2014/11/28 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, November 28, 2014 (early)
MACRO INFLUENCE ALERT: Due to Thursday’s US Thanksgiving Day holiday, almost all end of month US data was jammed into Wednesday. Today only sees NAPM Milwaukee in the US. However, there was still quite a bit of important data from other centers throughout the balance of the week. That makes for a very interesting finish to the month today. Due to Thanksgiving being a midweek holiday, all US markets have early Closes today, around 12:00 CST.
And regardless of the nature of the data, there are other important influences which have impacted the markets of late. As just one example, Monday morning’s Markit Triennial Survey was a negative shock. And Tuesday’s OECD Economic Outlook that was focused on Europe pointed up the reasons it was likely to remain weak in the near term, even if it agreed with the need for the ECB’s intensified Quantitative Easing program. With a few exceptions, the economic data remains downbeat. Yet that is buffered to a goodly degree for the equities by the continued major energy price slide, which also supports govvies.
The entire OECD report and full webcast video are available on the OECD website. (link it www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm ) That very good (if lengthy at just under one hour) webcast recording of the discussion by OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann is worth viewing. In fact, their analysis is easier viewing than reading. Most importantly, it highlights a very telling point for the global economy: the Euro-zone problem now is more so a lack of domestic demand than the previous lack of competitiveness. And in that it definitely supports ECB President Draghi’s current accelerated QE efforts.
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above, weakness of Thursday’s Chinese Industrial Production and Industrial Profits offset modestly by somewhat better than expected Euro-zone end of month sentiment indicators. The bigger influence is the NYMEX JANUARY CRUDE OIL FUTURE drop from 77.00 earlier this week to 68.00 overnight (i.e. below 70.00 support.)
It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:00, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:15 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:45, jumping over to EUROPE at 21:50 and ASIA at 24:40, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:40 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:30 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the major macro influence discussion, we suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.