2015/11/27 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, November 27, 2015 (early)
There is much that is the same as noted in Tuesday’s Global View post, and we refer you back to that for our view on the Turkish downing of a Russian military jet was not going to be very telling for the overall up trend in the equities. And so it is. Much like the horrific French terror attack, it is a tragedy of sorts, but not necessarily a market disaster. That will remain true unless it gets much worse (I.e. full blown Russian-Turkish hostilities) in the near term.
And while we remain skeptical of equities overall, since the top of the week we reminded everyone that the Santa Claus (more like ‘Santa Portfolio Manager’) rally influence was about to begin. As it is more so a ‘steady’ year than a significant gain situation, this may not amount to much more than the Santa ‘resilient underpinning’ rather than ‘rally’. Yet it is important to note this still means a tendency toward willing buyers on selloffs. For more on ‘Santa Portfolio Manager’ that we remind folks is actually the case every year (at least in the firm-strong ones) see last November’s post on that.
So while our longer term equities skepticism abides, we have learned over many years (even when we were very bearish into the end of 2007) that into and after Thanksgiving is NOT the time to press the bearish case. More likely we are now in a wide swinging affair with potential to revisit more major lower supports and hold; even if the major higher resistances are not going to be violated in a weaker US economy with a hawkish Fed.
Speaking of Thanksgiving, we welcome our US friends back from what we hope was a very enjoyable holiday feast. Also note the holiday weekend means early Closings in all US markets today. That even atypically includes New York Stock Exchange at 13:00 EST.
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the factors noted above along with the return to weaker data in the US. Wednesday’s Durable Goods, new Home Sales and Michigan Sentiment have led into weaker than expected Asian data today. There is nothing out in the US after Wednesday’s pre-Thanksgiving holiday early release of some data the next major tranche is not until Monday’s last day of the month.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, GOVVIES beginning at 09:30 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 12:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 14:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:15, EUROPE at 20:00 and ASIA at 22:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 25:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 29:30. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.