2015/01/29 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, January 29, 2015 (early)
Concise Highlights
The Agony and the Ecstasy …and Agony again!! After Tuesday morning’s very weak US dollar-hit Procter & Gamble earnings and even more so the Caterpillar miss due to weak oil and metals (with a major guidance downgrade along with it) the US equities put in an interesting recovery. As we noted yesterday morning that was on anticipation of the likely White Knight riding to the rescue of the ‘Market in Distress’ in the form of Apple’s Tim Cook. And he duly delivered on Tuesday afternoon, which left Wednesday's consideration of whether Queen Janet of Fedlandia was going to also deliver the still accommodative language that the market expected in the FOMC meeting statement. And yet, as we noted early Wednesday morning, the more important question will be what happens after that? Well, it wasn't good.
And this is consistent with last week's dual (Monday and Saturday) "It's the Lack of Reforms, Stupid!” Commentary posts on the political class’ dysfunctional lack of constructive efforts during the time the central banks have bought them with all of the major monetary policy accommodation. As one of the analysis sources we cite in part two of those posts noted, this is a “race against time." While his specific reference was for Mr. Abe’s reform agenda in Japan, it was more specifically about political class resistance forms. And that is a problem for central banks everywhere.
Unless something changes soon expect more of the same sort of equity markets surprises which occurred on Wednesday. While there are economic recoveries in some areas (notably the US) and weakness in other regions, the overall lack of reforms is leaving businesses with a lack of incentives to invest and hire. That is now exacerbated by the weakness of commodities like oil and metals; note how that plays into Caterpillar’s earnings miss and downgrade of its forward guidance. The problem is that the political positions are entrenched to a degree which does not offer much hope things will be improving. Given continued discord in the US, is there any chance the Administration and the Republicans are going to find enough common ground to implement reforms?
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the key factors noted above along with the continued mixed nature of data out of Asia and Europe. And there is very little in the US today in front of the typical end of month global economic data crunch tomorrow. Most importantly, that will include the first look at US Q4 GDP which is already impugned from the previous 3.0% expectations in the wake of those extremely weak December Durable Goods numbers including downgrades to November.
It moves on to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 01:50 and intermediate term at 05:00, with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES at 10:00 and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 11:40. Due to it being not much changed from Tuesday, there is only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 12:00 followed by AUD/USD prior to returning to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 13:00 for a final look and additional perspective.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/01/30 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/01/30 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, January 30, 2015 (early)
The Agony and the Ecstasy …let’s do it again!! After Tuesday morning’s very weak US dollar-hit Procter & Gamble earnings and even more so the Caterpillar miss due to weak oil and metals (with a major guidance downgrade along with it) the US equities put in an interesting recovery only to be decimated on Wednesday. The interesting part of that is it was even after great Apple earnings Tuesday afternoon into a still very accommodative FOMC on Wednesday at 13:00 CST. So what when wrong, and then right all over again late Wednesday into Thursday?
Well, on a technical level the US equities in the form of the March S&P 500 future managed to hold the key 1,985-78 area once again Thursday morning. As we have noted repeatedly, that is not just the key technical are (which it most certainly is), but also a key central bank support psychological area. This has been the case ever since that pre-existing technical area was where it settled in ahead of the December FOMC decision and press conference.
So even though the DAX remains strong on weak European inflation data due to the ECB’s current ‘bad news is good news’ influence, the US might be more critical to the overall trend decision. That is of course due to the far more massive and extended QE program (Mr. Bernanke’s last round was actually dubbed QE-Infinity by many financial observers). If after all that the US economy looks like it will still weaken without it, that would be a bad sign for all of the other QE efforts. This is reinforced by relatively lackluster performance of the Japanese economy to date under Abenomics. Of course, he and the BoJ and Mario Draghi and the Fed are all still burdened by political class resistance to reforms, as we explored at length in last week's dual (Monday and Saturday) "It's the Lack of Reforms, Stupid!” Commentary posts. If you’ve not done so already, we suggest a read.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the key factors noted above along with the continued mixed nature of data out of Asia and Europe. And while there was very little out of the US yesterday in front of the typical end of month global economic data crunch today, we now await the first look at US Q4 GDP which is already impugned from the previous 3.0% expectations in the wake of those extremely weak December Durable Goods numbers including downgrades to November.
It moves on to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 01:30 and intermediate term at 04:25, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:40, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 09:30 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 14:40. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:15, jumping over to EUROPE at 18:30 and ASIA at 21:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 22:15 and a return to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:40 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...