2015/06/30 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 (early)
‘Greeced’ Lightning. That’s what equity markets looked like on Monday’s serial sharp intraday selloffs... lightning bolts ratcheting down from the storm in short term bursts. Maybe that was not so surprising in the context of the multiple unknowns cascading into the markets yesterday. Seemingly recalcitrant positions of the EC/IMF/ECB Troika leaders were met with commensurate levels of resistance to agree to their Sunday ‘final’ offer by the Greek government. Compounding factors included the Greek government position that it was going to lobby for a NO vote in this weekend’s referendum on whether the Greek people would disagree and approve the Troika’s position. While the Greek government’s intractable resistance did not leave the Troika any room for compromise, a light at the end of tunnel emerged this morning.
That is in the form of a Troika offer to review the ‘sustainability’ of Greek debt if the Greeks will agree to the terms presented last Sunday. That will include a commitment from the Greek government to lobby for a YES vote in the referendum. Interesting. The ‘review the sustainability of Greek debt’ is of course code language for revisiting the idea that Greek debt is so overwhelming as to warrant forgiveness of some significant portion of it. It is almost an offer for the Greeks ‘they can’t afford to refuse’. The question for the Troika is…
“What took you so long?” The answer to that is also obvious: they could not make Greece an offer without putting them through significant turmoil as a way to deter other indebted peripheral countries from asking for a renegotiation of their debt. Yet the Greek situation being more extreme has been reviewed by us and others for some time now. Germany has found it easy to forget the major 1953 London Agreement debt forgiveness that allowed its economy to recover so well. (See our October 7, 2014 post for much more on that.)
Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is strong again along with US Housing. That includes an upward revision to UK GDP along with a stronger than expected Consumer Confidence in spite of German Retail Sales disappointment.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 01:45 and intermediate term view at 04:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 05:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 08:15 (with the BUND at 10:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 12:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 15:00, EUROPE at 16:45 and ASIA at 19:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 22:45 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 25:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.