2014/10/30 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, October 30, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

In the event the FOMC appears to have surprised to some degree with a shift not so much to a hawkish stance as a move that was more clearly neutral than what the markets expected. And if the initial damage to the equities looked minimal along with some weight on the post-QE3 govvies, things may not be as they appeared yesterday afternoon. The critical question now is whether the Fed has crossed a critical tipping point: Does their shift Wednesday move the equities from a ‘bad news is good news’ psychology to a ‘good news is bad news’ environment? On current form that appears to be the case.

Note not just the weakness of the European equities on their better-than-expected data this morning, but that extended sense of Wednesday’s Fed shift also left the December S&P 500 future slipping back from its 1,985 and 1,975-78 areas. Even though the latter was retested late yesterday, overnight it was trading off twelve dollars into the 1,960 area. And since the video analysis was recorded the release of US Advance (first look) Q-3 GDP showed a better-than-expected 3.50% gain (versus a 2.90% estimate.) Yet this has only engendered a five dollar bounce to the 1,965 area. Of course, whether ‘good news’ really is ‘bad news’ will be more so critical once it gets back down to the next lower supports in the 1,955-50 range (with that classical Tolerance to 1,945.)  

In addition to all of the external geopolitical and economic influences, there is the conundrum of the mixed US economic indications that must be sorted out in a less accommodative Fed environment. In spite of sustained (yet somewhat below hoped for) employment gains, recent strong sentiment indications are countered by a second month in a row of weak US Durable Goods orders. And there’s a real contradiction in the recent surprisingly weak Retail Sales that was followed by Tuesday’s very strong US Consumer Confidence. After the massive recovery rally, it’s going to be very interesting from here.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of quite a few of the factors noted above. It also mentions the typical end of month economic data tsunami will continue to flow into tomorrow, yet with the FOMC shift still most prominent.

It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 06:00, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 08:15, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 13:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 17:40. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:15, jumping over to EUROPE at 23:20 and ASIA at 27:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 30:15 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 33:45 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to include some discussion of the Fed’s shift, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/10/29 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

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The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, October 29, 2014 (early)

Concise Highlights  

And today all market participants get to indulge in one of the financial industry’s favorite pastimes: ‘Waiting on the Fed’. While even these straight decision and statement meetings can have a sharp impact on markets at times (especially equities), we are not looking for that today. There has been a clear foreshadowing of the Fed’s intent to remain as dovish as possible for as long as possible in spite of the nominal signs of recovery in the US economy. As such, there is little chance of a surprise at 13:00 US Central Time today. The announcement of the end of QE-3 (that was dubbed ‘QE-Infinity’ by some for its open ended amount of purchases) will most certainly be accompanied by reaffirmation of the Fed’s commitment to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time.”  

And that may be reasonable in light of two key factors. The first is the spotty, and at times contradictory, economic data in the US. There is the sustained yet somewhat below hoped for employment gain. Recently some strong sentiment indications were countered by the second month in a row of weak US Durable Goods orders. And there’s a real contradiction in the recent surprisingly weak Retail Sales that was followed by Tuesday’s very strong Consumer Confidence. Along with slipping median incomes across the past five years, the Fed must be allowed to see this as more constructive muddle than strong growth.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. It also mentions the FOMC action this afternoon will be a straight rate decision and statement, NOT a major projections and press conference meeting.

It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:45, with OTHER EQUITIES from 07:20, and only mention of GOVVIES and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 12:00 and FOREIGN EXCHANGE at 13:00, returning to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 13:50 for a final look.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/10/28 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, October 28, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

As noted previous, last week Tuesday’s US equities rally extension on a gap higher opening above 1,900 in the December S&P 500 future reinforced our perspective that their rally could continue quite a bit higher prior topping again. While there had been some real fear two week ago into the low 1,800 support, quite a bit had changed since those depths sentiment and price activity. Even any recent dips back from new highs for the current rally have been nominal compared to the massive recovery from the 1,814 selloff low two weeks ago. And while our negative views on Europe and Asia along with some skepticism even toward the US remain (reinforced by this morning’s second month in a row of weak US Durable Goods Orders), various influences have evolved to restore some near term confidence.

Not the least of that is apparent in very limited equities dips in response to the fresh, yet isolated, suspected and confirmed cases of Ebola in New York City. We will review that further below. Yet the degree to which ‘Ebolaphobia’ (fears of suppressed US travel and retail shopping) has waned is obviously positive for the US equities.

And on the back of other near term constructive factors like somewhat better Asian and European economic data, US equities have continued to hold only minor selloffs back into near term supports. That was apparent in December S&P 500 future holding the 1,945 Tolerance of the 1,950-55 area on the most recent NYC Ebola scare Monday morning. Even if there is a broader near term reaction, more prominent supports remain in the 1,925-18 area and 1,900 area fresh gap once again. Bigger resistances are not until 1,975-78 and 1,985 areas, as well as the ultimate resistance into a downward gap just above the 2,000 area from the beginning of the recent selloff back in late September.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above. It also mentions the mixed data of late continuing with firmer Asian and European economic data in spite of a weak German IFO Monday morning. Since the video recording that was followed by the second consecutive weaker-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders into the Case/Shiller Home Price data, US Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Index.

It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:15, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:45 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:40, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:45 and ASIA at 25:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:30 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:45 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to being our first Global View in several sessions, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...