2014/10/22 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 22, 2014 (early)

Concise Highlights  

Tuesday’s equities rally extension only reinforces our perspective yesterday morning that quite a bit has obviously changed since the equities’ depths of last Wednesday. And while our negative views on Europe and Asia along with some skepticism even toward the US remain, various influences have evolved to reverse the outright negativity that was apparently overblown last Wednesday. And it had indeed all looked terrible on all fronts for a little while; especially the US Ebola factor as a possible weight on both US travel and retail shopping. We will revisit that below.

For now it is important to again note a key technical trend factor that reflects the improved equities psychology, and informed early week trend views in other asset classes as well. That is the recovery of the December S&P 500 future back above the 1,900 area. As well as other technical reasons cited yesterday, that is the area of the 41-week moving average. That is our proxy for the 200-day moving average, which is a very well acknowledged indication for the overall trend direction and momentum.

As the December S&P 500 future was indeed able to maintain its bid to Close back above it Tuesday after almost $100 of slippage below it last week, it encouraged the bulls; and likely slammed the door on the bears for now. That is both for the technical signal fans who use crossing above it as a ‘buy’ signal, and the psychology for more fundamentally oriented investors who also happen to keep an eye on a select number of technical indicators (even if they are often rue to admit it.)

While this may all be part of evolving a broader top, some significant further strength is to be expected if it maintains any sort of bid above the 1,900 area. And the broader psychological drivers for that are as important as the economic data right now.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. It also mentions the mixed data of late flip-flopping from weakness Monday to strength Tuesday and back to mixed this morning prior to US CPI and Canadian Retail Sales. It also notes the importance of BoE minutes remaining dovish, and degree to which mixed corporate earnings may still indicate a broader top forming.

It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 06:05, with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 08:40, GOVVIES and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 08:55 and FOREIGN EXCHANGE at 09:45, returning to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 10:30 for a final look.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/10/21 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, October 21, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

Quite a bit has obviously changed since the equities’ depths of last Wednesday. That all culminated in the confluence of crises that we summed up in last Wednesday afternoon’s Commentary: Fear and Loathing in Las Markets with a major negative opinion on Europe along the way. And while our negative views on Europe and Asia remain, some things have come along to temper the outright negativity apparently overblown last Wednesday when everything looked terrible for a little while; especially the US Ebola factor. We will revisit that below.

For now it is important to note a key technical trend factor that reflects the improved equities psychology and informs the early week trend view in other asset classes as well. That is the recovery of the December S&P 500 future back above the 1,900 area. As well as the other technical reasons cited below, that is the area of the 41-week moving average. That is our proxy for the 200-day moving average, which is a very well acknowledged indication for the overall trend momentum.

If indeed the December S&P 500 future can manage to maintain its bid to Close back above it today after almost $100 of slippage below it last week, it will encourage the bulls. That is both the technical signal fans who use crossing above it as a ‘buy’ signal, and the psychology for more fundamentally oriented investors who also happen to keep an eye on a select number of technical indicators (even if they are often rue to admit it.)

While this may all be part of evolving a broader top, some significant further strength is to be expected if it maintains any sort of bid above the 1,900 area. And the broader psychological drivers for that are as important as the economic data right now.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. It also mentions the mixed data of late reverting back to weakness on Monday’s Japanese Store Sales and Eurozone Current Account. Today’s Chinese data was in line to a bit better than expected as we head into only US Existing Home Sales as the only US data. Yet we continue to caution that two way volatility will continue due to corporate earnings season now being a prominent factor.

It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:00, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:40, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 17:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:20 and ASIA at 27:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:30 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 33:40 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the extensive trend swings last week and extensive fundamental influences, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/10/17 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 17, 2014 (early)

Concise Highlights  

While we continue to be concerned about Mario Draghi’s battle with the fiscally parsimonious factions in northern Europe and the Isis threat and other disruptions in the Middle East, it is now glaringly apparent that the US Ebola scare was a major part of the sharp ‘risk off’ equities swing of the past week-and-a-half. And in that regard the major disconnect between US administration rhetoric and the ‘facts on the ground’ were very disturbing. The idea that Ebola would not get to the US, and if here had no chance to spread turned out to be (typically) overly optimistic.

The mismanagement of both the message and the process by the Obama administration’s minions at the Centers for Disease Control and National Institutes of Health was more so the problem than any real spread of the disease. There is a significant tendency in the US administration to downplay the serious nature of some problems (Isis comes to mind), which then leaves them looking either out of touch with reality or passingly dishonest with the US public. Either way, it foments fear and distrust that spills over into markets.  

However, ‘Ebolaphobia’ is now abating in the wake of a Congressional hearing yesterday that included the nation’s top health and epidemic specialists. And the equities were also assisted by previously weak economic data also healing into yesterday. That included a better Euro-zone Trade Balance, and US Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial production and Philly Fed Index. That left Wednesday’s December S&P 500 future 1,814 low (right near major 1,810-08 support) looking like the end of the elusive 10% trading correction. _____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of most of the factors noted above. It also mentions the lack of much data today, and since the video recording US Housing Starts have already come in strong. All that is left this week is the Preliminary Michigan Sentiment and Janet Yellen speaking… on ‘inequality’.

It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:50, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00, with the GOVVIES from 13:20 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 18:10. FOREIGN EXCHANGE only displays the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:20 with mention of the other currencies from 24:00, and DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 29:00 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/10/16 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, October 16, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

While we continue to be concerned about Mario Draghi’s battle with the fiscally parsimonious factions in northern Europe (especially the conservative portion of the German political class) over the ECB’s right to pursue that broader monetary expansion program, it is now glaringly apparent that broader global politico-economic forces are the more prominent market factor. And in that regard the major disconnect between US administration rhetoric and the ‘facts on the ground’ which are disturbing to the equities, and have so significantly bolstered the govvies.

We are only going to touch on all that briefly prior to the major evolution of our market trend view in the General Update below. This is because we extensively reviewed the confluence of factors that are affecting the various asset classes’ psychologies in yesterday’s major Commentary: Fear and Loathing in Las Markets. As we noted, “The old adage is that “the market (which is to say ‘equities’) dislikes nothing quite so much as uncertainty” …and there is an abundance of that around of late.”

And we continue,”…quite a few aspects of the global politico-economic disarray that is not within the control of the Obama administration, there is still a certain amount of culpability. That is on a lack of understanding of the nature of some fairly critical problems, or failing to communicate informed opinion and cogent plans.” None of which is meant to be overtly political this close to the US midterm elections. Yet there is a sense across a whole range of issues where the US government is not providing the leadership necessary to address critical developments on Ebola, Isis, Eastern Europe and especially the overall economic situation (in spite of cooing over recent jobs gains.)      

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. It also mentions the weakness of the data up until this morning’s strength of Chinese New Yuan Loans and the Euro-zone Trade Balance. US Initial Jobless Claims (released after the video recording) were also constructive as we head into US Industrial production and the Philly Fed Index.

It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 06:15, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 13:35 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 20:50. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 25:20, jumping over to EUROPE at 26:50 and ASIA at 29:40, followed by the CROSS RATES at 33:00 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 37:00 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the extensive trend swings yesterday into this morning, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...