2014/10/14 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, October 14, 2014 (early)
Concise Highlights
While we continue to note Mario Draghi’s battle with the fiscally parsimonious factions in northern Europe (especially the conservative portion of the German political class) over the ECB’s right to pursue that broader monetary expansion program, it seems that the broader geo-political forces are the more prominent market factors for now. It is the major disconnect between US administration rhetoric and the ‘facts on the ground’ which are disturbing to the equities, and have bolstered the govvies.
Almost everyone outside of the fiscally conservative Germans (some would say ‘overly conservative’) agrees that Europe needs the additional stimulus. And as we noted in last our previous Commentary: Will a European recession spill over? (…as in ‘to the rest of the world’), Germany seems to have forgotten the debt forgiveness lesson from its own 1953 renegotiation of both pre- and post-World War Two indebtedness. That will continue to be a key factor in the intermediate term.
Yet the degree to which Isis has made further critical advances in the face of the US administration’s ‘air power only’ campaign (i.e. “no boots on the ground”) is more than mildly disconcerting. Especially the way the aggressive attack on Syrian-Turkish border town Kobani has set the US and Turkey against each other appears to be cleverer than the radical Islamist ‘junior varsity’ is supposed to be. And the domestic spread of the Ebola cases that were not supposed to show up in the US in the first instance, and now have been transmitted within the US is also an area of extensive concern.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above plus the continued weakness of the economic data today out of Australia and all of Europe, and then a weak US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey. And as that is the only North American data today, it will continue to be a very psychological market after all of the negative communication from the IMF and World Bank meetings late last week into the weekend.
It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:10, with the GOVVIES from 13:20 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 20:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE that remains consistent with Wednesday’s Global View TrendView video analysis is also only displays the US DOLLAR INDEX at 26:50 with mention of the other currencies from 28:00, returning to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 29:00 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/10/15: Commentary: Fear and Loathing in Las Markets
Commentary: Fear and Loathing in Las Markets
It is more so about general uncertainty
now than any bit of economic data
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
COMMENTARY: Wednesday, October 15, 2014
We have reached the point where this translates into a sense of incompetence on the part of the one country supposedly leading the way toward solutions and renewed stability that is now impacting the capital markets as well.
To sum up some of the previous (now obviously unreliable) indications, Russia’s incursion and pernicious influence in Ukraine and especially the Crimea will be reversed by sanctions; Isis is the ‘junior varsity’ (i.e. incapable of posing a real threat) of a withering Al Qaeda, and in any event the US led 60 country coalition (sort of… more below) will degrade and then destroy it; and Ebola will not come to the US, and even if it does, it will not spread here.
Aside from all the extensive weak data out of Asia, Europe and Emerging Markets (and sporadically the US as well), can anyone doubt there is a ‘confluence’ of negatives that have unmeasurable dimensions which are creating a great degree of uncertainty for an already struggling global economy? As one astute analyst noted early this week, the combination of these factors is ‘unmodelable’. We don’t even know if that is a real word. But in that case, we give him credit for coining it. The real question is what are the concise dimensions of the problem in market activity terms, especially for the equities?
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the Commentary and Conclusion. Silver and Sterling Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the Commentary discussion.
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