2014/11/06 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, November 6, 2014 (early)
Concise Highlights
As noted Wednesday morning, it was sort of a ‘wave’ election victory for Republicans Tuesday. While they never had a chance to establish the ‘super-majority’ in the Senate (holding a 60 seat veto-proof majority), they did grab overall control with a clear 52 seats out of 100, with another couple likely to go their way over the next month or so. The degree to which they also triumphed in strongly contested state gubernatorial races in typical Democratic strongholds like the President’s adopted Illinois home, Maryland and Massachusetts while holding on to Wisconsin and Florida is a further repudiation of the previous couple of years’ Senate Democrat engendered gridlock.
Yet as we have pointed out, even a more mainstream Republican Party (i.e. having tamed the more outlandish Tea Party influence) remains fairly fractious. And the further political and especially economic sentiment improvements their victory seems to portend will rest with two key factors. Can they now evolve from a very pointed protest vote victory to a constructive legislative agenda their entire party can support?
And will President Obama become more accommodative to centrist political initiatives from his current Left wing ideologue stances? As we noted in yesterday’s post-US Close write-up, presumed new Senate Majority Leader McConnell and the President both discussed the need to compromise Wednesday afternoon. Yet they did so in more general terms than some had hoped. That left room for the equities and US dollar to assume the best potential for constructive activity while not weighing on the fixed income as we head into this morning’s ECB press conference influence.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above along with the return to weakness in the recent economic data. That includes Tuesday’s US ISM New York and Factory Orders along with yesterday’s Global Services PMI’s so far (except for Italy) including the US. There had also been and very weak Euro-zone Retail Sales followed by German Factory Orders this morning.
It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:25, with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 06:40, and GOVVIES at 07:05 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 07:50. Mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins at 08:10, with a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 10:00 for a final look and additional perspective.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/11/07 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2014/11/07 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, November 7, 2014 (early)
Has Super Mario slain all of the demons? The headlines from the very beginning of the ECB President’s opening statement were telling, as could be readily seen in the short-term market responses. While there are times when Mario Draghi can disappoint with somewhat vague references to Governing Council’s direction during the statement, the message Thursday morning was eminently clear. That included the current ECB balance sheet expansion program being a two-year commitment, that it would be massive, and would be pursued through all current unconventional means (LTRO, Covered Bonds and ABS program), and that any number of additional unconventional instruments would be pursued if those fail to accomplish the desired degree of balance sheet expansion.
Are we clear?! There were also some other very important yet more technical aspects of the press conference we will revisit soon in a Commentary. For now suffice to say that the equities (perversely the US more so than Europe) and US dollar really enjoyed this while it weighed modestly on the govvies (once again more so the US than Europe.)
And the further encouragement for the equities was as noted Wednesday morning: the ‘quasi-wave’ election victory for Republicans Tuesday. While they never had a chance to establish the ‘super-majority’ in the Senate (holding a 60 seat veto-proof majority), they did grab overall control with a clear 52 seats out of 100, with another couple likely to go their way over the next month or so. The degree to which they also triumphed in strongly contested state gubernatorial races in typical Democratic strongholds like the President’s adopted Illinois home, Maryland and Massachusetts while holding on to Wisconsin and Florida is a further repudiation of the past couple of years’ Senate Democrat engendered gridlock. The equities liked that as well, as evidenced by Wednesday’s US gap higher.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above along with the mixed nature of recent economic data. That includes the weakness of Tuesday’s US ISM New York and Factory Orders along with Wednesday’s Global Services PMI’s (except for Italy) including the US. There had also been very weak Euro-zone Retail Sales followed by Thursday’s German Factory Orders. While the German Industrial Production and Trade Balance were better-than-expected this morning, the real influence will of course be out of the US Employment report.
It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 01:30 and intermediate term at 04:20, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:00, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 09:50 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 13:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 18:15 and ASIA at 21:20, followed by the CROSS RATES at 25:40 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:20 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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