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2017/06/16 Commentary: FOMC: All Options Open

June 16, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/06/16 Commentary: FOMC: All Options Open

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Friday, June 16, 2017

FOMC: All Options Open

The FOMC was in fact a bit more hawkish Wednesday. That is in spite of the fact that Janet Yellen is right that federal funds at 1.00%-1.25% are nominally accommodative compared to Core US Consumer Price Index data that just dropped back from 1.9% to 1.7% Wednesday hours before the afternoon FOMC announcements. Yet it is also the case which Chair Yellen and all other central bankers have always made that the central bank cannot get drawn into reacting when there is any minor aberration in the near term statistical context. The other related aspect is Thursday morning’s Bank of England (BoE) rate decision and meeting minutes (also the reason we waited until today’s extended market responses to provide views on the FOMC action and other influences.)

One only needs to review the first few pages of the BoE Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting for reconfirmation of the unique inflation pressures in the UK. While at the last full BoE Inflation Report press conference on May 11th Governor Carney indicated a preference to favor employment over inflation mitigation, today’s 5-3 vote to hold the Bank Rate steady at 0.25% was closer than many had expected in spite of recent higher-than-expected UK inflation. That is another indication of major central bank accommodation withdrawal even as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to remain very accommodative.

Yet the Fed’s situation is much different in dealing with still stubbornly weak inflation (like the Euro-zone and Japan) in spite of ostensible (the operative term) improvement in the US and other countries employment picture. (More on that below.) As Chair Yellen once again emphasized in her press conference as well, the Fed remains confident that current sluggish growth is transitory. The FOMC Statement kind of summed it all up, with very little change from the previous indications. Those who are inclined can also review Janet Yellen’s full hour long press conference as well as the revised projections.  

The other factor returning after positive influence of AG Sessions’ testimony is President Trump aggressively tweeting once again. Temporarily unsettling for equities at times.

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as last Friday morning’s update (lower section) of last Wednesday’s Commentary: Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, anticipatory, BoE, BoJ, collusion, Comey, comments, Congress, Counsel, crisis, Democrat, dollar, ECB, economic, election, employment, equities, Fed, govvies, hacking, healthcare, macro, media, Mueller, pre-Crisis, QE, rate, Rates, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Russia, stimulus, tax, Trump, tweet

2017/06/13 Commentary: The Sessions Session

June 13, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/06/13 Commentary: The Sessions Session 

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Sessions Session   

The US equities seem to be enjoying the gradual progression of a development on some of the contentious claims on Trump administration possible involvement in potential collusion with Russia (or at least Russia-affiliated individuals) during the 2016 US general election. While some of its opponents on the Left will point to what they felt Attorney General (AG) Jeff Sessions was not willing to say during Senate Intelligence Committee testimony today, it is what he said that was most striking. Especially in the context of some key questions also left conveniently unanswered in ex-FBI Director Comey’s testimony in front of the same panel last Thursday, Sessions did something that Left-wing opposition Senators are not used to seeing: he hit back hard on contentious questions citing vague innuendos. As noted in the opening graphic label, you can see this for yourself in the associated video. 

Especially note Sessions’ fiery response to Senator Wyden’s leading question from 01:30 onward. Shortly after that Sessions is pressed on why he cannot answer all concerns that even regard his private conversations with the President. You will need to access the full testimony for his extended response that there are matters Cabinet officers can withhold from Congress pending the decision by the President on whether they can be released.

Some Democratic Senators repeatedly objected to this. Ahhh, how quickly they forget. Regarding often obfuscatory testimony of Obama AG Eric Holder, the Dems had no problem on many matters of Justice Department withholding of information. Yet this just gets back to the exploration in our January 14th Commentary: America’s Kool-Aid Crisis post on the intractably partisan nature of US politics at this time.

Yet as Sessions’ testimony was supposed to bring bombshell answers to the questions left unanswered in Comey’s testimony, it mostly had the opposite effect. It is dawning on some still moderate Democrats “there is no there there” on the entire alleged Trump campaign collusion with Russians last year, which equities seem to like.

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as Friday morning’s update (lower section) of Wednesday evening’s Commentary: Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, Agreement, ban, Comey, comments, Congress, Democrat, Director, dismiss, economic, election, employment, equities, FBI, general, hacking, healthcare, macro, OSG, Paris Agreement, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Rosenstein, Russia, Senate, Sessions, solicitor, solicitor general, stimulus, tax, travel, travel ban, Trump, tweet

2017/06/07 Commentary: Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back

June 7, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/06/07 Commentary: Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back  

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back   

As we immediately noted in last Thursday evening’s Commentary: Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets post, the US President could not resist extensive tweeting once again almost immediately upon return from his first major foreign trip to the Middle East and Europe. After the surprise release of ex-FBI Director Comey’s prepared remarks today the question is whether Trump will be live tweeting during Comey’s Thursday testimony. In any event, the President is back to burdening himself and his administration with self-inflicted tweet-driven wounds.

And while some of them do not relate directly to the administration’s legislative agenda, they are damaging for several reasons. The first is the time it takes from administration officials to explain or defend them in addition the burden on Congressmen who are asked to comment. All of that also amounts to diminishing the standing of the President at a time when his leadership is ever more essential to shepherd his various programs through Congress. And it goes beyond that…

…as the serial nature of some of his Twitter missteps (and others) bring into question his ability to comprehend how Washington DC works, and it is not adapting to his unorthodox style. The opening graphic on the TRAVEL BAN is a case in point. The early Monday tweets reasserted the President’s real feelings, and most observers on both the Right and Left say they will significantly hurt chances the ban will be found constitutional even at a now Right leaning Supreme Court. And the problem goes way beyond just that simple phrase, as it was the first (06:25 EDT Monday morning) of four tweets that all compounded that initial misstep, as we will review at some length below.

Yet all of that said, and even in the context of the extended negative implications explored below, the US equities do not seem to care at present. The previous hiccups in the bull trend seen after Trump missteps are lacking at present. As was covered at length in last Thursday’s Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets post, it seems the equities are happy to react constructively to the lower regulatory burdens (of which the Paris Agreement was a major one), and anticipate somehow the Trump reform and stimulus agenda will become law. And therein is the reason for equities divergence against the govvies and US dollar..,

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, Agreement, ban, Comey, comments, Congress, Conway, Court, covfefe, Democrat, Director, dismiss, economic, election, employment, environment, equities, expedited, expedited hearing, extreme, extreme vetting, FBI, Fed, general, greenhouse, hacking, headline, healthcare, hearing, hiatus, macro, media, OSG, Paris Agreement, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Russia, SCOTUS, solicitor, solicitor general, Spicer, stimulus, Supreme, Supreme Court, tax, travel, travel ban, Trump, tweet, vetting

2017/06/01 Commentary: Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets

June 1, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/06/01 Commentary: Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets  

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Thursday, June 1, 2017

Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets  

Tweets-In. Paris-Out. Yes indeed, as we expected the US President could not resist extensive tweeting once again almost immediately upon return from his first major foreign trip to the Middle East and Europe. As noted in Tuesday morning’s Commentary: Still Happy and Friendly? post, the Fed is likely to remain ‘friendly’ within somewhat weaker than expected economic data into the early second quarter (at least until Thursday’s over the top ADP Employment data.) However, the ‘happy’ hysterical headline hiatus that saw the President’s detractors in a lower key mode while he was away on his trip was over. And this was on both a somewhat reasonable level of the renewed Presidential tweets regarding son-in-law Jared Kushner becoming involved in yet another Russian contact investigation, and the irrational level of a partial tweet which was obviously incoherent and once again caused some distraction. While we are going to review each of those below, it is important to note that the President’s Twitter activity has been superseded by his more substantial policy move today: Pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement on greenhouse gas emissions. There is a lot of argument on both sides why this was either the right or wrong thing to do. That said, the real point is the market response in what was a fraught environment due to the President returning to Twitter: US equities decided that the US leaving the Paris accord (never ratified as a treaty) was a good thing.

There is some basis for that in lower burdens on US corporations, which will also likely be more profitable due to less need to heed more restrictive environmental standards. It is of concern that this will not be as friendly for the global environment we all share. Yet there is also part of the Paris Agreement which Trump rightfully criticized: It was yet another example of a ‘bad’ Barack Obama ‘deal’. Obama was legend for completing deals whether or not they made any sense. The poster child for that was the Paris Agreement…

Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as Wednesday morning’s update (lower section) of Tuesday morning’s Commentary: Still Happy and Friendly? post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, Agreement, Comey, comments, Congress, Counsel, covfefe, Democrat, Director, dismiss, ECB, economic, election, employment, environment, equities, FBI, Fed, greenhouse, hacking, headline, healthcare, hiatus, Huffington, Kushner, macro, media, MSNBC, Mueller, Paris, Paris Agreement, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Russia, Spicer, stimulus, tax, Trump, tweet

2017/05/30 Commentary: Still Happy and Friendly?

May 30, 2017 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2017/05/30 Commentary: Still Happy and Friendly?

© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

Commentary: Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Still Happy and Friendly?

Chances are that things may remain ‘friendly’ yet may not be so ‘happy’ as they have been of late. While we have been signaling that there was a very happy ‘hysterical headline hiatus’ (see last Wednesday’s post including that designation) due to President Trump being on his Middle East and European first foreign trip over the past week and a half, that’s over now. And even as his detractors were very consistent in maintaining their criticism of him during that trip, his positions in various overseas meetings took a more prominent place in the headlines. Yet even as he had barely returned to the US into the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, he could not resist getting back to heavy tweeting. This time it is on what he claims is the ‘phony’ nature of the investigation of Jared Kushner’s contact with Russian officials to set up ‘back channel’ (i.e. unofficial) communications.

Whether that contact between Kushner and the Russians was normal, and importantly who initiated it, are moot. The fact that it is being investigated and Kushner has agreed to cooperate with whichever officials might want to look into it should make it a non-story for now. And the President himself has retained some very competent counsel to defend him on all matters Russian (going back to the alleged election campaign collusion to influence the US election.)

So what’s the big deal? Quite simply it is that the President is tweeting again. And in the past that has triggered enough distraction to weigh on progress of the important Trump administration tax reform and infrastructure stimulus legislative agenda. It has been easy for US equities to squeeze up to modest new serial all-time highs (above March 1st levels) over the past couple of weeks in the absence of the drama of the President’s fights with the media and others. Now that he is back and not as scripted as he was on his foreign trip, can we expect this to continue?

Frankly, we are skeptical. So the happy ‘hysterical headline hiatus’ may be over. If more distraction and tumult result from the President returning to previous form are indeed what we see next, expect the US equities and US dollar to weaken once again, and the govvies to maintain their recent bid. Yet there is still one ‘friendly’ equities factor that is being reinforced, even if in a perverse manner on recent form…

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, AG, classified, Comey, comments, Congress, Counsel, Democrat, Director, dismiss, durable, ECB, economic, election, employment, EU, FBI, Fed, FOMC, Goods, hacking, headline, healthcare, hiatus, housing, Kushner, leak, macro, media, Mueller, Paychex, redux, reform, Republican, risk-off, risk-on, Russia, stimulus, tax, Trump
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