2015/03/27 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, March 27, 2015 (early)
As noted after Tuesday’s US equities failure, the “QE Life” indications on Fed accommodation along with the more aggressive QE programs in Germany and Japan were a prominent feature in last week’s mutual equities and govvies rally, it seems to not be supportive into the weak US data this week. Why might this be? The bottom line is that QE alone was never going to reinvigorate the major developed economies. As each of their central bankers have noted all along the way (more forcefully from the ECB and BoJ with less critical emphasis from the Fed), major economic and tax reform is also necessary. And further indications will be tested with today’s US GDP.
This ‘QE and accommodation can save the US (and by extension global) economy’ was popularized during the Ben Bernanke regime at the Fed. He seemed to relish ‘Fed as Hero’ sentiments during that period. And not doubt the Fed might have prevented a broader US and Global Depression with the initial QE back in 2009. However, the subsequent phases were far less clearly necessary from a crisis rescue standpoint. They degenerated into more of an economic stimulus plan in the face of the lack of political will to tackle the tough decisions necessary to implement reforms. That is equally true of other countries as well. All of that is reviewed in yesterday’s Global View TrendView video analysis and write-up, and we refer you back to that for more detail and links to previous Commentary.
Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted that while the data has been a bit more mixed of late (compared to previous serial weakness), Asian data this morning was quite weak again. It also notes that in addition to the US GDP we await the early Michigan Sentiment.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 01:30 and intermediate term at 04:15, with only mention of the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, GOVVIES at 07:50 and FOREIGN EXCHANGE at 08:30 with CROSS RATES basically steady prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 09:30 for a final look.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.