2014/12/05 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, December 5, 2014 (early)
C
oncise Highlights
A bit earlier this morning the US Orion spacecraft was the first successful launch of its type in 42 years. The question now is whether the US equities can also achieve the ‘escape velocity’ necessary to escape the sustained intermediate term trend from the significant 2011 selloff lows? While the trend has been bullish overall, the QE vacillation by the ECB yesterday left equities under pressure prior to rebounding in the wake of its announcement AFTER the press conference ended that there would be more aggressive QE in January!! That is important for a DAX that set a new all-time high prior to slipping back below its previous June 10,050 all-time high. Whether it can exceed that once again will be a key factor as we head into the US Employment report and other data today.
If the further strength in the December S&P 500 future should carry it above the 2,075 major weekly topping line (which rises to 2,079 next week), it will likely be headed for the low-2,100 area. That would seem to imply the DAX should also be headed significantly higher if it can breach its previous all-time high. With the ECB now seemingly (finally) committed to more aggressive QE, the rest is with the US Employment response today.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above along with the return to strength in some of the Asian and European economic data of late. It also notes the release of US Factory Orders and Consumer Credit data later today.
It moves on to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:10, with OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, with only mention of GOVVIES and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 11:25. FOREIGN EXCHANGE is also only mentioned, beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 12:25, EUROPE at 12:45 and Asia at 13:20 prior to returning to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 14:30 for a final look and additional perspective.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/12/09 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2014/12/09 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, December 9, 2014 (early)
Weak Crude Oil price responsible for equities rout?! We doubt it. While that may be the received wisdom from some quarters, it totally flies in the face of the reality of all of the major economies that benefit from lower energy prices. As we have noted extensively of late, that is due not just to lower corporate operating expenses, but also greater consumer discretionary spending that can be directed away from heating and cooling as well as transportation fuel.
If there is one aspect of these sharply lower Crude Oil prices which might be a concern for global equities, it might be the geopolitical risk engendered by the pressures on higher cost producers who are also international troublemakers. Obviously that includes Russia most prominently, followed by Iran, Venezuela and others. However, to conclude that the equities weakness is based on geopolitical ‘tail’ risk rather than recently weaker data sounds a bit far-fetched. Might it simply be that the much lower international trade turnover apparent in recent Chinese and European data is giving the equities pause?
And then there was Monday's OECD Composite Leading Indicators. While they always try to put a positive spin on their six-month forward view (in this case on the typical two-month delay from October), a closer look would indicate that upside momentum is stalling in the US while weakness remains throughout Europe, Japan and the UK with China being problematic.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above along with the weakness of the economic data after last Friday’s US Employment report upside blowout (interestingly with better-than-expected German Factory Orders as well.) However, most of the recent data out of Europe and especially Asia has been weaker than expected as we head into only US Wholesale Trade and Inventories along with a couple of other minor numbers today.
It moves to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:10 and intermediate term at 05:35, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:45, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:30 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:25. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:40, jumping over to EUROPE at 20:30 and ASIA at 22:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:00 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:10 for a final look and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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