2015/01/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, January 26, 2015 (early)
Syriza Wins!! That’s right, Greece has a new anti-austerity government. Yet that doesn’t seem to be a bad thing for the equities after initial overnight nervousness had them under pressure. And the govvies do not seem to like it. In fact, after previous rounds of Greek turmoil fed a significant premium ‘haven’ bid in the German Bund, the opposite seems to be the case this morning. Maybe the Bunds are getting the feeling that the new Greek government will be successful in either receiving some austerity concessions, or possibly outright debt forgiveness that will not be very good for the rest of the world’s overall view of Euro-zone debt.
The fresh concerns about Greece likely already contributed to the weakness of the euro into the later part of last week. Yet that was likely only accelerant for the ECB capping off a week we dubbed Central Bank-O-Rama. Certainly the major euro currency expansion by the ECB to expand its balance sheet was the major driver for the extension of the already severe weakness of the currency. That will also raise fears of inflation, however poorly founded based on all previous QE programs’ impact. Nonetheless, the Greek moves are going to elicit a storm of protest from the fiscally conservative forces in northern Europe, led by Germany of course. Yet for now the greater storm that might impact the markets is the atypically major blizzard headed into the US Northeast over the next couple of days.
And as far as the economic data, who cares? In the wake of these significantly forward looking central bank influences and the political situation in Europe not to mention turmoil in the Middle East, the ‘rearview mirror’ data is typically less important.
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the key factors noted above along with the continued mixed data out of Asia and Europe on global Advance PMI’s and other influences. Yet the prominence of the ‘macro’ factors leaves the data a bit less important, especially with less data today.
It moves on to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 06:15, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:30, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:30 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 18:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:45 and ASIA at 27:20, followed by the CROSS RATES at 30:50 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 35:15 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss some broader factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.