2014/04/23: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, April 23, 2014 (early)
Concise Highlights
The extended implications of last Tuesday’s June S&P 500 future recovery back above 1,833-1,828 range confirmed that while the equities may still have topped, there is a bear squeeze in progress that is entitled to carry up to higher resistances for now. Further ‘good’ US economic data has probably helped change the tone in the face of mixed data elsewhere and geopolitical tensions in eastern Ukraine. And the other headline factor which might be affecting the psychology is the quarterly earnings reporting season being in full swing.
The tendency across many quarters since the US passed the Sarbanes-Oxley rules has been for corporate executives to under promise and then outperform. As opposed to the Dot.Com Boom’s ‘puffy’ earnings predictions that often disappointed, it has been just the opposite for years now… and the first quarter reports are no different. The many factors which had been used as cautionary indications (weather, geopolitical stresses, the sustained weakness in France seen again in today’s Advance PMI’s, etc.) have typically been overcome to produce upbeat actual earnings.
Of course, this is constructive for stock markets and weighing a bit on government bonds. However, continued pressure on US consumers noted previous from higher taxes, higher healthcare insurance costs, energy prices remaining high, etc. might still be the combined factors which weigh on the US economy right into this quarter. Yet for now the earnings reports are a bit better than expected. And that is in spite of not getting as much help as previous from other quarters, like China and Europe.
As the June S&P 500 future was up further early this week, the burden of proof is definitely back on the bears to get it to fail back below last Wednesday’s 1,840 UP Break as well as the heavy 1,833-28 range congestion at some point. That said, there was still plenty of resistance above the market into the 1,865-68 range (now critical short-term support until it fails again) and the 1,877 Negated major daily Rectangle UP Break tested yesterday.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of yesterday’s firm US data, and the weak overnight data out of Asia, Europe and the UK. We now await Canadian Retail Sales and US Advance Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales (the natural complement to yesterday’s weakish Existing Home Sales.)
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate-term at 04:20 including the important pattern and trend implications of last week’s strength extending into yesterday, the other equities at 06:20 and mention of the govvies at 07:10, short money forwards at 07:30, and discussion of foreign exchange also remaining much more subdued than other asset classes at 07:40. The only two currencies worth a look are the weakness in both AUD/USD at 08:00 and USD/JPY at 08:45, with a return to the June S&P 500 future at 09:35 for a final view and additional perspective.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments are available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update
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2014/04/24: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/04/24: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, April 24, 2014 (early)
The extended implications of last week Tuesday’s June S&P 500 future recovery back above 1,833-1,828 range confirmed that while the equities may still have topped, there is a bear squeeze in progress that was entitled to carry up to higher resistances. Even weak US economic data yesterday could not create much of a selloff, and the reason became clear after the US equities Close: much better than expected earnings (including the nature of the earnings) from some key US companies. And that has put the June S&P 500 future up above the 1,877 Negated major daily Rectangle UP Break. That looks fairly powerful.
And it would be hard to worry about the residual resistance from the April 4th Employment report failure 1,883-87 DOWN CPR ‘outside day’ if it were not for the lack of further upside follow through this morning. So there remains that barrier for the market in spite of how good it feels right now… more on that below. Yet for now the burden of proof is on the bears to get it to fail back below both 1,877 and the hefty 1,865-68 congestion that held so well on the early correction yesterday.
And whatever the other economic data might tell us, the other headline factor which is affecting the psychology is quarterly earnings reports now in full swing. And the typical tendency was glaringly apparent yesterday. For many quarters since the US passed the Sarbanes-Oxley rules corporate executives have under promised so the actual earnings could outperform. The many factors which had been used as cautionary indications (weather, geopolitical stresses, etc.) have typically been overcome to produce upbeat actual earnings. Yet that is still only relative to downbeat guidance.
Of course, this is constructive for stock markets and weighing a bit on government bonds. However, continued pressure on US consumers noted previous from higher taxes, higher healthcare insurance costs, energy prices remaining high, etc. still might still be the combined factors which weigh on the US economy right into this quarter. Yet for now the earnings reports are better than expected. And that is in spite of not getting as much help as previous from other quarters, like China and Europe.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of yesterday’s weak US data that was also countered by strong overseas data into this morning. That includes China, Europe and the UK. Since the video was recorded we have also seen much better than expected US Durable Goods Orders, also with little further improvement in the June S&P 500 future. While the Weekly Unemployment Claims spiked up, it is still of note that the equities did not improve much on that. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index is pending later this morning. All of which is important due to less important data on Friday (except UK Retail Sales and US Advance Services PMI.)
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:40 and intermediate-term at 04:00 including the important pattern and trend implications of last week’s strength extending into this week, the other equities at 07:10 and mention of the govvies at 09:30, short money forwards at 10:15, and discussion of foreign exchange also remaining much more subdued than other asset classes at 10:30. The only two currencies worth a look are the weakness in both AUD/USD at 11:00 and USD/JPY at 12:30, with a return to the June S&P 500 future at 13:50 for a final view and additional perspective.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments are available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update
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