2014/12/19 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, December 19, 2014 (early)

Concise Highlights  

Run Rabbit Run. Yep, the old song title might apply to a particular equity market population right now: the bears. And it explains a lot about Thursday’s US equities explosion. Consider that there was supposed to be a global financial crisis on the contagion from Russia’s (and other oil exporters’) weakness due to the crumbling Crude Oil price over the past six weeks. And for a while the developed country economic assumptions and equity market trends were acting like this could be the case, and not just another version of the 1997 Asian Contagion.

However, across time it became apparent that Russia was less likely this time than in either 1998 or 1986 to experience a financial meltdown. The reasons for that are explored in yesterday’s Global View post’s opening comments, with a link to a very concise explanation from the folks at the Financial Times. Once Russia and the ruble appeared at least ‘stabilized’ along with Mr. Putin’s upbeat speech Thursday morning, a lot of the threat goes away. And think about what else the equities had as macro influences: a still accommodative Fed with other banks pushing QE, all of which is into very much improved economic data of late (after previous dire serial weak indications), and to the degree people put any faith in it that includes a major Chinese upward revision to 2013 GDP.

So it was no surprise that all of the bearish rabbits were running as fast as they could from US equities that had favored them so significantly from early last week until Wednesday. The worst case scenario is not a market turning against one; that happens. It is when it turns viciously that real problems occur. We suspect a good deal of Thursday’s extended strength was the bears pushing the market up on themselves.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above, along with strength of Friday morning’s economic data out of Japan, the Euro-zone and the UK. It goes on to note that there is little influence from North America today, with only Canadian Retail Sales and the US Kansas City Fed Index.

It moves on to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:40 and intermediate term at 06:00, with OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00 and GOVVIES at 12:30 with only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:30 followed by only mention of EUROPE AT 19:45 and ASIA at 20:25 prior to returning to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 21:00 for a final look and additional perspective. _____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Read more...

2014/12/18 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, December 18, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

We noted it was going to be another ‘FOMC Wonderful Wednesday’ yesterday, and so it was. There were goodies for both equities bulls and the short term traders in the direction and volatility. And they can thank Fed Chair Yellen for both the overall accommodation that restored recently missing ‘risk-on’ psychology and the near term dip during her press conference as she, yep, you guessed it… misspoke yet again!! The equities initial encouragement from the FOMC statement was due to it maintaining a variation (‘patient’) of the ‘considerable time’ prior to any rate hike language. (See our markup of the FOMC statement HERE.) 

That was temporarily disrupted by her assertion that any ‘normalization’ would not be “for at least the next couple of meetings.” Well, the folks who happen to look at the calendar knew that might mean as early as the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, which is much earlier than the mid-year horizon the markets were expecting. And once again she had to walk back that inference with “this doesn’t mean there is any preset time for ‘normalization’ to begin.” Predictably orderly chaos. Traders surely liked the dip back to key levels that ended with the equities surging after she clarified the position.

And in addition to somewhat better global economic data this morning there was also the typical marathon annual press conference by Russian President Putin. It was running three hours when we last checked at 06:00 CST. And while not exactly conciliatory about any of his nation’s recent geopolitical moves, neither was he more aggressive. And the key for the markets was that he noted the Russian economy would likely emerge from its weakness after only two years. While that prediction might be suspect, it did provide further enthusiasm for the equities. And there is good reason to believe that in spite of the massive ruble slide that Russia might be able to avoid a financial crunch like back in 1998.

There was a very good column on that by the folks over at LEX with the Financial Times which is worth a read for anyone less than familiar with Russian corporate finance. It is essentially about how the Central Bank of Russia can use its huge foreign currency reserves to indirectly assist the corporate sector… and already has begun to do so.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above, along with the importance of the improved economic data out of the Euro-zone and UK this morning. It goes on to note extensive US data today including Weekly Jobless Claims, Advance Services PMI, Leading indicators and the Philly Fed.

It moves to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 06:20, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 08:10, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:35 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:50. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:20, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:30 and ASIA at 24:50, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:20 and a return to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:50 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to explore the specifics of the FOMC influence, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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