2015/04/09 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, April 9, 2015 (early)
Global View: All Markets
While there were significant price shifts out of the abbreviated Friday US sessions into Monday, much of it has cooled down in the past couple of sessions. That is in spite of release of the still dovish FOMC meeting minutes on the back of more problematic (and in some ways overtly weak) US economic and interest rate outlook. And even the ‘Grexit’ (Greece defaulting and ultimately exiting the Euro-zone) threat has been defused with this morning’s on schedule €450 million loan repayment to the IMF. While we remain skeptical of US equities, the situation seems to be devolving into another one of those stagnant phases. The pattern of weak global data still inspiring the bid in Asian and European equities on the back of BoJ and ECB aggressive QE offsetting any of the weaker instincts of the US equities seems to be back for now.
There is also still that view that the early estimate for the March US Employment situation as a fluke which will be heavily revised to the upside in subsequent releases. The other view is the report is real (as recently atypical downward revisions to previous month’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures would suggest), and the strength of the equities is based on more central bank accommodation psychology. While the problem with the latter view is that neither the rest of recent data nor the various asset classes price activity necessarily support the idea that things are indeed much weaker in the US. That said, yesterday’s FOMC minutes along with a return to serial weak European data have bolstered govvies while assisting the US dollar as well. All thoroughly predictable short term responses.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted the influence of the offshore data might remain fairly prominent due to a lack of significant US economic releases later Thursday into Friday, even if a couple of rounds of Fed-speak are coming Friday morning into lunchtime.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 01:40 and intermediate term view at 04:10, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:30 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 16:10. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:00 and ASIA at 24:50, followed by the CROSS RATES at 27:45 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 30:20. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/04/10 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2015/04/10 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, April 10, 2015 (early)
As noted yesterday, release of still dovish FOMC meeting minutes on the back of more problematic (and in some ways overtly weak) US economic and interest rate outlook seems to be supportive for the equities in a ‘bad news is good news’ environment. And that is even assisting the US equities on the strength of the other equities benefitting from aggressive QE programs from the ECB and BoJ. This is of course a real role reversal after the US strength assisted the others last year.
Even the ‘Grexit’ (Greece defaulting and ultimately exiting the Euro-zone) threat has been defused with Thursday’s €450 million IMF loan repayment. While we remain skeptical of US equities, the situation seems to be devolving into another stagnant phase where they can be influenced by the others. The pattern of weak global data still inspiring the bid in Asian and European equities on the back of BoJ and ECB aggressive QE offsetting any of the weaker instincts of the US equities seems to be dominant for now.
The other inconsistent aspect of the US activity for now is the weakness of the govvies, especially as the European sisters hold up so well. While the US Dollar Index pushing back up can easily be explained by the weakness of European economic data, the US data also being soft should not really be weighing on US fixed income in spite of a QE-inspired bid in the equities. That said, June T-note future only dropped into the 129-00/128-24 support yesterday under the pressure from firm equities and a 30-year T-bond auction while European govvies held up much better. And even the June S&P 500 future push above 2,075-78 only made it back up to other resistance in the 2,088-90 range. How that all proceeds into next week’s more extensive and critical US data will be very interesting.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted the influence of the very weak Euro-zone and UK data of late along with still weak US Import Prices. That said, Canadian Housing Starts and Employment figures were quite strong, which is inconsistent with the US economic weakness of late and especially the weakness of the energy sector.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:00, and OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, and only the T-NOTE at 10:00 with mention of other GOVVIES at 11:50 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 12:20. FOREIGN EXCHANGE only sees the US DOLLAR INDEX at 12:30 and EUR/USD at 14:30 with other currencies only mentioned from 17:10 and CROSS RATES at 18:10 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 18:20 for a final look.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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