2016/01/27 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, January 27, 2016 (early)
Global View: All Markets
All still remains much the same as our previous notes this week based the Market Observations update after Friday’s US Close. As noted last Thursday morning, Super Mario (Draghi) has confirmed that inflation is weak for reasons beyond the sheer drop in Crude Oil prices (which he still allowed was enough in itself to affect near term inflation readings.) This is important, as ECB worries about the dreaded ‘second round effects’ seem to be pushing it toward more extensive Quantitative Easing (QE.) All of the bullish anticipation last Wednesday afternoon was confirmed at the ECB press conference Thursday morning. That caused the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE to sustain strength well above the key 1,860-65 area.
While the markets might get ‘parked’ in front of the FOMC Statement (and it’s Statement ONLY this time) at 13:00 CST, MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE remains critical on its reaction to that influence. It just might be the case that in spite of any reference to being ‘sensitive to conditions’ (or some such) in the FOMC Statement, any sustained indication the Fed still suffers from it ‘normalcy bias’ (see the December 16th post) will very possibly temporarily pressure the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE. The operative word there is temporary, as the strong 1,865-60 support will likely hold on the increasingly dovish external influences.
That is due to it being a Negated weekly up channel DOWN Break, and also a short term down channel 1,959 UP Break from last Thursday morning’s positive ECB influence as well as the low end of Friday’s gap higher from Thursday’s 1,861 Close. While that may seem a long way down to specify support, we know two things right now. In spite of near term stabilization, the markets remain very volatile in general and recent trading has amply demonstrated there is not much between the 1,900 area and 1,865-60 now.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of aspects noted above, and the degree to which data remained very weak into the start of this week. That was especially so for German IFO, UK CBI Reported Sates, the US Dallas Fed Index, and even UK Housing that had previously been a source of strength and even the US Advance Services PMI. We now await the next missive from the FOMC.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:30, with OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES beginning at 10:30 (with the BUND FUTURE at 12:45) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 14:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:45, EUROPE at 18:30 and ASIA at 21:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 23:45 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 26:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2016/01/22 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2016/01/22 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, January 22, 2016 (early)
After a rather active week in the equities with further critical trend potentials looming into today’s weekly Close, it seemed important to wait until this morning to see the extended impact of ECB President Draghi’s return to a much more accommodative QE stance. While the ECB did not announce any change to the program on Thursday, the extended focus on the impact of the further major energy and commodity price slide was telling. As we noted in Thursday afternoon’s Draghi accommodatively downbeat Commentary post, he was rightfully concerned about pressure on other aspects of the economy beyond the impact of sheer lower energy prices on inflation readings: the dreaded ‘second round effects’.
While many of the more parsimonious members of the ECB Governing Council are not inclined to expand the Quantitative Easing (QE) program, there is an assumption that (much like the Fed Chair) President Draghi can prevail on other members to go along if circumstances warrant. With equities on the mend (no doubt due to Draghi’s assistance on Thursday), it will not be necessary to actually do anything now. As even he noted, there will not likely be any changes until the Council sees updated economic and financial projections in March. Yet the psychological shift was telling. That includes the weakening of the govvies on the equities rebound, at least outside of the Bund. The latter will not necessarily weaken on the equities recovery as long as the reason is European weakness.
Of course, the economic weakness extends well beyond Europe. The overall economic picture remains weak with only some occasional exceptions in the data. As an example, the UK Employment figures were strong again on Wednesday. Yet that is against a backdrop of overall UK data that has been very disappointing. And the FTSE stock index as well as the currency reflects that in the same way as struggling commodity currencies.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of aspects noted above, and the degree to which data generally remained weak into the start of 2016. That was especially so for US housing, which had been a previous source of strength, and inflation data hit by the weakness of commodities and energy.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 02:45 and intermediate term view at 05:15 with the long term view of the monthly chart at 07:15, OTHER EQUITIES from 09:45, GOVVIES beginning at 13:00 (with the BUND FUTURE at 15:30) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 17:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:15, EUROPE at 22:45 and ASIA at 26:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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