2014/09/30 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, September 30, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
As we noted in Monday’s Commentary: External Factors Weigh on US Equities, “Europe is a basket case that is not getting any help from a hamstrung ECB. Asia remains mostly weak as well along with emerging markets.” While some of the overseas economic data this morning was a bit better than expected (especially regarding both German Retail Sales and employment) the drags from outside the US remain. And that is now compounded by a natural cooling of the US home sales outlook after such significant price rises. After Monday’s weaker than expected US Pending Home Sales we will see more on that with the Case/Shiller Home Price indications today. That’s along with the typical end of month Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence.
Yet, as always, the bigger influences are pending this week on all the early month data and other influences from Wednesday onward. That culminates in US Employment Friday, with the ECB meeting and press conference on Thursday… but no BoE meeting and statement this week, with its typical deferral into next week on these partial first week of the month calendars. Of course, all of the global Manufacturing (Wednesday) and Services (Friday) PMI’s will also be watched closely into that US Employment number Friday.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of most of the factors noted above. It also mentions the mixed data includes a weaker than expected 50.20 Chinese Manufacturing PMI (est. 50.50) and very weak indication on Japanese Household Spending and Industrial Production. It also notes that Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrations are cooling down a bit into its Wednesday-Thursday holiday.
It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:20, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:15, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 09:30 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 13:10. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:50, jumping over to EUROPE at 20:00 and ASIA at 23:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:15 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 30:15 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/10/01: Commentary: Fed Follies and FX Finesse
Commentary: Fed Follies and FX Finesse
Internal Fed disruptions are being
impacted by foreign exchange shifts
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COMMENTARY: Wednesday, October 1, 2014
As noted previous, this is a sign the govvies know any early rate hike would be bad for a still troubled global economy. And since Thursday more dovish Fed officials have countered what Fisher had to say, especially dovish Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Chicago on Monday. Also interviewed Monday morning on CNBC, Mr. Evans said any removal of highly accommodative policy should “…err on the side of patience…” So what’s going on here? And how does it relate to real world conditions and those core government bond market trends?
[Tuesday’s Global View TrendView video on all the asset classes remains the relevant perspective and technical trend assessment for all markets in the wake of price movements Tuesday into this morning.]
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the Commentary and Conclusion. Silver and Sterling Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the Commentary discussion.
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