2017/03/08 Commentary: OECD versus ADP
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Commentary: Wednesday, March 8, 2017
OECD versus ADP
It was a fairly quiet if weak Tuesday in US equities in light of all the negative influences that could have created more pressure. That included a less than inspiring Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) major semiannual Interim Economic Outlook. It seemed less upbeat than their recent monthly Composite Leading Indicators might have suggested. There was also the German Factory Orders which ‘tanked’ relative to the only modestly weaker estimates, and the not very well received release of the US Congress’ draft of its healthcare reform (i.e. the now well-worn “repeal and replace Obamacare.”) The latter is a very important precursor to any of the more important tax reform. It is assumed healthcare reform must be clearly articulated prior to tax reform being possible.
This is reasonable. Given the major nature of the financial parameters of any future healthcare programs, until they are at least significantly outlined it is not possible to realistically address the overall federal budget. Yet our real focus is the nature of what OECD had to say about the global economy, and whether the current upbeat assumptions are dangerously inflated relative to the real-world growth potentials.
As will become apparent through the course of this discussion, this relates back to a goodly degree to our recent focus on ‘European Kool-Aid’. That is at least insofar as the lack of structural reform there (and some other select locales) represents a drag on the global economy even after all of the more upbeat US expectations.
Yet before we commence with that extended discussion, we remind you that we have also provided the ‘technical note’ we mentioned previous on adjustments to weekly Oscillator projections. It is in the lower section’s Extended Trend Assessment. While US equities are reacting at present, those will become important if the major bull trend is reinvigorated for a push to a new high above last week’s front month S&P 500 future test of the 2,400 area.
Last but not least prior to returning to the OECD Interim Economic Outlook, in the midst of everything else going on last week it was easy for its concise Quarterly Trade Statistics (our marked-up version) to get lost in the shuffle. However, as they refer to them in the Interim Economic Outlook, we thought you might want to have a look.
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.
2017/03/02 Commentary: Trumponomics & Kool-Aid Coda
2017/03/02 Commentary: Trumponomics & Kool-Aid Coda
© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
Commentary: Thursday, March 2, 2017
Trumponomics & Kool-Aid Coda
Then there was the Fed Beige Book release at 14:00 EST which showed continued growth in all districts. While some of them flagged a bit of retail turnover weakness, the overall tone was more upbeat than it has been through 2015 and much of 2016. And the prospect of this fomenting three further FOMC rate hikes this year (versus lingering suspicion there could only be two hikes) encouraged the US equities after lunchtime. While it has lapsed into a bit more of a correction after that additional new all-time high push, Wednesday’s rally leaves a lot of room for moderate downside corrections while leaving the overall bullish trend intact. This has been the case for all rallies since the US election result dramatically changed the major economic and market sentiment for the better.
While we will have more on reasons behind the most recent round of the ‘Trump Effect’ below, we purposely waited until late this week to post our next full commentary because we sensed further developments forthcoming on the ‘European Kool-Aid’ front. And we were not disappointed. This is the ‘coda’ that will finish our observations after the ‘trilogy’ of the past two weeks. The reason is that the current news reinforces and intensifies all of our previous views on how badly the European powers-that-be are wrapped up in their own perspective (Kool-Aid drinkers) that they fail to see the folly in their approach.
There were further developments in both the overall EU approach to its union’s members from nobody less than European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker as well as further ideas on German and European refugee policies from German Chancellor Merkel. In the final analysis we cannot figure out which is more misguided. It’s a tough call.
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.
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