2015/01/13 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, January 13, 2015 (early)
Global View: All Markets
As we anticipated last Wednesday, the psychology from our post-FOMC post in mid-December (“Run Rabbit Run”) still applied to a particular equity market population into the release of the minutes from that meeting: the bears. And it explains a lot about the friendly anticipation and then follow-on Thursday significant gap higher of the US equities (with the others in tow.) That was much the same as back on Thursday, December 18th. Yet even the constructive headline US Employment report Friday could no longer propel the equities higher in the face of much weaker than expected US Hourly Earnings (-0.2% versus +0.25 expected.) This touches on a point we revisit below on whether all the central bank QE is accomplishing its stated goals.
So even though equities and other asset classes experienced a similar reaction to release of the minutes of that FOMC meeting last Wednesday afternoon as the actual event back in December, the entire ‘bad news is good news’ psychology as a driver for any major extension of the now lengthy equities rally is more suspect. That is of course exacerbated in the near term by the way in which the weak demand psychology in energy markets fits in with weaker data like that soft US Hourly Earnings figure. All of this is also obviously constructive for the fixed income, and not really hurting the US dollar’s bull run.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above along with the continued weakness of data out of Asia and Europe over the past several days. Especially the weak German and UK inflation indications are telling as we head into the limited US NFIB Small Business Optimism, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Jobs Survey today prior to more major influences tomorrow. Those include the European Court of Justice non-binding advice on ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), which is viewed as a judgment on its expanded QE aspirations.
It moves to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:45 and intermediate term at 05:30, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:40, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:15 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 18:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:10, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:00 and ASIA at 27:50, followed by the CROSS RATES at 32:30 and a return to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 36:40 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss some broader factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/01/15 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/01/15 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, January 15, 2015 (early)
Swiss National Bank SHOCKER!!! Well, maybe not so much in general as opposed to the way in which the removal of the support for the euro against the Swiss franc was terminated. As the old saying goes, “It’s not what you do, it’s how you do it.” Generally speaking, it could not have been a total shock the Swiss were going to need to stop buying the many billions of euros they were purchasing to support it against the franc. With the euro already the organically weakest sister (as noted in much of our recent analysis) and the ECB gearing up for the expanded quantitative easing program which implies further euro weakness, the Swiss National Bank was going to need to stop buying at some point.
Maybe yesterday’s European Court of Justice advocate-general’s 'advice' (generally followed in the court’s full decision due within six months) that the ECB Outright Monetary Transactions program was constitutional within certain obvious limits created more urgency to abandon the euro support policy. In any event, to abandon it all at once after pursuing it since September 2011 seemed a bit abrupt. But what else was it really to do? Any attempt at a gradual withdrawal which maintained either trading limits or interim support bands was unacceptable. The former would create severe illiquidity, and the latter would force major further euro purchases when it was obviously headed lower.
The balance of our views on skepticism toward central bank quantitative easing’s ultimate efficacy, the lack of economic reforms, global economic weakness outside the US (and possibly within it), and other global politico-economic challenges remain much the same as Tuesday’s Global View TrendView video post and General Update trend assessment. That is in spite of today’s temporary dislocations from the Swiss National Bank action and initially sharp market responses. We refer you back to that for those views.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above along with the continued weakness of data out of Asia and Europe spilling over into the US of late as well. Yet Australian Employment was better than expected as we awaited US Empire Manufacturing, PPI, Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed.
It moves to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:15 and intermediate term at 06:15, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:15, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:15 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 17:50. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:00 and ASIA at 27:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 31:00 and a return to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 34:40 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss some broader factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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