2014/09/09 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, September 9, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
As we noted last Thursday, there is nothing like peace breaking out to encourage the equities… and weigh on the govvies. While there is weak data out of Asia again, in the current ‘bad news is good news’ central bank accommodation environment that should not really weigh on the equities too heavily. And in spite of the somewhat better UK economic data this morning, that shouldn’t be enough to weigh on govvies as much as we are seeing this morning if it was not for more confidence that the geopolitical scene is calming down.
That said, we expected govvies to weaken a bit further in Europe after yesterday’s September Bund future expiration. The deeply discounted December Bund future had not yet tested the weekly continuation support back into the 148.50-.00, with secondary support as low as the 147.00 area. Equities being off only modestly so far today is also a sign the central bank accommodation remains a driver for the psychology there when the economic data is weak.
Yet all of that gets us to a more important topic regarding the far more volatile trend of late, which has obviously been in foreign exchange. There are a couple of general market clichés that we never buy into, and those have been refuted once again by the recent US dollar strength and weakness elsewhere. While the greenback might be reaching a far more formidable resistance than seen in some time, it is worth reviewing a couple of psychological aspects of what transpired along the way.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above, and the degree to which much of this week is in a somewhat typical post-US Employment report ‘data vacuum’ until we get out to more critical influences again on Friday. It will remain more ad hoc and geopolitical until then. It also notes the minor US data today consists of only NFIB Small Business Confidence and the JOLTS Job Openings survey.
It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:50, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:10, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:40. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 23:30 and ASIA at 28:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 30:30 and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 34:40 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/09/10 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/09/10 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, September 10, 2014 (early)
As noted last Thursday and revisited yesterday, there is nothing like peace breaking out to encourage the equities… and weigh on the govvies. Yet will any near term détente between the Ukraine and Russia make any difference to the overall trends, or are we possibly dealing with a bit of ‘accommodation anticipation’ once again as markets react to Mario Draghi’s ECB surprise rate cut decision and the anticipated further accommodation from the BoJ? The European and Asian equity markets are surely acting like ‘bad news is good news’ again, as is obvious from the resilient response to recent serial weak data. And the equivalent activity in foreign exchange is also more obvious out of yesterday into today as well.
So what might all this mean to the other markets? Well, for one thing we will get more geopolitical influence out of US President Obama’s foreign policy address this evening. That is promoted as substantially about how the US and its allies (which has become a much more diverse crew than previous) are going to counter the threat posed by Isis’ activities in Iraq, and possibly if they will also pursue the radical Islamic group into Syria. Yet the more significant point beyond any specific plan is whether the US President is finally in touch with the fully diabolical implications of his previous aloof, pacifist approach to foreign exchange allowing pernicious players to dominate situations on so many fronts.
And in the meantime, September S&P 500 future found reason to soften below the key 1,990-88 support we have highlighted for the past couple of weeks. Along the way that became the ‘Neckline’ of a Head & Shoulders Top that now leaves it on a nominal DOWN Break. Is this really the beginning of the next significant correction? Or is it just another false down signal in a market that’s seen so many? More on that below with an in depth discussion in the video.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the weak data of the past couple of days that was offset to some degree by better than expected Chinese and German Trade figures Monday and UK data on Tuesday. Yet this morning’s Asian data has gone weak again along with the US MBA Mortgage Applications as we await only US Wholesale Trade and Inventories.
It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 01:45 and intermediate term at 05:15, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:50 and GOVVIES at 11:15, with only mention of the very steady SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 17:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:50 with mention of EUROPE that is mostly steady as well at 19:40 prior to analysis of the very active ASIA at 20:30 along with the only EUR/AUD on the cross rates at 24:15 prior to returning to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 25:30 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...