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The Big ‘Dis…’

March 25, 2020 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2020/03/25 Commentary: The Big 'Dis…'

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COMMENTARY: Wednesday, March 25, 2020

US COVID-19 Cases Map Courtesy Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. All rights reserved.

In modern slang that term means ‘disrespect’. And there is certainly no small amount of that going around… most recently in the US Senate’s sharp partisan barbs that members threw at each other in a manner not seen for many years. That was based on highly divergent views on the phase 3 COVID-19 economic rescue legislation. Should it contain additional funding that goes way beyond the essential financial support to individuals and companies during the current social distancing economic shutdown? 

The rolling debate on that has belied all of the recent assertions that the rescue package is a ‘done deal’. Consider the announcements into early this morning that the Senate had passed its version of it which was such a fillip for the US equities and others. Yet here we are this afternoon listening to House Speaker Pelosi saying that in deference to their sensibilities, her members would get ‘at least’ a full 24 hours to review the legislation before being asked to vote on it. So no vote until Friday morning… maybe.

Wonderful, except for one factor: as recently revisited again, the old axiom remains, “The market is a creature of expectations.”  And the poor markets are having a hard time knowing what to expect in the context of these rapid ‘agony and ecstasy’ (apologies to Irving Stone) rescue effort reversals. That has fostered another ‘dis’… disorderly price activity in the context of how critical that government action is to any sense the US and other global economies are going to come through this in good order.

 

Legislative Lollygagging

While the Republicans are also guilty of their own legislative shenanigans at times, the Democratic ‘asks’ in the case of this hypercritical situation were a bit outrageous. As noted previous, Pelosi & Co. were demanding quite a few items that are far removed from getting emergency financial support to businesses and individuals. Even a partial list hints at no small amount of, in psychological terms, dissociative (there’s that ‘dis’ again) behavior... like a split personality.

‘Nice Nancy’ wants to ‘look out for the little’ in the face of another ‘corporate giveaway’. However ‘Hard Bargaining Nancy’ is willing to sacrifice the essential timely passage of the rescue package on the altar of what Senate Majority Leader McConnell has rightly characterized as a ‘liberal wishlist’. After counselling his troops on their objections to some spending items in the phase 1 rescue legislation “"...gag and vote for it anyway", he was faced with the following demands from the Democrats (just a partial list):

Eliminate the US Postal Service debt; wind and solar tax credits; impose emissions standards on aircraft manufacturers and airlines; extension of nonimmigrant visas; corporate board diversity quotas; same day voter registration; even major funding for The Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts… and it goes on and on from there. It seems they are following the advice of top Obama advisor Rahm Emanuel (from 2009), “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste” ...regarding the ability to use it to further a broad agenda. (That’s real: https://youtu.be/1yeA_kHHLow.)

Yet as we have noted previous, her and Senator Schumer should wake up to the fact that the ‘little guy’ (who will soon be in the bread line) doesn’t give a damn about any of that. They want to know they can pay for their next meal, and won’t appreciate it if the companies they work for go bankrupt waiting for the ‘more enlightened’ Democratic Party approved rescue package. Holding up funds flowing at this critical time in an attempt to ‘shoehorn’ in the Green New Deal they can’t get passed during normal times is not the little guy’s idea of support.

The latest House shenanigans are going to make for an interesting market psychology into the weekend. And not just for the US equities. There will be some influence into the global govvies and developed economy currencies. Yet the impact from any further stall in the legislation passing will likely be far more major for the already recently slammed emerging currencies.  

 

Disconsonant Dissembling Don

All of that said, it is also important to consider the ‘Disconsonant Dissembling’ (more ‘dis’) noted in last Friday’s research note. There are more than a few folks in government and the press who are guilty of ‘spinning’ their partisan view in a manner dissociated from the facts. However, the Trump administration’s attempt to paint everything in a favorable light leaves it less than effective in a way (as we noted two weeks ago) that has left an empty ‘well of confidence’.

This may seem inconsistent with Trump’s still relatively low approval rating rising through the course of the crisis. Yet that could be more so due to him taking a more presidential tone at the COVID-19 expert press conferences than any actual higher level of effective action. While we had already referred to his disconsonant dissembling in last Friday’s research, it is worth revisiting briefly to show it remains an issue on any truly effective address of the crisis in the US.

The Dissembler-in-Chief’s serial misstatements or outright falsehoods had already led to the emptying of the ‘well of confidence’ (March 12th research note on that.) The US government failure on the lack of COVID-19 testing kits has led to the message from Trump as recently as Thursday that, (paraphrased) “...if you have no symptoms, there is no need for you to get tested.”

In the context of the COVID-19 two-week ‘stealth’ (i.e. asymptomatic) contagion period… that’s crazy! An extensive Reuters article (https://reut.rs/3a2NyZh) referenced previous, reinforces the evidence that South Korea was far more well-prepared that the US to counter the COVID-19 spread. That was simply by identifying the necessity, and ramping up their COVID-19 tests production. They put their private pharmaceuticals companies on a ‘war’ footing (language Trump has belatedly adopted), and demanded massive COVID-19 test production for extensive testing; even of asymptomatic individuals.

By comparison the US lacked, an continues to lack, leadership on testing. Trump’s inability to allow a major problem was coming (not possible on his watch) versus seeming very demure and (falsely) assuring the American public that the government had it under control was a major failure.

Quite a bit of blame has been laid at the feet of a ‘bad’ old system for medical device approval. And that is true to some degree. Yet Trump came in as the ‘get it done’ kind of leader who could slash ‘red tape’. And in that regard his inability to shove the old rules aside to motivate the private pharmaceutical sector to solve the problem of a lack of test kits (as South Kores did) is a signature failure of his administration.

 

Still Averse to Testing?

This has led to the disconsonant dissembling that is cover for failure. Successful testing had allowed South Korea to close down selective areas of its economy. The alternative for the testing-deficient US is wholesale quarantine shutdown of much of the economy. It appears to us that a Trump who did not appreciate the severity of the situation and move timely to sweep away the red tape that prevented the US from ramping up test production must now maintain the party line that testing is not necessary for the asymptomatic.

While we will return to that shortly, first we’d like to share a very good COVID-19 resource: the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/) that has so much accurate and relevant information. Also note a link fairly near the top to the COVID-19 Interactive Map (the source for this post’s opening graphic.)

This is a great actively updating and easily manipulated graphical and statistical resource, which will provide the real story regardless of what the politicians are saying. Along with other features, clicking on specific countries on the left sidebar will provide ‘Confirmed’ cases and ‘Daily Increase’ graphs on the lower left… very interesting. (Check out the graphs on that for South Korea.)

Getting back to Trump’s rear-end-covering aversion to testing even at this critical time, the sheer cost of the major US ‘social distancing’ shutdown has now caused him to develop a new fixation: reopening the economy as soon as possible to mitigate the cost. This means by possibly as soon as Easter Sunday on April 12th. That’s just 18 days from today, even as the virus is obviously still spreading into new areas.

 Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.

 

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What Price?

March 19, 2020 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2020/03/19 Commentary: What Price?

© 2020 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: Thursday, March 19, 2020

'Blonde on Blonde' album cover ©1966 courtesy of BobDylan.com

To state the obvious, the markets’ trading volatility (wild short-term swings) has been part of broader trend volatility on the major overall price moves. This has not only been the case on the major overall weakness of the US EQUITIES (and others) and EMERGING CURRENCIES, yet now also extreme swings in the fiscal concern-impacted GLOBAL GOVVIES as well.

It seems the US government and its minions were as unprepared to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak as they were to fathom the full dimensions and impact of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. It reminds us of the line from the old Bob Dylan tune ‘Stuck Inside of Mobile with the Memphis Blues Again’ (©1966 Bob Dylan, 'Blonde on Blonde'),  “An’ here I sit so patiently, Waiting to find out what price, You have to pay to get out of, Going through all these things twice.”

2008-2009 (in fact from 2006 onward) was a substantial US government monitoring failure, and here we are again (more below.)

We distributed our daily research notes earlier than usual this morning after due to most regularly scheduled data already being out this week. The Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan also held rates steady this morning, even if the latter increased its market intervention. Those are after the US FOMC had cancelled its Wednesday meeting and announcement after two major emergency rate cuts in the past two weeks dropped its base rate to the 0.00%-0.25% range.

As all of that news is in the markets (only pending the Peoples Bank of China announcement on Friday), it is back to the good news and bad news on the markets… mostly bad. Our Thursday reference to the old Stealers Wheel song ‘Stuck in the Middle with You’ no longer applies to US EQUITIES that have failed below key historic support (more below.)

The JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE (front month as of Friday) was already trading at a 12 point discount to the March contract, and both are below the December 2018 2,413-09 UP Closing Price Reversal signal we have heavily referenced in recent analysis.

This means that the higher 2,600 fresh major weekly channel (from the January 2016 lows) DOWN Break will hold sway over the future trend activity. While there are some interim lower supports, the trend will likely continue lower.

This is reasonable in the context of the US government failure to effectively assess the spread of COVID-19, with little ability to do so without an effective testing mechanism. There was a great, very extensive Reuters article (https://reut.rs/3a2NyZh) on Thursday about how South Korea was much more prepared in any event, and how the US lacked the leadership on testing.

It is indeed a good question of ‘what price’ would have needed to be paid to avoid the current worst case scenario. The least of it would have been the US government allowing much sooner that COVID-19 was bad and getting worse here and elsewhere instead of demurring on any aggressive response.

So what’s the ‘good news’?

 

 

Read more...

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WEEKEND READ: COVID-19 Still Dominant

March 7, 2020 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2020/03/07: WEEKEND READ: COVID-19 Still Dominant

© 2020 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

WEEKEND READ: Saturday, March 7, 2020

Everybody can get excited. Market participants are especially prone to being excitable. That was evident on recent sharp US equities rallies that ended with immediate reversion to the aggressive bear trend. This reinforces the dominance of the COVID-19 virus spread psychology in all asset classes.

After a week that saw some other seemingly important central bank and political influences, the COVID-19 virus spread in the US obviously remains the major US equities trend driver. Tuesday first saw anticipation and then the fact of the FOMC emergency 50 basis point rate cut, and then the surprise 'Super Tuesday' surge in ex-VP Biden's prospects as the likely Democratic Party candidate for President in November.   

Tuesday's sharp rally on the FOMC emergency rate cut saw knee-jerk buying driving US EQUITIES temporarily above resistance. Yet almost immediately afterward, they fell back sharply to the important lower support (more on all that below.) Wednesday saw the Biden electoral surge matched by temporary market euphoria, yet also reverting to a major selloff to the lower support by Thursday (as anticipated in Wednesday morning’s “‘Super Joe’, COVID Hope, FOMC Joke” research note.)

Thursday morning’s “C’mon in and Ride the Whip” research note was a very in-depth historic discussion of the why’s and how’s of extreme volatility from even before there were any financial futures. [We have added a repeat of that below. ]

The bottom line is Biden’s success in blunting the potential for a Socialist candidate for US President is not going to mean anything to the near-term impact of the COVID-19 outbreak spreading across the US.

Surprising to some Fed fans is the FOMC surprise rate cut is also a non-factor. For more on that please see Friday morning’s Reuters article (https://reut.rs/3aE8ANP) that highlights the extensive criticism of both the recent and any future cuts as a cure for the economy being battered by the COVID-19 spread.

The bottom line is that nobody feels any better about resuming normal activity just because base rates are lower; especially when the longer dated govvies are already at record lows.

And the proof on display in the markets is the return of US EQUITIES aggressive downward momentum despite the Biden surge and FOMC 50 basis point cut (which we immediately deemed nothing more than a joke.) The COVID-19 driver for that along with other global developments can be reviewed in another Friday morning Reuters article (https://reut.rs/2ww1jAK) articulating the extent of the spread.  

Along with that GLOBAL GOVVIES are continuing their price surge (i.e. collapsing yields) with pressure on EMERGING CURRENCIES. Of note after its ‘haven’ bid as recently as two weeks ago, the US DOLLAR INDEX is under pressure on other DEVELOPED CURRENCIES surging against it (including the recently depressed JAPANESE YEN.)

While the volatility there is also historically extreme, it is not a surprise now that COVID-19 is spreading in the previously ‘safe’ United States.

In deference to the crisis remaining in full bloom and the broader investment and trading communities need to know, we have made the Extended Trend Assessment and full Evolutionary Trend View open source for just this post...

Read more...

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2019/11/10 Commentary: Santa Already in Town

November 10, 2019 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2019/11/10 Commentary: ‘Santa’ already in town (redux)

© 2019 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY: WEEKEND: November 10, 2019

‘Santa’ already in town (redux)

But is it Mr. Claus or someone else?

This year is a bit different than the end of last year (more so like 2017) in the context of just how upbeat the US equities performance has become into late year. Despite the overhang from the continuing US-China differences, it has been injected with steroids on the sense that those talks are continuing.

At the very least, any near term agreement will lead to the cancellation of the US tariffs increase that was supposed to be implemented into mid-December. The question over whether any 'Phase I' agreement amounts to nothing more than Donald Trump's need to 'declare victory and go home' remains (see Thursday's 'The Bank Overshadowed by US-China News' emailed research note for more.)

That this seems a bit more likely in the face of other pressures on Trump is moot in the near-term. The sight of him and Chinese President Xi signing any agreement will encourage thoughts of broader rapprochement to come; regardless of how far apart the two sides may remain on the more substantive critical issues.

However, US equities extended their rally into the end of last week despite first the Trump administration, and then the man himself, refuting Chinese claims that a broad tariffs rollback agreement had been agreed. So what could possibly be so influential as to overshadow the idea there are still stumbling blocks on the way to even the limited Phase I agreement? Well, in the context of the overall US equities strength finally extending late this year after stalling repeatedly against topping indications since July (see any recent research notes for more on that), there could already be a strong seasonal factor influencing the Evolutionary Trend View

The general psychology remains the same as any other strong year insofar as our long-standing views on the ‘Santa’ influence in the markets remains as always, yet based on something more than a jolly old guy in a red suit. In 2017 US tax reform certainly provided a plethora of blessings for US equities from multiple factors on the outlook into 2018. Of course, as the market is a ‘creature of expectations’, that is now being strongly reflected this year.

Whether or not the anticipated greater rapprochement between the US and China occurs, the anticipation that at least things are not going to become more acrimonious again in the near term can drive the US equities psychology. And that should then be accentuated by the need for under-invested individuals and especially portfolio managers to purchase equities on any setback (more below.)

While that leaves a 'hostage to fortune' in any return of overt US-China hostility, there is now quite a bit of substantial lower support in the US equities. As such, any fresh US-China confrontation would also need to be substantial to upset markets enough to drop US equities back below that now meaningful lower support; which is not really expected, at least not at this juncture.

Yet in the final analysis of the sheer equities trend, it is all very impressive and reinforces the natural tendency of ‘Santa Portfolio Manager’ to benefit others by needing to apply any excess cash to purchases of well-regarded stocks in positive equities years. 

Now we just need to see how the markets respond to the idea that there may be a revival of coordinated global economic strength if indeed there is a broader US-China rapprochement (which still seems quite far off in the distance.) Yet for now that anticipation (along with just a bit better European and Chinese economic data) has also weighed on global govvies and inspired an overall bid in emerging currencies (even if the latter faded a bit late last week despite US equities strength.)

The bigger foreign exchange question is why seemingly constructive Brexit developments along with the better global economic anticipation have not helped the euro or the British pound. Each of them has dropped back down to key lower support areas, which has brought some surprising strength to the previously weak US Dollar Index.

Yet none of that is going to derail the Santa Claus rally in the near-term. This can only occur in the (as noted above) unlikely event of a return of significant US-China acrimony.

▪ Based on this year’s extensive bullish anticipation, it is obvious that Santa is already in town. While he tends to increase his influence from Thanksgiving into the middle of December, he seems to be starting early this year on the positive US-China inferences noted above. As such, in spite of any setbacks it is likely the US equities will maintain their overall up trend into this month by holding setbacks, like the one they recently experienced on concerns over the Fed's less accommodative guidance (yet which was so short-lived.)

We suspect any December S&P 500 future downside reaction from higher Oscillator resistance will either hold into the lower 3,065-70 Oscillator threshold it overran last week, or at worst ratchet down to no worse than heavier support around that old July 3,030 area all-time high (with a Tolerance into the 3,025-15 range that was seen during the post FOMC sharp reaction.)

As this tendency goes back through many years of our late year seasonal analysis, we are very comfortable repeating our assessment from years gone by… [Original version posted Monday, December 23, 2013]

One of the key aspects which many market participants expect to be critical at this time of year is whether or not there will be a classical ‘Santa Claus’ equity market rally into the end of the year. And we say there is a certain element of humbug inherent in any such assumption.

Even as a Very Merry disposition is apparent in the recent major extension of the equities rally reinvigorated by the better prospects for US tax reform, the question remains “Who is this capitalistic, market profit-oriented ‘Santa’?” Of course, there is a question of whether anyone really believes Santa Claus exists in a market context in the first place, regardless of their personal life desire to believe or not.

In fact, the idea there is a Santa Claus which visits the broad market indices in December is at least a bit of a misnomer. In truth, as we have noted each year, any benefits to the broader market into December is more so due to ‘Santa Portfolio Manager’, and whether he decides to provide joy from his cash hoard to the other market participants.

And his tendencies in that regard are self-serving rather than altruistic. He must assess whether it looks smarter to be holding cash or holding stocks. And that in turn has to do with the position of the market indices relative to their highs or lows of the year. The further below their highs of the year (or indeed closer to their lows) the stock indices are trading into December, the less inclined that ‘Santa’ is to provide gifts to the other participants in the form of further purchases. Sort of a “Scrooge’s Scrooge” in those sorts of already trying times.

However, the closer the indices are to their highs of the year, the more so Santa Portfolio Manager is inclined to provide cash to the market so that he is fully invested at the calendar year-end… regardless of whether his overall returns for the year have been  spectacular or second-rate.

To wit (and to the tune of Santa Claus is Coming to Town)…

Verse:

He buys them when they’re lower,

He buys them when they’re high.

Can’t have any cash on the books

When New Year’s Day is nigh.

Refrain:

No need to pout,

No need to cry.

He’ll only shout,

“Buy, Buy, Buy.”

Santa Portfolio Manager’s

Coming to town.

▪ All previous analysis from the Market Observations (lower section, available to all Gold and Platinum subscribers) in our Weekend: Oddities and Anomalies? post that were updated after last Tuesday’s US Close remain the operative Evolutionary Trend View, except as updated in recent emailed notes. The next full Commentary will be posted once we have the final details of the US government budget deal that must be struck by the end of this week.

Thanks for your interest.

Rohr Market Research

2018/07/04 Commentary: Independence Day Paradigm Shift

July 4, 2018 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2018/07/04 Commentary: Independence Day Paradigm Shift

© 2018 ROHR International, Inc. All International Rights Reserved.E

Commentary: Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Independence Day Paradigm Shift

First of all, Happy Independence Day to our United States subscribers. We hope they will all be enjoying their annual celebratory fireworks displays, much like the fiery half of the yin-yang display in our opening graphic. While it is likely lost on some folks in this age where liberal democracy has become more of a global norm, the original American Experiment was also an explosion of the highest extension of Age of Enlightenment political philosophy. The idea that the government would hold power only by the assent of the governed was an explosive concept at the time. It flew in the face of most previous forms of government (outside of limited periods in ancient Greece and Rome) that had been based on some sort of divinely designated top-down monarchical rule.

It was given little chance of success by many contemporary observers, especially those with a vested interest in monarchy as the only right form of government. Yet here we are 242 years later, celebrating the ‘great experiment’ which gradually changed the global thinking on government away from absolute monarchy. And while fireworks have been used for many centuries going back their invention in ancient China, they have a special meaning for the United States. Its national anthem was inspired in part by Francis Scott Key’s awe at the sight of the British fleet’s new Congreve rockets (named for inventor William Congreve) during the naval assault on Fort McHenry during the War of 1812. 

While being held on a British ship south of the fort overnight on September 13, 1814, the rockets and other ordinance illuminating the American flag above the fort inspired Key to pen the poem ‘Defense of Fort McHenry’. That was of course later to be changed to ‘The Star Spangled Banner’, and be set to the music from a British drinking society song ‘To Anacreon who Art in Heaven’. Respect and thanks is due to our British clients and friends. The Americans are triply indebted to the British for having developed the bicameral parliamentary form of government the new country used, bringing the Congreve rockets to attack Fort McHenry, and providing a drinking song as the melody of the US national anthem (not officially recognized as such until 1931!) Somehow it all seems so fitting.

[Opening graphic via wallhere.com. © 2018 All Rights Reserved.]

▪ All of that history is interesting, yet merely scratches the surface of the full story of the defense of Fort McHenry (also now an oft-visited US historic site.) For any history buffs interested in the full story of both the sea and land defense of the fort in 1814, we suggest visiting the very good ThoughtCo learning site review of the events leading up to and during the battle as well as its aftermath at http://bit.ly/2O5S1Uq.

Our Less Prominent Paradigm Shift

Among the more useful shifts we have provided during the very complex politico-economic evolution in the wake of the 2008-2009 Crisis was our evolution into extensive, in-depth commentaries as blog posts. This was from roughly ten years ago, initially at the open WordPress blog (www.rohrintlblog.wordpress.com) that evolved in into the more extensive blog observations you have been reading since mid-2011.

Yet as the old cliché says, “Necessity is the mother of invention.” And we have found that the current more intensive market and politico-economic environment is better suited to our previous concise daily politico-economic updates with active Evolutionary Trend View market development adjustments. Those are both evolving so quickly in the Age of Trump (as well as other radical factors) that a concise daily commentary is more effective.

It is also the case that our recent ISP issues forcing us to publish daily brief updates has also been very well received. In addition to the rapid-fire changes in the fundamental factors best reviewed in real time, our readers have expressed a renewed preference for easy reading concise serial analysis of the evolving politico-economic influences. While this is in some ways a throwback to the previous style, it is also productive at this time.

Mother of Invention Redux

So our ISP problems seem to indeed be the ‘necessity’ which is the ‘mother of the reinvention’ of the Rohr Report politico-economic and price trend analysis. That includes your request that we stick with the daily serial update notes that still include the market assessment extension. This is our hot ‘yang’ extensive yet more selective major Rohr-Blog posts evolving back into the cool ‘yin’ of concise daily updates.

These can be referenced in light of each other; it will still be an in-depth analysis, yet spread out across serial emails of a daily ‘Rohr-Blog research note’. As we have already been relying on the emailed version of our analysis for the past several weeks of ISP issues, we are confident this will suit the many of you who already requested further pursuit of that format; and look forward to further feedback and suggestions.

Thanks for your interest in the more extensive observations previous. We look forward to serving your interests in our new, more direct and concise format.

Rohr Market Research
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