Rohr International's Blog ...evolved capital markets insights

Informed observations on international capital markets & global politico-economics ...with extended ideas on major market trend implications

  • Required Reading Risk Disclaimer
  • About Rohr
  • Subscription Echelons & Fees
  • Tours
  • Contact Us
  • Required Reading Risk Disclaimer
  • About Rohr
  • Subscription Echelons & Fees
  • Tours
  • Contact Us

2017/02/08 Commentary: The Ultimate Kool-Aid?

February 8, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/02/08 Commentary: The Ultimate Kool-Aid?

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Wednesday, February 8, 2017

The Ultimate Kool-Aid?

JONESTOWNdailynewsFRONTpage-170208The recent antics of the Senate Democrats add to the previous anti-Trump actions that seemed rather pointless and might be more than a bit self-destructive. This includes the more than 60 Democratic House Representatives who boycotted Donald Trump’s Inauguration as the 45th President on January 20th. Yet that was a one-time gesture which would be forgotten across time. Yet as we noted immediately in our Commentary: ECB & Kool-Aid II post on January 20th, it was not the act of moral courage that the Dems would have liked many to believe. Among all of the other reasons it was a futile act, we also noted it was a demonstration of ‘cowardice’, as we named the opening section of our discussion of the boycott by House Democrats.

To wit, “It is very interesting that just about all of the Democratic legislators who have chosen to boycott the Trump inauguration are from ‘safe’ districts, and none are from districts that are at risk of going Republican in the 2018 bi-election. In other words, for the most part only those with little or no political risk have decided to drink the ‘boycott the inauguration’ Kool-Aid.” More on the next phase below, but first a more upbeat indication.

This morning saw the latest Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) monthly Composite Leading Indicators (CLI, in our mildly marked-up version.)  As noted in last month’s release, the OECD is now more realistically taking an upbeat view on most of the global economy. We sometimes criticize the OECD for expressing a positive view in their headline assessment when the actual indications are problematic or weak. However, this month’s headline “…growth gaining momentum in several advanced economies” seems a bit too downbeat for the indications.

Once again, this a net 4-month forward view (hence ‘leading’) as the 6-month projections are delayed by two months to ensure the accuracy of the data. Even so, it reinforces all of the upbeat expectations under the Trump administration’s lower regulation and tax plans. If outside of Italy and India the entire world is in a mutually reinforcing growth cycle, any further stimulation from Trump’s plans should be good for US and global equities.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, analysis, bond, boycott, Carter, CLI, Clinton, comments, committee, Composite Leading Indicators, Confirmation, confluence, currency, debate, Democrats, DeVos, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, fixed income, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, interest, interest rate, Jonestown, Kool-Aid, Left, macro, macro-technical, market, markets, McCarthy, nominee, Obama, OECD, redux, reform, Republicans, risk-off, risk-on, S&P, S&P 500, self-defeating, Senate, structural, structural reform, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Trump, US dollar

2017/02/02 Quick Take: Fed and Flynn

February 2, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/02/02 Quick Take: Fed and Flynn

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Quick Take: Thursday, February 2, 2017

Fed and Flynn

FEDbldgDC-141001The Federal Open Market Committee statement (our mildly marked-up version) was as close to a ‘carbon copy’ statement as possible while still offering some indication they are aware of the key psychological changes under Trump administration policy shifts. Yet the changes are more than just a few subtle adjustments, and that includes the composition of the voting members beginning with this first meeting of 2017 for the balance of the year. While they shifted some of the inflation anticipation language across the first couple of paragraphs, that remained remarkably the same. The single more aggressive stance there was taking the previous statements’ assessment that inflation ‘is expected’ to rise to 2 percent with the assertion that it ‘will’ rise to 2 percent. While that might have given some of the govvies bulls pause, they were comforted by the surprise for the public interest rate hawks that…

“The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction…”

This was one area where the ‘bond vigilantes’ feel it is appropriate for the Fed to allow just a little bit of tightening through modest reduction of its Brobdingnagian balance sheet in the face of almost assured fiscal stimulus to come. Yet maybe even that was more than should have been anticipated at the first meeting of the more dovish 2017 roster of FOMC voting members. As we have noted since mid-October, even some previous doves among the 2016 voting members had become more hawkish by late 2016. They have been replaced by folks who are, on balance, quite a bit more dovish. (See the bottom of page 2 of our marked-up version for the details.)

Yet even in the ‘steady as she goes’ statement citing that “…business fixed investment has remained soft…” (predictably as companies wait to see what really transpires on taxation and regulation), it notes, “Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late.” Maybe that explains why a still accommodative statement from the Fed left equities sagging on concerns over things remaining kind of soft for now. Maybe.

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, ballistic, bond, committee, Confirmation, currency, Democrats, exports, Flynn, FOMC, immigration, interest, interest rate, Iran, Kool-Aid, missile, Mnuchin, nominee, Obama, redux, reform, Republicans, risk-off, risk-on, Russia, S&P, Senate, structural, structural reform, Tillerson, Trade, Treasury, Trump

2017/02/01 Commentary: Kool-Aid Derails ‘Trump Bump’?

February 1, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/02/01 Commentary: Kool-Aid Derails ‘Trump Bump’?

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Kool-Aid Derails ‘Trump Bump’?

KOOLAIDobamaDEMdrinking-170114The US equities that we had designated a “Roadrunner” market (i.e. near-term runaway) just last Thursday look like they have hit the wall for now instead of Wile E. Coyote (see our previous post if that metaphor is lost on you.) Last week’s reacceleration of the previously tenacious ‘Trump Bump’ ran into trouble over the weekend. A combination of the negative reaction to the Trump administration selective immigration ban along with Iran launching an ostensibly proscribed (under their nuclear program agreement) ballistic missile test has weighed on the US equities since the top of the week. And in the current circumstances it is no surprise that this has also weighed on the US dollar while bringing just a bit of strength back to the govvies (the operative term on the latter being “just a bit.”)

However, just how vexing the US equities (and the other equities they are influencing) will find the current issues across time is more problematic, and should even clarify over the next several days at most. That is because while the more troubling front may be the Iranian action, without a full cabinet in place it is unlikely the Trump administration will do anything in the near term. More interesting from a market standpoint is that the overall US Congressional response to the immigration executive order has been to attack on another front that has been resolved fairly quickly. That is due to their ire being directed into ever faster quaffing from the Left Kool-Aid dispenser on Trump cabinet nominees.

There have been more expressions of the horror of the President issuing an executive order Democrats have compared to the US closing its borders to the refugees fleeing the Nazis in the 1920’s and 1930’s, damnation of trashing the compassionate US ethos to firing the acting Attorney General of the United States in a “Saturday Night Massacre” (referring back to Nixon’s firing of officials who would not support his attempt to defy a subpoena from Congress during the far more serious Watergate scandal investigation.)  

Yet current Democratic Party attempts to hold up Trump cabinet appointments are ultimately futile… and will only further intensify ‘America’s Kool-Aid Crisis.’

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, analysis, bias, bond, comments, committee, confluence, currency, Democrats, economic, election, Emerging, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Gilt, Gorsuch, govvies, HHS, immigration, Indicators, inflation, interest, interest rate, investment, Kool-Aid, macro, macro-technical, market, markets, media, Mexico, Mnuchin, Obama, Price, quorum, redux, reform, Republicans, risk-off, risk-on, Roadrunner, S&P, S&P 500, Scalia, Senate, structural, structural reform, T-note, technical, Trade, Treasury, TREND, Trump, UK, US dollar

2017/01/26 Commentary: Roadrunner Equities & More Kool-Aid

January 27, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/01/26 Commentary: Roadrunner Equities & More Kool-Aid

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Thursday, January 26, 2017

Roadrunner Equities & More Kool-Aid

RRUNNERcoyoteCHASE-170126It’s a “Roadrunner” US equities market. The rolling ‘Trump Bump’ saw more justification on Wednesday morning from the new President’s previous executive orders accelerating with the friendly moves toward labor unions, confirmation the Mexican border wall will be constructed, approval of oil pipelines and even benefits for steel companies regarding the construction of the pipelines. As such, analysts and investors who were thinking there could be another good sized correction like the one seen at the end of 2016 (this analyst included) have been left in the dust; just like Wile E. Coyote when the Roadrunner dashed away from him in the old-time cartoons after uttering the classical ‘meep-meep’ horn sound. For those of you who are too young to remember those, a recent GEICO insurance ad returns to a brief bit of those antics. You can view that by clicking on the opening graphic.

So now that the US equities have pushed above the old highs and the slightly higher weekly Oscillator resistance, also classically, that resistance must be considered near-term support. While it might seem a bit elevated, there was a hefty bit of previous topping activity since mid-December that should reinforce the area of those previous highs as support. While we will presently get back to that below, after this market oriented opening section’s assessment there are also more observations on America’s Kool-Aid Crisis that have evolved in the last few days with a humorous note at the end.

Yet as far as the March S&P 500 future is concerned, sustained aggressive increases in weekly MA-41 (as it loses old low end Closes from the sharp early 2016 selloff) mean that the extended weekly Oscillator levels now move up roughly $5 each week. That nearest support threshold was up into the 2,258-53 range this week, tested and held on Monday.

Most telling in line with our reticence to chase the rally, the initial higher weekly Oscillator area this week is up to the 2,279-84 area that it has now overrun. It is interesting that this modest buffer above the mid-December through early-January topping congestion, including the March contract trading high and front month all-time continuation high into 2,278.25, was fully exceeded on Wednesday. That is the additional reason the area around that old high is now near-term support. So where next?

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged #zml, 2007, 2007 redux, analysis, bias, bond, comments, confluence, Conway, currency, Democrats, economic, election, employment, environmental, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Gilt, govvies, Green, hiring, immigration, inauguration, Indicators, inflation, interest, interest rate, investment, Kool-Aid, Lubach, macro, macro-technical, mainstream, mainstream media, market, markets, media, Mexico, Nieto, Obama, pipeline, Redford, redux, reform, refugee, refugees, risk-off, risk-on, S&P, S&P 500, structural, structural reform, Syria, T-note, technical, Todd, Trade, TREND, Trump, UK, US dollar, visa

2017/01/20 Commentary: ECB & Kool-Aid II

January 20, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/01/20 Commentary: ECB & Kool-Aid II

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Friday, January 20, 2017

ECB & Kool-Aid II

ECBdraghiPIC-160121As extensive as last Saturday’s Commentary: America’s Kool-Aid Crisis was, our add-on comments today are going to be very brief. And we waited until this morning to allow for all of the final US machinations prior to the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States… even if they appear very much less than united at present. Yet first it is important to review another of the global points of contention: the very low Euro-zone interest rates and continued ECB monetary accommodation that is both designed and likely to keep them there. That is against a backdrop of German inflation rising, and that is also faster than the balance of the Euro-zone. The pressure on Germany’s notoriously successful savers due to the near zero risk-free yields (essentially suffering under negative returns in light of inflation) is continuing to put political pressure on the ECB. While the German politicians are only reflecting these concerns of their conservative constituents, Signore Draghi is right to point out the policy is still right.

He views the problem as a lack of effective explanation of the central bank policies to the German populace rather than any flaw in a policy that must work for a broader Euro-zone. It must not just be oriented toward one country’s economy. This is the downside for a more efficient Germany that is happy to take advantage of the tariff-free European Union. What likely concerns the German politicians and savers is the degree to which this policy is due to continue through 2017 as the balance of the Euro-zone still struggles to come out of its more sluggish growth. Yet those other countries are still dependent on ECB largesse, which Draghi rightfully points out has benefitted the German savers as well through better overall growth than would have otherwise been possible.

There were other interesting points in the press conference as well, yet mostly revisiting previous aspects of ECB policy. Those include the degree to which the recent asset purchase program ‘adjustment’ was NOT a ‘taper’ (i.e. like the Fed’s winding down of the overall program), that there will be plenty of securities to purchase now that shorter maturities are allowed, and that the Quantitative Easing will continue according to plan.

And the Trump inauguration machinations are decidedly more interesting…

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, Aleppo, analysis, bias, bond, boycott, Clinton, comments, confluence, currency, Democrats, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Gilt, govvies, inauguration, Indicators, inflation, interest, interest rate, Kool-Aid, Lewis, macro, macro-technical, market, markets, media, New York Times, NYT, Obama, Putin, redux, reform, risk-off, risk-on, S&P, S&P 500, Shane, structural, structural reform, Syria, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Trump, UK, US dollar
Older posts
Newer posts →
  • Members Area

    • Sign-up here!
    • Sign-in here!
  • Rohr International Full Website Link

    Rohr's Website

  • Rohr International Overview

    • Alan Rohrbach Bio
    • Technicals are Rosetta Stone… and a ‘Little Secret’ About Rigid Schools
    • Rohr’s ‘Essential’ Macro-Technical Analysis Full Background Video… Benefit from the In-Depth Concept and Major Historic Applied Example
    • ‘Big Fed Cut’ with Phil Flynn at CME, also Biden with both “Meaningless” in the face of COVID-19 Surge
    • NOV 20 ‘Santa Baby!’ Follow-Up with Phil Flynn Post-FOMC (OCT 30) and Still Quite Bullish US Equities
    • Pre-FOMC (OCT 30) Interview at CME with Price Group’s Phil Flynn predicting further US equities rally
    • The ROHR Insight Advantage
    • Prescient Rohr Early 2008 Interview 12th Anniversary Relevant Lookback
  • ROHR FT Split Bond Views Letter

    January 12, 2024 - Strong Differing Bond Views Maybe Just a Sideshow
  • ROHR FT 2007 Déjà Vu Letter

    December 8, 2023 - Late 2023 Bond Market Looking A Lot Like mid-2007
  • ROHR FT ‘Medium’ Driver Letter

    November 27, 2017 - Why 'Medium' in the Electric Age is driving polarization
  • ROHR Financial Times ‘Risk’ Letter

    October 20, 2017 - Key View: Massive 'Tame' Passive Investment a Real Risk
  • Focused Rohr Expertise Centers

    Rohr Benefits, Perspective & Analytics Samples in a Nutshell. Take a Look…
  • Rohr Alert!! Active S&P 500 views

    • Current Rohr Trend Alert!! and Extended S&P 500 Oscillator Levels
    • Rohr Trend Alert!! Archives Available on a 2 Week Delay
  • Rohr Global Research Note

    • Current Rohr Research Note
    • Rohr Research Note Archive – Available on a 2 Week Delay
  • Rohr International Weekly Report & Event Color-Coded Calendar

    • Current Bi-Weekly Calendar
    • Bi-Weekly International Calendar Archives
  • Better Market Ideas from Independent Analysis…

    Advice both Institutional Investors and Highly Active Dealers/Traders want. And that is NOT at all just our view. Take a Look…
  • Blog Echelons Content & Fee Tables

    • Subscription Table with Fees. ‘Contact Us’ for 14-Day Free Trial
  • Rohr Global Services with Fees

    • Rohr Global Services: Basic Blog onto Full Institutional Advisory
  • Media

    • Rohr’s ‘Essential’ Macro-Technical Analysis Full Background Video… Benefit from In-Depth Concept and Major Historic Applied Example
    • Executive Series Topical Q&A with Ceres Limited’s Brian Jenkins
    • Television
    • Radio
    • Print
    • ‘Teachable Moment’ Analysis Videos from key price trend turning points. Some vintage (2013), some current, all relevant insights. (Accessible for Gold and Platinum subscribers only)
    • Rohr’s Macro-Market Daily e-zine with Multifaceted International Perspective and Broad-Based News (click the title to access the paper)
  • Rohr Website Pages

    • ‘New/Old’ Markets Paradigm
    • ROHR: Methodology & Perspectives
    • ROHR Client Testimonials
    • Alan Rohrbach’s LinkedIn Profile (requires LinkedIn membership)
  • Rohr-Blog Post Calendar

    October 2025
    M T W T F S S
     12345
    6789101112
    13141516171819
    20212223242526
    2728293031  
    « Jul    
  • Archives

  • Hottest Rohr-Blog Topics

    analysis Asia Australia BoE BoJ Bund China comments confluence DAX debt dollar Draghi ECB economic employment equities Euro Europe Fed fixed income FOMC Foreign Exchange FTSE GDP Germany Gilt Indicators inflation instability Japan macro macro-technical NIKKEI PMI Pound QE S&P 500 T-note technical TREND UK US dollar Yellen Yen
Copyright © 2011 Rohr International's Blog ...evolved capital markets insights
Top