2018/06/10 Weekend: Indi-gestur-ion and the G7
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Weekend: Sunday, June 10, 2018
Indi-gestur-ion and the G7
Yes, that title term is a play on words combining indigestion and gesture. It directly relates to President Trump’s penchant for the ad hoc ‘grand gesture’. We have criticized that before as less than optimal in many cases, often needing to be remediated by subsequent adjustment of a bold statement or threat. However, he is not the only culprit, as the highly disparate sides in Italy’s current far Left and alt-Right coalition have recently demonstrated. (More on that below.) Yet first it is important to note that some of the President Trump’s more unconventional or outrageous ad hoc policy announcements have had a shock effect on the global politico-economic psychology. This has more than a passing impact, as it will also influence who is willing to work in the administration of someone who is willing to indulge in instinctive, impulsive outbursts… as seen at this weekend’s G7 meeting.
And by way of self-absorption we need to allow it has been a while since our last post. Yet that is because so much has been consistent with our view that Trump’s (and others’) sometimes shocking short-term impacts on markets have amounted to nothing more than temporary disruptions (indi-gestur-ion) our perspective has anticipated.
This goes back quite some time into the ‘consolidation consternation’ that began with the long-delayed yet sharp equities correction into early February. While this is not a broad condemnation of everyone in the Trump administration, as a case in point consider the resignation of ex-National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn.
While the recent Trump machinations on tariffs and trade may work out, let’s allow for the moment that Mr. Cohn probably has a broader and more effective understanding of that area than Donald Trump. After Trump’s surprise March 1st announcement of broad steel and aluminum tariffs, Cohn resigned the following Tuesday as Trump was still saying they would be fully applied 30 days later. As noted in our March 8th Commentary: Trump Trade Trauma?, Cohn’s departure had been predicted since Trump’s inadequate response to violence (including anti-Semitic overtones) in the Charlottesville rally last August. Yet the March 1st tariffs announcement seemed to be the last straw. Why?
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