2014/11/17 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, November 17, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
As we had suggested previous, the major central bank Quantitative Easing programs are burdened by external factors which cloud their potential to actually improve economic growth. While the initial phase was enlightened to the degree it allayed fears of a financial meltdown, extended phases have not added much real economic growth. Just look at Europe, and now especially Japan. The problem is apparent in Mario Draghi and other central bankers bemoaning the lack of structural reform. In our view it is benighted to try and reinstitute a symptom to restore confidence in what they are really after: robust economic growth.
Beginning several weeks ago we began to note it was finally becoming the ultimate critical issue that many had downplayed previous. The ball now seems in the US’ court to come up with sensible evolution in so many areas that already have bipartisan support. Not the least of these is corporate tax reform that can stimulate investment and hiring. Yet here as well the reversion to highly partisan posturing by the Obama administration on volatile issues seems to say ‘politics’ trumps ‘policy’. While we will have more to say on that soon, for now the extreme downside miss on Japanese GDP this morning only reinforces other economic indications which were not that encouraging. In spite of upbeat US influences last Friday, the implication from last Wednesday’s news and reports remains troubling.
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Video Timeline: It begins with limited macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above along with the more constructive influences out of the US on Friday. Yet that has been offset by weaker than expected US Industrial Production today. That said, the volume of economic releases is rather light in spite of the Japanese GDP shock, and much more important economic data, central bank meeting minutes and NGO reports will follow throughout the week.
It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 01:40 and intermediate term at 04:00, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:00, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:20, jumping over to EUROPE at 21:20 and ASIA at 24:20, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:20 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:10 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the Japanese data discussion, we suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/11/19 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/11/19 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, November 19, 2014 (early)
As we had suggested previous, the major central bank Quantitative Easing programs are burdened by external factors which cloud their potential to actually improve economic growth. While the initial phase was enlightened to the degree it allayed fears of a financial meltdown, extended phases have not added much real economic growth. Just look at Europe, and now especially Japan. The problem is apparent in Mario Draghi and other central bankers bemoaning the lack of structural reform. Our view it is very consistent with the thought that trying to reinstitute a symptom (inflation) to restore confidence that leads to robust economic growth has the cart well out in front of the horse.
Beginning several weeks ago we began to note it was finally becoming the ultimate critical issue that many had downplayed previous. The ball now seems in the US’ court to come up with sensible evolution in so many areas that already have bipartisan support. Not the least of these is corporate tax reform to stimulate investment and hiring. Yet yesterday’s US Senate failure to pass the Keystone Pipeline approval indicates it is (toxic) ‘politics as usual’ in Washington DC. And on the economic front, even as the US is viewed as the ‘cleanest shirt in the hamper’ both Monday’s Industrial Production and this morning’s Housing Starts were disappointing. However, any influence on equities may be deferred until the New Year, as the late year ‘Santa Claus’ mentality is likely to buffer any selloffs.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of a some of the factors noted above, including the key weak data out of Europe in spite of Tuesday’s ZEW bright spot. It also notes the recent weakening of US data and dovish BoE minutes, yet with this afternoon’s FOMC meeting minutes and Thursday’s global Advance PMI’s likely the more critical influences late this week.
It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:40, with OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, and the DECEMBER T-NOTE FUTURE at 11:40 in the GOVVIES with only mention of the others and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS. Mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 14:00, EUROPE at 14:40 and ASIA at 15:40, and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 17:00 for a final look and additional perspective.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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