2015/04/16 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, April 16, 2015 (early)
Global View: All Markets
It’s not like we were the only ones focused on the continued Greek Debt Dilemma and Grexit (Greece defaulting and ultimately exiting the Euro-zone) potential. Yet the equity markets (and even govvies to some degree) had ignored the risks which still might have fomented the return of more prominent ‘risk off’ mentality in the near term. While that was temporarily defused after Greece cobbled together its €450 million repayment to the IMF last Thursday, we pointedly noted that was likely only the beginning. Greece was clearly only capable of making that payment by emptying the ‘piggy bank’ (drawing on pension reserves and other unsustainable sources of funds.)
This does not bode well for its ability to make other payments in the relatively near term future, especially now that the IMF has rebuffed its latest request for an ad hoc near term deferral of scheduled payments. That is what is bothering the equities, and especially the DAX and even the S&P 500 today. And this is in spite of the ECB’s massive QE program, which Signore Draghi defended very well on several fronts yesterday. He even noted the ECB commitment to providing extended support to Greece as long as the government is constructively pursuing its reforms to the satisfaction of the EU and IMF negotiators.
The other key points addressed at the press conference included the importance of further structural reforms in Europe that are ultimately necessary to make the ECB QE program meaningful. You know our sentiments on the importance of that, and hearing the continued pointed direction from the ECB head is encouraging. In fact, there was very in-depth discussion of that during the Q&A that we share below.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted still serial weak data out of Asia, Europe and the US in spite of select bright spots. The latest signs were Wednesday’s weak US Industrial Production and Empire Manufacturing Index. And while Australian Employment improved this morning, US Weekly Jobless Claims and Housing Starts and Permits were negative.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:00 and intermediate term view at 04:25, OTHER EQUITIES from 05:50, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 09:20 (with a focus on the BUND at 11:40) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 14:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:45, jumping over to EUROPE at 19:00 and ASIA at 23:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 25:30 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 29:50. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/04/17 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2015/04/17 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, April 17, 2015 (early)
As noted yesterday, it’s not like we were the only ones focused on continued Greek Debt Dilemma and Grexit (Greece defaulting and ultimately exiting the Euro-zone) potentials. Yet the equity markets (and even govvies to some degree) had ignored the risks which still might have fomented the return of more prominent ‘risk off’ mentality in the near term. So while Mario Draghi was very supportive in this comments on the ECB view Wednesday, that doesn’t offset the fact that Greece’s ability to cobble together its €450 million repayment to IMF last Thursday was only the beginning.
Greece was clearly only capable of making that payment by emptying the ‘piggy bank’ (drawing on pension reserves and other unsustainable sources of funds.) We noted that and the IMF and German rejection of its latest request for an ad hoc near term deferral of scheduled payments. Along with some trading restrictions suggested by Chinese authorities this morning, that is weighing on equities once again this morning.
There is also the issue we have been reviewing since last year and ECB President Draghi has also noted far more pointedly of late: the lack of structural reform putting the benefits of all the massive (Fed previous and now ECB and BoJ) central bank QE at risk of not really providing sustained economic growth. For any of you who have not already seen it, yesterday’s post included both a link to the ECB press conference (including transcripts of both the Opening Statement and the Q&A) and select excerpts relating to this key topic. We suggest a read for Signore Draghi’s excellent overview of significant related issues.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted the influence of on balance weak economic data of the past couple of weeks in spite of a few high spots. Those include consistently weak Chinese data and continued devolution of US data in important areas like Retail Sales and Housing Starts to weaker levels as we await Michigan Sentiment and Leading Indicators.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:00, and OTHER EQUITIES from 06:15, and GOVVIES at 11:00 with only mention SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:30. There is also only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:40, EUROPE at 18:00, ASIA at 19:00 and CROSS RATES at 20:00 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 20:30 for a final look.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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