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2017/05/24 Commentary: Hysterical Headline Hiatus, Greece and Peace?

May 24, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/05/24 Commentary: Hysterical Headline Hiatus, Greece and Peace?

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Hysterical Headline Hiatus, Greece and Peace?

The tone of press coverage from the Left has been nothing short of ‘hair-on-fire’ hysteria regarding various perceived and real peccadillos of US President Trump. And even when mainstream press coverage of the administration’s early days is not hysterical, it has still been unusually biased. This is not just our view or that of dedicated Right wingers. It also has been confirmed in an unbiased Harvard University study: an institution that is certainly no bastion of Right wing ideology or bias. Harvard’s Kennedy School Shorenstein Center’s study of the negative versus positive tone of reportage on the Trump administration shows overwhelming negative bias at CNN, NBC and CBS and major daily newspapers.   The range of negative mainstream press coverage from those organs was 93% at CNN and NBC, ranging down to 83% at the Washington Post. That is not only striking in its own right. It also speaks of why many Americans with politically centrist and especially conservative tendencies have tuned out the mainstream press.

What folks on the Left will detest as much as unmasking of the lack of balance in favorite sources is the degree to which Fox News Channel (FNC) is indeed “fair and balanced.”  As a longtime viewer of FNC along with CNN and CNBC, it is apparent FNC is a bit more favorable to the President and generally to conservatives. The ‘balance’ comes in with FNC also allowing quite a few more well-articulated opposing views, while CNN has only just begun to do so after Hillary Clinton’s loss back in November. CNN also tends to bring on less esteemed conservative guests, making it easier to dismiss their positions.

All of that said, the real point reverts back to the ‘hysterical headlines’ and the degree to which many of them are based on less than solid sources. Even if Trump is a master of the ‘own goal’ in erratic tweets and comments, it must be allowed the mainstream press and the Democratic Party’s Left wing cohorts have been ramping up ‘hair-on-fire’ hysteria on flimsy or misguided grounds (more below.) And there is now a blessed hiatus due to President Trump’s first major foreign soirée. The need for a more tightly scripted message with no needless self-inflicted wounds brings with it a bit of calm… for now.

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as Wednesday morning’s update (lower section) of last Tuesday morning’s The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, Arabia, classified, Clinton, Comey, comments, Congress, Cooper, Counsel, debt, Democrat, Director, dismiss, DoJ, ECB, economic, election, employment, EU, Europe, FBI, Greece, hacking, healthcare, IMF, Israel, Justice, leak, Left, macro, media, Mueller, Oliver, peace, prosecutor, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Rosenstein, Russia, Saudi, stimulus, tax, terrorism, Troika, Trump

2017/05/18 Commentary: ‘Risk-Off’ Rally Redux

May 18, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/05/18 Commentary: ‘Risk-Off’ Rally Redux

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Thursday, May 18, 2017

‘Risk-Off’ Rally Redux

It is not like Wednesday’s US equities selloff (and US dollar weakness along with govvies strength) should have really been a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to the primary driver: The ‘Trump-On’ - ‘Trump-Off’ psychology based on the advanced pricing of the various asset classes in anticipation of implementation of the Trump administration reform and economic stimulus agenda. It was glaringly apparent in the initial failure of the House of Representatives American Health Care Act (AHCA), which was ultimately passed late week two weeks ago. (Was that really just ten trading days ago? Wow.) For more on why that was so important see our anticipatory Commentary: ‘Trump-On’ – ‘Trump-Off’ post from the morning of May 4th (prior to the critical House vote) on the broader critical nature of the AHCA passage. Of course, that was due to the key implications for issues like Trump’s overall leadership as well as having AHCA in place in order to proceed to the even more critical tax reform.

And after AHCA passage that Thursday, it was indeed ‘Trump-On’ once again on the anticipation that the broader Trump reform and infrastructure spending plan could indeed proceed in timely fashion. There was even some sense that the Trump administration finally looking like it could lead and accomplish some things on behalf of the American people might attract cooperation from centrist Democrats (who are a distinct minority these days.) Yet as noted in our recent emailed advice and the WEEKEND: It’s Official: US Politics Broken post, since the Comey Affair maintained its negative influence into last Thursday (substantially on the missteps of the President) it was feeling like ‘Trump-Off’.

That was reinforced by risk-off psychology that should have been more influential on the weekend WannaCry ransomware attack and the breaking story on whatever classified information President Trump shared last week with Russian officials. All of which should have seen the equities weaken early this week instead of rallying Monday into Tuesday, as noted in Tuesday morning’s Commentary: The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally post. So it was easier…

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as Wednesday morning’s update (lower section) of Tuesday morning’s The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, classified, Clinton, Comey, comments, Congress, Counsel, Democrat, Director, dismiss, DoJ, economic, election, employment, FBI, hacking, healthcare, Justice, leak, Left, macro, media, Mueller, prosecutor, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Rosenstein, Russia, stimulus, tax, Trump

2017/05/16 Commentary: The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally

May 16, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/05/16 Commentary: The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The ‘Risk-Off’ Rally

As we noted in Sunday’s WEEKEND: It’s Official: US Politics Broken post, it is more on style than substance that President Trump’s dismissal of FBI Director Comey fails very badly. Yet in spite of what were broadly accepted reasons for the dismissal (see last Wednesday’s Commentary: ‘Trump-On’, ‘Comey-Off’ post), the disquieting manner in which so many aspects of it were handled become the ‘substance’ in terms of the lower standing of the President even within his own party; and needless to say the not-so-loyal opposition from the Democratic Party. The extremely clever New Yorker magazine May 22nd edition cover is indicative of how many folks perceived the needless abuse on many levels that was directed by Trump against ex-Director Comey. While we presume almost everyone should be aware due to the very extensive global coverage, this is of course a satirical parody of what United Airlines did to get Dr. David Dao to involuntarily surrender his seat. While the New Yorker cover is more restrained than the brutal treatment Dr. Dao received at the hands of security guards who dragged him off that flight, there is a perception that the manner in which Comey was fired and subsequent Trump comments were also needlessly brutal. That lack of class in this instance from an individual who keeps telling everyone whatever his administration does will ultimately be ‘beautiful’ is disconcerting. And as noted over the weekend, it could significantly interfere with his enlightened legislative agenda if too many Republicans lose confidence in him.

Yet the US equities rallied Monday morning in spite of the Trump administration’s clear ability to ‘snatch defeat from the jaws of victory’. (Last week’s Comey Affair followed the previous success of House passage of the American Health Care Act.) Yet the equities strength seemed to be for specific technical reasons related to the weekend outbreak of the WannaCry computer virus rather than any return of confidence in the administration.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, AHCA, China, Comey, comments, Composite, Composite Leading Indicators, Congress, currencies, DAX, Democrat, Director, dismiss, DoJ, dollar, economic, election, Emerging, employment, equities, Euro, FBI, govvies, hack, hackers, hacking, healthcare, Indicators, investment, Justice, Leading, Left, macro, market, markets, McCabe, media, OECD, prosecutor, rally, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Rosenstein, Russia, Sessions, stimulus, tax, tech, Trump, WannaCry

2017/05/14 WEEKEND: It’s Official: US Politics Broken

May 14, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/05/14 WEEKEND: It’s Official: US Politics Broken

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

WEEKEND: Sunday, May 14, 2017

It’s Official: US Politics Broken

As reviewed in Wednesday’s Commentary: ‘Trump-On’, ‘Comey-Off’ post, there were indeed ample grounds for President Trump and others in his administration to dismiss former FBI Director James Comey. Yet the manner in which this was done once again highlighted the lack of political professionalism in the Trump White House. However, at the very same time it led to more knee jerk misreports by some anti-Trump media outlets. That in turn supports administration claims there is quite a bit of ‘fake news’ that is explicitly aimed at undermining the President. Both are disturbing and counterproductive. And regardless of which side of the political divide anyone might be on, it needs to be allowed the net effect is to entrench acrimonious partisan positions. Yet the President is especially culpable in most recent imbroglio.

What rational discussion or especially legislative compromise can be possible between the two sides in such a toxic environment? Our assessment is that the already marginal chance of any return to political compromise has now evaporated. Based on the likely entrenchment of the already Left-leaning mainstream Democratic Party, its leadership has now been given the ammunition to enforce a strict ‘no cooperation’ doctrine. Quite a few Democratic Representatives and Senators are up for reelection in 2018. And there was some hope that enlightened self-interest would leave them willing to cooperate with the Trump administration’s tax reform and especially infrastructure spending agenda.

Yet now that some Republicans are so offended by the style in which the Trump team (and we again attribute that substantially to the actions of the man at the top) has handled previous and especially the latest matters, it will be easier for Democratic Party leaders to enforce party discipline. And the reason that is important for the markets is the basis for the current valuations of the equities (and trends in other asset classes as well):

The ’Trump Trade’. Post-US election anticipatory equities strength has been predicated on the Trump administration’s successfully passing tax reform and infrastructure spending into law. If that is not going to happen, equities are quite overvalued. While this is not likely to foment a meltdown, it isn’t going to be good. And as of now, it’s all on style.

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, the Market Observations are much the same as the previous Friday morning’s update (lower section) of that Thursday’s ‘Trump-On’ - ‘Trump-Off’ post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, Clinton, Comey, comments, Congress, Democrat, Director, dismiss, DoJ, economic, election, email, employment, FBI, hacking, healthcare, Justice, Left, macro, McCabe, media, prosecutor, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Rosenstein, Russia, server, Sessions, stimulus, tax, Trump

2017/05/10 Commentary: ‘Trump-On’, ‘Comey-Off’

May 10, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/05/10 Commentary: ‘Trump-On’, ‘Comey-Off’

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Wednesday, May 10, 2017

‘Trump-On’, ‘Comey-Off’

First of all, we note it is still a ‘Trump-On’ market, because the dismissal of James Comey as Federal Bureau of Investigation Director will not remain a major market influence after the initial shock over the abrupt timing wears off. The overall return of a risk-on (i.e. ‘Trump-On’) US equities psychology in the wake of the US House passage of its version of healthcare reform last week will still be the more important psychological driver. That provides the administration and Republican Congress ability to move on to major tax reform and fiscal stimulus. Those two were always more critical issues for any ability to accelerate still somewhat weak US economic growth. In fact, given the US Senate indication it will begin to work on its own version of the House’s American Health Care Act (AHCA) rather than the fast track review and passage of the House legislation, the healthcare issue can now be sidelined for what may be many months while still asserting that it is on track.

One of the most important aspects of that will be the relatively timely (next several weeks or so?) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) ‘scoring’ of AHCA. That will provide the very important cost estimate and projected population coverage figures. There are only two certainties pending the actual release of that CBO scoring. The Democrats will slam the loss of coverage for anyone whose healthcare cost rises or access diminishes, and the Republicans will refute CBO federal government costs as being too high. On the latter the Republicans will have the CBO major underestimation of Obamacare costs to reinforce the idea that CBO healthcare estimates can indeed be off by many billions of dollars.

Yet the idea that there will be a working ‘number’ for the federal government healthcare liability that can be used in any tax reform plan will continue to be a positive. As regular readers know, we were very skeptical of the administration response to the initial AHCA failure that it could just move on to tax reform. That was due to the lack of that estimate for healthcare costs. With that now addressed and healthcare on hold in the Senate, the tax reform debate and development can proceed. And that should remain an overall positive.

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment and the Market Observations are much the same as Friday morning’s update in the lower section of Thursday’s ‘Trump-On’ - ‘Trump-Off’ post, there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, Clinton, Comey, comments, Congress, Democrat, Director, dismiss, DoJ, economic, election, email, employment, executive, executive order, FBI, hacking, healthcare, Justice, KNVX, Left, Lynch, macro, McCabe, media, Order, Phoenix, prosecutor, redux, reform, reporter, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Rosenstein, Russia, server, Sessions, Sign, Sky Harbor, stimulus, tax, Trump
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