2014/11/21 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, November 21, 2014 (early)
Helloooo Santa! Or should we say ‘Santas’? It seems they are cropping up all over. There’s Santa Portfolio Manager, who was already dispersing goodies to the rest of the market participants in the form of any remaining cash disgorged from their collective portfolios to ensure they look fully invested into the end of a very good equities year. Now there’s Santa PBOC, as the People’s Bank of China cuts its base rate overnight for the first time in two years. This is the upside of those nasty Advance PMI’s on Thursday that saw Chinese Manufacturing PMI drop back to exactly 50.0.
In spite of the Fed ending its Quantitative Easing program, this demonstrates it can still be a ‘bad news is good news’ environment for equities. In addition to the very positive US equities activity Thursday in the wake of those weak PMI’s that are more current than the upbeat US data, the firmness of the govvies speaks of more QE psychology than over economic strength driving the market psychology right now.
And how about Super Mario over at the ECB? Signore Draghi was adamant in his remarks this morning from the European Banking Congress that the ECB was already pursuing its major balance sheet expansion. Even if that is through Asset Backed Securities rather than direct government bond purchases (as ‘monetary financing’ remains a no-no), it obviously still counts. All of that can be added to Santa BoJ and Santa Crude Oil both contributing strongly to the equities buoyancy.
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of a some of the factors noted above, including the weak PMI’s being countered by more upbeat data out of Japan, Europe and especially Thursday’s the over the top US economic data. It also notes that the only additional data today of any note is US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index… not very often a trend decisive influence. So it’s up, up and away for equities.
It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:45, with OTHER EQUITIES from 06:45, and GOVVIES at 10:20 with only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:30. Mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:00, EUROPE at 16:30 and ASIA at 17:15, and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 18:00 for a final look and additional perspective.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.