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Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
Commentary: Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Hysterical Headline Hiatus, Greece and Peace?
What folks on the Left will detest as much as unmasking of the lack of balance in favorite sources is the degree to which Fox News Channel (FNC) is indeed “fair and balanced.” As a longtime viewer of FNC along with CNN and CNBC, it is apparent FNC is a bit more favorable to the President and generally to conservatives. The ‘balance’ comes in with FNC also allowing quite a few more well-articulated opposing views, while CNN has only just begun to do so after Hillary Clinton’s loss back in November. CNN also tends to bring on less esteemed conservative guests, making it easier to dismiss their positions.
All of that said, the real point reverts back to the ‘hysterical headlines’ and the degree to which many of them are based on less than solid sources. Even if Trump is a master of the ‘own goal’ in erratic tweets and comments, it must be allowed the mainstream press and the Democratic Party’s Left wing cohorts have been ramping up ‘hair-on-fire’ hysteria on flimsy or misguided grounds (more below.) And there is now a blessed hiatus due to President Trump’s first major foreign soirée. The need for a more tightly scripted message with no needless self-inflicted wounds brings with it a bit of calm… for now.
Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as Wednesday morning’s update (lower section) of last Tuesday morning’s The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.
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