2014/07/31: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, July 31, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
In spite of the Ukraine-Russia problems and geopolitical disruption elsewhere, the equities managed to push up for most of last week and were even able to rebound on Monday. It illustrates the degree to which equity market participants have possibly still not taken the potential risks inherent in multiple unstable geopolitical developments quite as seriously as they should. That came home to roost Tuesday in the form of the US announcement of greater sanctions on Russia. These were more extensive than expected from what had been a very lax approach previous, and carries the risk of a backlash of economic pressure on the still weak European economy. And that is now abetted by the renewed Argentine debt default for the second time in twelve years.
While it would be nice to have a more definitive single driver for the equities weakness, we have been skeptical for a while because of a general sense things are weakening globally. For the first time since the late 1970’s (which we suppose the majority of current market participants did not live through) there is a sense of politico-economic (to borrow a physics concept) ‘entropy’. That is the lack of enough energy to structure a given system, which leads to it becoming more chaotic. It also carries the social connotation of decline or degeneration. As we have already discussed this at length in previous posts, suffice to say for now that the Obama administration not applying sufficient focus and credible actions in foreign policy is leaving the world a more chaotic place. And that may be affecting overall confidence, including that of the future path of corporate earnings.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above and the continued weak data out of both Asia and Europe today (other than Euro-zone Unemployment) after Thursday’s much stronger than expected first look at US Q2 GDP. Yesterday afternoon’s FOMC statement remained as accommodative as we suspected, as Chair Yellen was not going to let anything to hawkish come out in a pure statement with no press conference. It also notes a weak Challenger Job Cuts indication was the only remaining end of month data prior to the US Weekly Jobless Claims and Chicago PMI.
It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:30, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:15, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:35 and June Eurodollar future only in the SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:15, jumping over to EUROPE at 20:15 and ASIA at 22:45, followed the CROSS RATES at 26:00 (with an expanded EUR/GBP weekly chart to review the critical nature of .8000-.7950 support Tolerance at .7923), and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 30:30 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/08/01: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/08/01: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, August 1, 2014 (early)
Well, well, well. How quickly they forget. All of that overly sanguine reliance on central bank accommodation as a key factor in supporting the equities and the associated dismissive mentality on the various vexing global politico-economic developments seemed to reverse in the proverbial heartbeat overnight Wednesday into yesterday morning’s US equities Regular Trading Hours (RTH) opening. How could this be? In the first instance, in spite of there indeed being some real issues with the real state of the US labor situation (i.e. likely weaker than some of the headline data would suggest), Thursday morning’s Labor Cost Index showing greater costs than expected was interpreted to mean more pressure on the Fed to hike sooner than expected. And that was in spite of the FOMC saying the opposite in Wednesday afternoon’s statement. This would imply many folks feel the Fed is not being honest in an attempt to not upset the markets with any overt indication it is indeed feeling more pressure to raise rates. Yet the markets (govvies as well as equities) are obviously capable of drawing their own conclusions.
And the other obvious factor is the Ukraine-Russia problems and geopolitical disruption elsewhere finally having an effect. That potential drag on a still weak European economcy may actually be the greater influence on things moving so quickly from a ‘bad news is good news’ mentality not just to a ‘bad news is bad news’ psych, but also what now appears to be a full blown shift from ‘risk on’ to ‘risk off’. Not much else can readily explain how September S&P 500 future that had overrun the 1,938 Objective of its late May Runaway Gap to the upside back in mid-June not only reacted right back down to it on yesterday’s early violation of 1,955-50 support, but also slipped below and could not recover back above it on a weak lunchtime recovery yesterday. It speaks volumes about a real psychological sea change. Why would that be, and what do we look for next?
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above and the continued weak data out of both Europe (like this morning’s Manufacturing PMIs.) It also notes that in addition to this morning’s US Employment report we will see Personal Income and Spending, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending, none of which will be very trend decisive in the current environment.
It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:50 and intermediate term at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:45, GOVVIES at 13:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 18:30. There is only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE from 21:00, as that is all still completely consistent with the analysis in yesterday’s Global View TrendView Video as is the CROSS RATES analysis. It returns to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 22:00 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...