2015/02/09 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, February 9, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

The Agony and the Ecstasy? More Agony for now. While these fluctuations of sentiment based on macro geopolitical factors are part of the market psychology for many years, they seem to reaching a divergent crescendo now. While concerns in Europe and Asia and even some of the fundamental influences in the US had restrained the US equities, that all seemed to reverse after the top of the month March S&P 500 future 1,985-78 test held. That saw it rally above its 2,036-40 resistance in spite of the looming problems with the Greek Debt Dilemma in Europe.

Yet the lack of progress on that situation (along with the Russia-Ukraine impasse as a further irritant) led to the announcement from new Greek PM Alexis Tsipras on Friday that he was content to skip the next round of Troika bailout funding if there was no adjustment to Greece’s overall debt repayments. That included a rollback of some major features of previous austerity, which even critics of Greece have had to admit was not working.

Along with the failure of Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande to convince Mr. Putin to abandon aggressive meddling in Ukraine, and the worsening of the US dock workers slowdown, it was enough to hit equities. Of note, the sharp weakening of equities was not enough to bolster the US fixed income after the knock from a strong US Employment report Friday morning. That data was the Ecstasy prior to the ensuing Agony, which has been compounded by roundly weak global trade data this morning (especially China.) That said, it is interesting the March S&P 500 future has held 2,040-36 so far.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with the lack of much US data today. And things are going to heat up later this week on critical global data and the European contention heightening into preliminary meetings later this week prior to the G20 next Monday and Tuesday.

It moves on to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:30, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:20, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:35 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:45 and ASIA at 25:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:45 and a return to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:20 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to discussion of the impact of global factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2015/02/06 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

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The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, February 6, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

The Agony and the Ecstasy seems to be ending on a bit of an ecstatic note for equities… pending the data and market response to the US Employment report release this morning. And the US equities firmness after lagging others recently leaves the entire return to a ‘risk-on’ psychology instituted by the better than expected European Commission quarterly economic projections Thursday morning on the cusp. Of course, that is due in large measure to the contentious nature of the ECB/EU/German response to Greek demands their debt restructuring take a more realistic form than the extensive austerity that even some in the fiscal conservative camp need to allow has not been working. Yet, sort of any further upset than the Greek and German Finance Minister agreeing to disagree Thursday, much rests with the Employment today.    

And the fine points of that are worth reviewing immediately instead of in the extended market discussion. The March S&P 500 future has already breached important interim resistance in the 2,036-40 range. That was not only an important previous interim congestion, but also the area it gapped below on last week Tuesday’s stale corporate earnings and very weak US Durable Goods Orders report. Back above it seems to restore a bit of confidence. Gapping up yesterday morning to leave a session low at the 2,044 Tolerance of that resistance yesterday after the late Wednesday drop was telling. But how to view the next key resistance is even more critical, and we cover that below.  

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with the strength of Wednesday’s Euro-zone Retail Sales and Thursday morning’s German Factory Orders. After this morning’s weakness in both German Industrial Production and the UK Trade Balance today’s US Employment (and less so its Canadian counterpart) loom large, with only US Consumer Credit after that.

It moves on to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:15 and intermediate term at 06:15, with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 08:15, GOVVIES and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 09:20. Due to it being not much changed from Thursday, there is also only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 10:00 followed by EUROPE at 10:30, ASIA at 11:10 and CROSS RATE TENDENCIES at 12:00 prior to returning to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 12:15 for a final look and additional perspective.  

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2015/02/05 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, February 5, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

The Agony and the Ecstasy …again and again!! This is getting to be a business as usual, if indeed it can be considered ‘normal’. Yet it must be allowed that during the highly confrontational phases of the Euro-zone debt restructuring developments of the past five years sharp turns in sentiment have indeed been the norm. After the upbeat, ‘risk-on’ equities response to Monday afternoon’s new Greek government acquiescence in not asking for headline write-offs of its debt, we were anticipating a possible turn for the worse sometime later this week. That was the point of Wednesday morning’s note that the Greek situation would leave markets in flux.

Yet the Agony and Ecstasy whipsaw on the current influences is striking. Yesterday’s ECB rejection of the use of Greek bonds as collateral seemed quite a blow, yet has been almost wholly offset by this morning’s much improved European Commission Euro-zone 2015-2016 growth forecast. Based on cheaper oil (a pure overhead for Europe) and export advantage from a cheaper euro it has projected a 0.2% improvement from last quarter’s significantly downgraded figures. Of course, that creates a virtuous circle of better expectations for government deficits (even if still above the EU ceiling in many cases.)    

And with mixed data elsewhere on everything from Wednesday’s global Services PMI’s to various Retail Sales and confidence indicators, the fate of quite a few asset classes’ trend might clarify based on the risk-on/risk-off psychology decision. And for now that would seem to be most highly focused in whether the March S&P 500 future can push up more decisively above its 2,036-40 resistance after holding the major 1,985-78 support early Monday morning. That is because the lagging nature of the US equities at present have been reflecting a possible ‘risk-off’ potential in the wake of last week Tuesday’s troubling corporate earnings and very weak Durable Goods Orders. Those were key factors in a sharp gap lower below 2.036-40. If the US equities are shaking off that drag, it is a sign that the positive forces are taking hold once again… at least in the near term.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with the strength of Wednesday’s Euro-zone Retail Sales and This morning’s German Factory Orders. That leaves today’s US data less trend decisive.

It moves on to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:45, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:20, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 13:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 23:10 and ASIA at 26:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:30 and a return to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:30 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...