2014/02/10: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, February 10, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
The strength of the equity's in the wake of all-around weak data on Friday is a sign of yet another psychological change. Especially as the March S&P 500 future only dipped very temporarily back below the key 1,762 December 18th initial FOMC QE taper low. Quickly back above it in pre-Regular Trading Hours action, it ultimately left a gap higher up near 1,780 and a low of the day at 1,772.70 on its way back up to 1,794.
The question over just what is going on with the stronger equities even as govvies continue to keep the bid on the weak news is addressed by two, possibly interrelated, psychological developments. The obvious yet less likely consideration is whether "bad news is good news" again. Yet for that to be true, the Fed would have to be moving back toward more extensive Quantitative Easing. For various reasons (including the fact the anti-QE camp seems to have won the debate over whether it is economically effective) that does not seem a realistic assumption.
Of course, it might still temporarily infect the market psychology, especially in a week when new Fed chairman Yellen is set to testify tomorrow and again on Thursday. The other influence might be the most recent emerging markets crisis abating to some degree. Portfolio managers who were waiting for a correction prior to committing more cash to the market might see the correction as having been here and gone. Even if the equities are topping for a broader correction, that might allow some further strength in the near-term (i.e. at least back up into the low 1,800s to test previous failure levels.) We have seen activity of that sort prior to somewhat larger corrections in each of the last three years.
The video analysis is not available this morning due to technical problems. Those should be resolved by later today, and we look forward to providing the next installment by Tuesday morning at the latest. In the meantime, the full General Update below covers all of the markets. We hope you find that useful, and appreciate your patience while we address our technical difficulties.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the link in the sidebar]
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: To be resumed by Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis’ General Update
2014/02/10: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)
2014/02/10: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, February 10, 2014 (late)
As noted this morning, the strength of the equity's in the wake of all-around weak data on Friday is a sign of yet another psychological change. Especially as the March S&P 500 future only dipped very temporarily back below the key 1,762 December 18th initial FOMC QE taper low after the weak US Employment report on Friday prior to pushing up to 1,794.
The question of what is going on with stronger equities even as govvies continue to keep the bid on the weak news is addressed by two, possibly interrelated, psychological developments. The obvious yet less likely consideration is whether "bad news is good news" again. Yet for that to be true, the Fed would have to be moving back toward more extensive Quantitative Easing. For various reasons (including the fact the anti-QE camp seems to have won the debate over whether it is economically effective) that does not seem a realistic assumption.
Of course, it might still temporarily infect the market psychology, depending on what new Fed chairman Yellen has to say tomorrow and again on Thursday. The other influence might be the most recent emerging markets crisis abating to some degree. Portfolio managers who were waiting for a correction might see the correction as having been and gone. Even if the equities are topping for a broader correction, that might allow some further strength in the near-term (i.e. at least back up into the low 1,800s to test previous failure levels.) As noted previous, we have seen activity of that sort prior to somewhat larger corrections in each of the last three years.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) factor discussion of the degree to which the equities are likely hostage to whatever Janet Yellen has to say, and how well it conforms to her ‘independent Fed’ confirmation hearing testimony. As there is little critical data elsewhere, she will be the real focal point.
It moves on from there to the March S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 04:45 and intermediate-term at 05:15, then the other equities from 07:15, with govvies analysis beginning at 10:45 (including an expanded weekly chart of the Bund) and short money forwards at 15:10. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 18:40, jumping over to Europe at 19:45 and Asia at 22:10, followed by the cross rates at 25:35, and a return to the March S&P 500 future at 30:35 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis’ General Update
Read more...