2014/10/21 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, October 21, 2014 (early)
Quite a bit has obviously changed since the equities’ depths of last Wednesday. That all culminated in the confluence of crises that we summed up in last Wednesday afternoon’s Commentary: Fear and Loathing in Las Markets with a major negative opinion on Europe along the way. And while our negative views on Europe and Asia remain, some things have come along to temper the outright negativity apparently overblown last Wednesday when everything looked terrible for a little while; especially the US Ebola factor. We will revisit that below.
For now it is important to note a key technical trend factor that reflects the improved equities psychology and informs the early week trend view in other asset classes as well. That is the recovery of the December S&P 500 future back above the 1,900 area. As well as the other technical reasons cited below, that is the area of the 41-week moving average. That is our proxy for the 200-day moving average, which is a very well acknowledged indication for the overall trend momentum.
If indeed the December S&P 500 future can manage to maintain its bid to Close back above it today after almost $100 of slippage below it last week, it will encourage the bulls. That is both the technical signal fans who use crossing above it as a ‘buy’ signal, and the psychology for more fundamentally oriented investors who also happen to keep an eye on a select number of technical indicators (even if they are often rue to admit it.)
While this may all be part of evolving a broader top, some significant further strength is to be expected if it maintains any sort of bid above the 1,900 area. And the broader psychological drivers for that are as important as the economic data right now.
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. It also mentions the mixed data of late reverting back to weakness on Monday’s Japanese Store Sales and Eurozone Current Account. Today’s Chinese data was in line to a bit better than expected as we head into only US Existing Home Sales as the only US data. Yet we continue to caution that two way volatility will continue due to corporate earnings season now being a prominent factor.
It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:00, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:40, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 17:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:20 and ASIA at 27:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:30 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 33:40 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the extensive trend swings last week and extensive fundamental influences, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.