2014/09/17 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, September 17, 2014 (early)

Concise Highlights  

As we inquired yesterday, might it be possible we are entering another ‘bad news is bad news’ environment for the equities? That prospect was reinforced yesterday by a comment from a well-regarded Fed-watcher at the Wall Street Journal who suggested the Street had gotten itself too wound up over the prospect of the FOMC removing accommodative language (in fact a particular phrase) in today’s announcement; which Janet Yellen would then back up at her post-rate (non)decision press conference.

It does seem amazing that so much rests with whether the Fed leaves the phrase “…likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” intact, or evolves into something a bit less accommodative. Yet that seems to be the crux of the matter; at least until Chair Yellen puts her quite possibly still accommodative spin on it at the press conference. _____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above. It also noted the generally weak data this week outside of Monday’s US Empire Manufacturing Index. That continued with weak Chinese data gain this morning, yet offset substantially by a major PBoC cash infusion into their major banks. Bank of England meeting minutes came in as expected, and UK Employment was a bit firmer than expected as we await what are likely to be the less than consequential US CPI and NAHB Housing Market Index in front of the FOMC this afternoon.

It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 06:00, with OTHER EQUITIES only discussed from 08:30, GOVVIES and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 09:00 and FOREIGN EXCHANGE from 09:45 prior to returning to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 10:45 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/09/16 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, September 16, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

Is it possible we are entering a ‘bad news is bad news’ environment for the equities? We feel the dread may be a bit overdone on the expectations the FOMC will take further steps toward less accommodation and prepare the ground ultimately for rate hikes into next year. Yet, the US equities are going to be hard pressed to develop a rationale to rally on bad news if that is what we get from Wednesday’s FOMC projections and press conference. Even in light of further accommodation in Europe and Japan, the US psychology will likely exert a strong influence on the other equities.

For one thing, the Japanese situation in the wake of the April 1^st consumption tax hikes remains exceedingly weak. This is not a matter of encouraging an economy that is on the mend with further accommodation. Every bit of it will likely be necessary to prevent Japan from falling back into recession. And in Europe the ECB is still stuck that lack of a consolidated capital structure that will allow the sort of aggressive government bond buying that has been the style of the Fed, BoJ and even the BoE for a while. The question is not whether the ECB would now like to pursue such a path, but rather how long it might take to formulate and implement its Asset Backed Securities approach to it. Even after the commitment at the last meeting to moving forward ‘more aggressively’, the ECB QE plan will still take months to implement. And long the way we still see very weak data for the most part out of Asia and Europe, and even the US to some degree.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. There was also explicit focus on the weakness of both German and Euro-zone ZEW Surveys and especially the major disappointment in the second consecutive weak month for Chinese Foreign Direct Investment. That said, the major focus is on Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and press conference, and the Scottish Independence referendum out of Thursday into Friday.

It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 06:00, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:45 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 20:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 24:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 25:50 and ASIA at 29:50, followed by the CROSS RATES at 33:30 and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 36:10 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/09/12 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, September 12, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

As we noted last Thursday, there is nothing like peace breaking out to encourage the equities… and weigh on the govvies. While there is better data out of Asia and Europe for a change, in the central bank accommodation environment that has not really weigh on the equities too heavily. And the latest European sanctions on Russia have not brought too aggressive a response from the East. While counter-sanctions have been threatened, there has been no return to overt military moves some had feared.

We still feel that Russia’s threats to dial back natural gas supplies to an already weak Europe (with Poland already complaining it is seeing a bit of that) represent more of a threat than many currently allow to any attempt to revive the still sluggish European economy. While Russia’s move is ostensibly to prevent reselling of gas supplies to the Ukraine, the idea Russia can limit gas supplies to Europe to their bare requirements should give the equities pause. However, on recent form it takes the actual event of any upsetting factor to cause any sustained selloff in the equities.

And that is consistent with the technical trend evolution of the September S&P 500 future we have noted since Tuesday. As we revisit in the video, all other equities seem to be churning a bit as they await the decision out of the US, yet have been neither nearly as weak nor nearly in as critical a technical condition as the September S&P 500 future as we head into the end of the week. And the analysis of other asset classes remains quite the same as well.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. There was also yesterday morning’s surprisingly strong Australian Employment figures, and weakish Chinese financial data. After US Weekly Jobless Claims were much worse than expected yesterday, the real next shoes to fall are this morning’s US Retail Sales and Michigan Sentiment along with other lesser numbers.

It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 06:00, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:15, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:30 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:50. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:50, jumping over to EUROPE at 20:00 and ASIA at 23:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:40 and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 29:30 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/09/11 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, September 11, 2014 (early)

Concise Highlights   As almost all of the market tendencies are very much the same as noted in Wednesday’s Concise Highlights and Tuesday’s Global View TrendView video analyses, we are only covering the technical trend evolution of the September S&P 500 future today. As we note in the video, all other equities are off a bit, yet neither nearly as weak nor nearly in as critical a technical condition as the September S&P 500 future as we head into the later part of this week. And the analysis of other asset classes remains quite the same as well.

Govvies are up a bit after both the Gilt future and Bund future held important lower supports, even if the slightly higher activity in the September T-note future still leaves it below the 125-16 failure area. Short Money Forwards have also held into support and are up marginally today. And the US Dollar Index, euro and British pound are all churning just a bit after having hit important technical levels on the weakness of Europe of late. The only follow through on existing trends in that area now is the continued weakness of the Australian dollar and Japanese yen.

And that’s it for today as we await the return to more important Asian, European and US economic data tomorrow.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above. There was also a lack of any decisive overseas data this morning, except for the strength of Australian Employment figures. The US Weekly Jobless Claims were much worse than expected, but the real next shoes to fall are the important Japanese and Euro-zone Industrial Production numbers on Friday, along with US Retail Sales and Michigan Sentiment.

It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:40, with all other markets only discussed from 06:50 onward prior to returning to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 08:15 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you. _____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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