2014/04/14: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, April 14, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

The extended implications of Thursday’s June S&P 500 future Close below the 1,833-1,828 range confirming the “Equities have topped” perspective from after the previous Friday’s poor US Employment report response was very clear. Further ‘good’ US economic data was not enough to offset the cumulative weak data from elsewhere. Of course, that also included some weaker US data the equities had conveniently ignored on the way up (especially the weaker than expected PMI’s that were reflected in Germany as well, and still weak global trade data… especially China.)

After the week ago Friday failure, we felt the US was leading all the equities into a broader correction, even if classical form still left room to retest the various higher resistances; such as June S&P 500 future 1,865-68 most recent short-term DOWN Break and previous hefty congestion it reached in the wake of the still very accommodative FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon. Of course, that didn’t stop the psychology from getting so stale again Thursday morning that it dropped below 1,833-1,828 for the US Close. Which made Friday’s further erosion below the previous month-and-a-half trading lows a foregone conclusion if there was no immediate recovery back above 1,833-1,828  instead of the meager test of the low end of the range after Friday’s gap lower opening.

There is now consideration that extensive further slippage below 1,833-28 has left that significant month-and-a-half ‘superstructure’ of resistance above the market. In those cases it is not likely any market holds the near term support, and the June S&P 500 future is not likely an exception. While the Fibonacci and minor congestion support at 1,810, it seems more likely this market can see the more major levels into 1,800 or even lower major trend supports. That it has come up so far without a sustained correction since late 2012 leaves it vulnerable to some extensive slippage below 1,800; even if that would only be down to more major bull trend support (more below.)        

The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above along with the as expected Euro-zone Industrial Production numbers as we awaited the US Retail Sales figures. In the event, those turned out to be stronger –than- expected, which is assisting a short term equities bounce this morning. Yet with a light reporting day today, it will be more important how markets respond to much more extensive critical releases (including European and Chinese data) from tomorrow onward.

It moves on from that overview to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 01:35 and intermediate-term at 04:30, then the other equities from 07:15, with govvies analysis beginning at 17:25 and short money forwards at 17:00. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 21:00, jumping over to Europe at 22:50 and Asia at 26:00, followed by the cross rates at 30:00, and a return to June S&P 500 future at 34:00 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to its assessment of significant near term contingencies in the S&P 500 and govvies, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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