2015/01/22 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, January 22, 2015 (early)
Concise Highlights
CENTRAL BANK-O-RAMA!! Yep, it feels a bit like a giant easing indoor mall right now. While the data remains mixed, the weakness of energy prices and the associated disinflationary tendencies have led to a feeling that MORE needs to be done on the monetary and interest rate accommodation front. And though we thoroughly expected this week to see major central bank influences, the surprises even in the wake of the Swiss National Bank ‘shocker’ of withdrawing multi-year support from under the euro last week keep on coming.
First thing Wednesday there was the Bank of Japan downgrading its inflation forecast. They noted this was strictly on energy price concerns that would ultimately assist their import dependent economy. But it was still a concern. Along come the Bank of England meeting minutes which tell us what? That the last two hawks have capitulated, and now agree with the majority that rates should be kept steady. And the Bank of Canada provides its own minor bit of ‘shock and awe’ with a surprise 25 basis point rate cut to a 0.75% base rate. Here again it was based on weakening energy prices, which is indeed more credible here due to the major energy production component of their economy.
And now we all await the ECB press conference at 07:30 CST after it predictably held the rate steady this morning. How many bonds and other securities will it be purchasing each month, and how much will be government bonds to which the northern tier countries led by Germany object? We shall see. Yet the market question is how much further will this assist equities ‘risk-on’ psychology and perversely (yet predictably) weigh on govvies?
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the key factors noted above along with the continued mixed nature of data out of Asia and Europe spilling over into the US of late as well. While Australian Confidence was better than expected, other Asian data was weaker on the way into only US Weekly Jobless Claims KC Fed Manufacturing today. The central bank influence dominates.
It moves on to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:10, with OTHER EQUITIES from 06:45, GOVVIES at 10:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:20. Due to it being not much changed from Tuesday, there is only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:10 followed by EUROPE at 18:45, ASIA at 19:20 and CROSS RATE TENDENCIES at 20:00 prior to returning to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 20:30 for a final look and additional perspective.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/01/23 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/01/23 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, January 23, 2015 (early)
CENTRAL BANK-O-RAMA Lives!! The giant easing indoor mall we noted was already in place prior to the ECB press conference has a whole new vendor joining the already extensive shops offering major accommodations products: The ECB Free Money Mega-Store. That’s right. Draghi & Co. (in spite of a few dissenting major board members) have moved bigtime into the liquidity creation business. And with €60 billion per month government bond and other securities purchases through next September, its product is head and shoulders above the previously rumored more limited increments for a shorter period of time.
There seems to be some issue over whether there is even that volume of securities available for purchase. But why quibble about small stuff? The very idea the ECB will be pursuing that extensive a QE program is inspiring the equities, and interestingly enough putting a bid into the govvies as well. The obvious weakness is naturally in the euro. Yet along with the weakness in the other currencies against the US dollar, that is by design, and viewed as a constructive development in the inflation-needy Euro-zone.
And as far as the economic data, who cares? In the wake of these significantly forward looking central bank influences the ‘rearview mirror’ data is typically less important.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the key factors noted above along with the continued mixed data out of Asia and Europe on global Advance PMI’s. Yet the prominence of the ‘macro’ factors leaves the data a bit less important, even with US Existing Homes Sales and Leading Indicators pending today.
It moves on to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 05:50, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:40, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:40 and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS due to their quiet bid at 16:10. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:45, jumping over to EUROPE at 19:00 and ASIA at 22:20, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:30 and a return to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:30 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss some broader factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...