2014/08/28 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, August 28, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
Even as the KC Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium turned out to be the ‘Accommodation Fest’ we had anticipated (note equity markets rally on weakish data), the geopolitical has reared its ugly head once again with negative effect. The question is just how much. At the time of our video recording the September S&P 500 future had slipped by six dollars. While that might sound like trouble, in fact it only took it back down to the area of last Friday’s minor up channel DOWN Break in the 1,990 area, with a buffer to the more major up channel support (from the last sharp reaction’s 1,900 area low) in the 1,987 area (see chart.)
So what does it all mean into the next look at US Q2 GDP and other data this morning? Simply stated, the markets are still prone to being upset by the geopolitical influences that are likely to provide some surprises. For Europe it is not just a matter of ‘rearview mirror’ economic data already being weak. It is also the degree to which the geopolitical impact weakening confidence further into a near deflationary European environment is a significant factor that can and will show up in the real world. Will the Euro-zone or Europe at large actually drop into a deflationary spiral? That’s impossible to answer, and may well NOT occur. However, the more tangible threat of that possibility (along with the renewed weakness in Japan in spite of all the Abenomics efforts) is driving the government bond market psychology for now… and will likely do so at least until the Ukraine-Russia imbroglio is settled on a sustainably constructive basis.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above plus the weakish data yesterday into this morning from Asia and Europe (even if UK CBI Sales were strong.) It also mentions the important US economic data today includes that second look at Q2 GDP and the KC Fed Manufacturing Index among other items.
It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:30, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:00, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 09:10 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 21:45 and ASIA at 25:30, followed the CROSS RATES at 28:50 and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 32:40 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/08/29 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/08/29 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, August 29, 2014 (early)
Invasion or no invasion? That is the question. As we note in the early phase of our analysis, any confusion as to whether Russia has ‘invaded’ Ukraine is moot. There are definitely Russian troops across the border, as Master Dissembler Putin is keeping on the pressure without needing to do anything quite so bold as invade. He is merely keeping his options open (and domestic popularity rating high) by maintaining the destabilization of eastern Ukraine to the degree necessary to exercise control.
Of course, this is all over the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the West on Russia being a reprobate throwback to the 19th century. Yet they are also not doing much else about it. Europe’s commercial ties to Russia (including that critical dependence on natural gas supplies) and the US aversion to any involvement anywhere (beyond the rhetorical and sanction pressure) means Putin can proceed as he’s planned. It is important to keep in mind that he doesn’t want to ‘own’ the Ukraine and its Brobdingnagian debts, he merely wants to control it; both the resources in its east, and preventing NATO membership.
Why is all this important to the markets? Because it will be a drag on the already weak Euro-zone economy for one. And that plays right into the other factor that is a key right now: the equities return to a ‘bad news is good news’ psychology on recent central bank indications (even in spite of the slight shift toward center by Janet Yellen.) Anyone who doesn’t understand that shift is possibly in need of psychiatric care. While yesterday’s second look at US GDP was a bit stronger than expected, all of the overnight data elsewhere was somewhere between weak and abysmal. And yet, US equities are up in spite of even US Personal Spending coming in negative versus a positive expectation.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some all the weak recent data in spite of Thursday’s stronger than expected Q2 GDP. However, even the KC Fed Manufacturing Index was weak, and almost all other important end of month economic data this morning from Asia and Europe was weak; and some cases very weak. It also mentions that we will be in on Monday in spite of the US Labor Day Holiday.
It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 03:30 and intermediate term at 06:37, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:10 and GOVVIES at 12:00 with SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 17:20. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:00 only mention of the other currencies that are mostly steady as well (except for a bit more weakness in the fundamentally challenged Japanese yen) along with the cross rates, returning to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 21:40 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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