2015/06/03 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, June 3, 2015 (early)
Global View: All Markets
This is our pre-ECB press conference view, and on this cycle that means quite a lot. As the ECB does not have a set early month meeting since the top of this year, the meeting being today has additional importance in light of recent events. In the first instance, all of the global PMI’s except US and Canadian Services have been released. And except for the UK they have been positive. And as it happened, the important Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) semi-annual Global Economic Outlook was also presented this morning by Chief Economist Catherine Mann. It was not very surprising that it revised its 2015 projections lower. That was not just on the weak Q1 performance that was going to be a drag on economic growth for the year. It also related to other factors which we have been highlighting of late. And that especially has to do with a lack of investment reducing future potential growth along with weakening productivity. Sounds like the lack of reforms many observers as well as us have been bemoaning is beginning to have an effect.
And speaking of those focused on the lack of reform, it will be very interesting to hear what ECB President Draghi has to say on that at today’s ECB press conference. Yet in the short term his view on another topic might be equally as important, if not more so: will Tuesday’s stronger than expected Euro-zone inflation cause the ECB to weaken or eliminate their aggressive Quantitative Easing program sooner than expected? Frankly, we doubt that will be the case, as they are not going to determine the fate of such a major program based on a single month’s data. And if there is a reaffirmation of the program we suspect the German Bund can begin to recover a sizable portion of Tuesday’s sharp drop.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which data that seemed to slip back into weakness last week has strengthened this week outside of the UK. It also notes that even after the ECB press conference today we will see more US and Canadian data like the Services PMI’s, and the Fed Beige Book early this afternoon.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 04:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:20, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 09:45 (with a focus on the BUND at 13:30) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 15:55. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 19:00 and ASIA at 22:20, followed by the CROSS RATES at 24:40 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 27:30. We suggest using the timeline cursor .
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/06/05 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2015/06/05 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, June 5, 2015 (early)
We are going to cut to the chase this morning on the importance of the various asset classes’ responses to the US Employment report’s important aspects. Those are the obvious Nonfarm Payrolls figures as well as the Hourly Earnings. While the former is always the most prominent, the disappointment with the latter has been a drag on the US employment situation picture for over a year now, and leaves an impression that all the job gains are less important than the possible weak nature of the individual earnings. This is behind the weak psychology around US Retail Sales as well, which historically and at present is a driver for perceptions of the global economic health.
Yet, what does this mean to the highly active price activity we have already seen this week, and especially govvies along with more critical equities activity of late? Regarding the latter, the serial sharply weak early day activity followed by recoveries seems to have conditioned the bulls to buy early session weakness. That worked fine through last week’s June S&P 500 future failure back below 2,119 into the 2,100 area. In fact, a 2,096 trading Tolerance below that was establish last Tuesday, and that had been held ever since… until yesterday. In spite of the late session rebound back above it, the overnight trade has seen it slip to that area and somewhat below. How it behaves from there after the US Employment report will be very important not just to the US, but also to the weaker equities in Europe. While there is some lower support into the 2,090-88 area, if it is trading there at a new low on Friday, that will be a bit problematic. For those already following the September contract, it is trading at a classical seven dollar discount to the noted levels.
As it is leading the other govvies, the other key factor is September Bund future activity around the 150.00 area. While the June contract expiration is not until Monday (typical for a month where Monday is the 1st), the 150.00-149.70 area is very prominent lead contract support at the bottom of what has already been a major selloff. This makes yesterday’s September contract 149.91 UP Closing Price Reversal a critical near term indication reinforcing the importance of the 150.00-149.70 area. That is also a key on the weekly oscillator projections, with next supports not until 148.50, 147.70 and 147.20 (the old April 2013 all-time high.) As a rote influence in the wake of Signore Draghi’s indications, we also suggest keeping an eye on the NYMEX July Crude Oil future 58.00 area noted previous.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which data that seemed to slip back into weakness last week has strengthened this week outside of the UK. It also notes the weaker indications expressed by the OECD and IMF that counter the ECB view, and the strength of this morning’s German Factory Orders.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:45 and intermediate term view at 07:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 10:15, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 15:30 (with a focus on the BUND at 21:40) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 24:50. Only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE as well begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 26:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 26:30 and ASIA at 27:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:45 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 29:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...