2014/07/22: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, July 22, 2014 (early)
Just for record we note once again that it is no joy that the success of our negative view of the equities and associated analysis in other asset classes is being abated and accelerated by the tragic events in Ukraine and geopolitical disruption elsewhere. Our sympathy goes out to all of the affected folks and their families. Yet in spite of these problems, the equities recovery Friday into early this week is interesting. It illustrates the degree to which equity market participants have possibly still not taken the potential risks inherent in multiple unstable geopolitical developments quite as seriously as they should. We do not typically indulge in partisan expression reserved for our Commentary posts in market analysis. Yet rather than bring a more cooperative global environment, the lack of US leadership predictably encourages less constructive actors to further their agendas. The US administration’s inability to appreciate and anticipate the potential for this is now disturbing to markets as well. Even one fairly centrist observer has noted that there is now an ‘arch of instability’.
The classical question, “Are the equities back in a ‘bad news is good news’ psychology?” was already not faring well in the wake of serial soft European economic data. That led to DOWN Breakouts in European equities mitigating US strength. Last week push up into the previous September S&P 500 future 1,977.60-1,974.80 gap lower seemed to be on the anticipation and then the fact of Janet Yellen remain very dovish in her semi-annual Congressional testimony (with Q&A.) While equities duly held up through Wednesday, they were already under pressure on the lapsing of the ‘Yellen Factor’ last Thursday morning even prior to radical events driving the extended selloff. And the violation of 1,960 support led to the test of more prominent 1,950 prior to the Friday recovery.
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above and the continued weak data out of both Asia and especially Europe, plus the weakness of last week’s US Housing Starts data along with Michigan Sentiment and Leading Indicators. It notes the pending US CPI, Existing Home Sales and Richmond Fed index today.
It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 01:35 and intermediate term at 04:20, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:15, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:45 (with an expanded BUND future weekly chart to review the critical nature of the 147.20 and mid 148.00 areas) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 21:40 and ASIA at 24:00, followed the CROSS RATES at 25:50 (with an expanded EUR/GBP weekly chart to review the critical nature of .8000-.7950), and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 29:20 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.