2015/04/23 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, April 23, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

A One-Two Punch hit the govvies on Wednesday. While it had a mixed impact on equities (US strong while Europe weakened), the Bank of England MPC meeting minutes release weighed on govvies early. That was due to what we see as more of an inference taken than direct expression of any hawkish view. The key line was “the path of bank rate expected by financial markets was now exceptionally flat.” It is true that expectations on that are very sanguine. Yet for the markets to take that line and conflate it into any form of a warning that the BoE intends to actually raise rates sooner than expected seems a bit of over-anticipation. And the short money reflected this.

But then the govvies (as opposed to the short money) were hit by the second ‘punch’: Quite a bit better than expected US Existing Home Sales data. At 5.19 million versus the 5.03 million expected sales, this was a sign of stronger activity which fit in with the earlier rate fears; and more so in the US due to existing concerns over the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike, especially considering housing is such a key US economic activity component.

However, even in light of that strength and inference from the BoE statement, the govvies failure through next supports at elevated levels has only led to a test of next lower key support levels (more below.) And a curious thing is happening on the way to all that confidence rates are too low and the central banks are behind the curve… all the other previous data and the significant economic indications this morning (like the global Advance PMI’s) remain quite weak. With further extensive US data today and important economic releases tomorrow, we are about to see what the govvies are really made of.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above. It also notes that the additional US economic releases today include the Advance Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales (a key complement to yesterday’s Existing Home Sales data) and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index.

It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:40 (with a focus on the BUND at 15:50) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:50. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:15, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:15 and ASIA at 25:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 27:25 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 30:20. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2015/04/21 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

It’s not like we were the only ones focused on the continued Greek Debt Dilemma and Grexit (Greece defaulting and ultimately exiting the Euro-zone) potential. Yet the equity markets (and even govvies to some degree) had ignored the risks which still might have fomented the return of more prominent ‘risk off’ mentality in the near term. That has been reversed since last Friday due to the major Peoples Bank of China weekend Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut of a full percent to 18.50%. With all of the weak Chinese economic data (continuing into this morning), possibly just the extent but not the timing was not all that much of a surprise. As noted yesterday, it also highlights the cross currents PBOC is faced with. The struggling property sector desperately needs all the help it can get. On the other hand, it is of note that new limits on speculative trading were introduced late last week to offset extreme equities strength.

However, the question remains over whether all of this central bank accommodation and overt Quantitative Easing by ECB and BoJ can ultimately rejuvenate currently sustained weak growth? We explored that at length last Thursday in the wake of what Signore Draghi had to say about the even more critical need for structural reform to ensure all that QE brings about the desired economic improvement. See the early part of that Global View post for extensive excerpts and an actual link to the ECB press conference video.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted still serial weak data for the past couple of weeks spilling over into Asia and Europe early this week with not much from the US. That includes very weak Japanese and Chinese data this morning as well as German ZEW.

It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:15 (with a focus on the BUND at 14:00) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 16:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:45, jumping over to EUROPE at 23:00 and ASIA at 27:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 30:45 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 35:00. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the discussion of extended central bank influences on market tendencies, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...