2015/05/21 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, May 21, 2015 (early)
Concise Highlights on the govvies and foreign exchange follow yesterday’s review of the equities, which remain pretty much the same. Both govvies and foreign exchange are also more interesting in the wake of the most recent data and the release of major central bank meeting minutes from yesterday into this morning. And it is of note that both the BoE and FOMC were indeed as dovish as all the previous statements and communications from everyone (except a few rate hawks) would suggest.
Another interesting aspect was this morning’s ECB meeting details (not necessarily the full minutes like the Fed and BoE) release that pointed up their satisfaction with the initial impact of their QE program. And why not? Look at the response of the DAX for the first part of this year, and even Tuesday’s rebound from recent weakness on the suggestion they would accelerate their QE program in the near term. That is to avoid a typically low issuance period into the summer. Never mind this is simply a technical adjustment, and will still result in the average monthly purchases of €60 billion that is confirmed in the meeting details. The equities and govvies still rallied on that news.
Yet the somewhat better data has presented a problem for the govvies in the near term. That was most apparent in the rude surprise from much better than expected US Housing Starts and Building Permits Tuesday morning. That is now back in the wake of the better than expected UK Retail Sales this morning as we head toward important US data on the Advance Manufacturing PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Leading Indicators and the Philly and KC Fed Indices throughout this morning. And there are more global impacts on Friday.
Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above. It is also worth noting the data shifted back to strong this week except for a couple of key items like the Chinese Advance Manufacturing PMI that only improved to 49.10 versus a 49.30 expectation. And the weakness in both German Advance PMI’s even as French Manufacturing strengthened left the overall Euro-zone PMI weaker.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 06:30 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 08:20, leading to GOVVIES at 09:20 (with mention of the very critical activity in the BUND from 12:15) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:00. Foreign exchange begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:00 and Europe at 17:45 with ASIA at 21:10 and CROSS RATES at 24:00 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 27:10 for a final look and further comment.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.