2015/02/19 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, February 19, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

THIS POST HAS BEEN DELAYED BY SERVER CONNECTION PROBLEMS AT OUR VENDORS! Likely due to the extreme cold in the upper tier, there were significant problems with uploading our video analysis. The blessing is that the markets are little changed from Wednesday morning’s analysis, and we only explore S&P 500 in the video analysis this morning. The balance remains much the same as Wednesday morning’s Global View video and General Update text after the US Close.

So it is back to more Agony and Ecstasy at the same time from similar sources. On the Ecstasy side, the first ever release of ECB meeting minutes earlier this morning showed somewhat surprising unanimity on the aggressive QE program where some dissent had been expected. On the Agony front, Germany has rejected the Greek call for a loan deal extension to work out the details of how Greece can mitigate the harsh austerity that most informed observers allow was not working to right their fiscal ship. The interesting part is that after the govvies friendly response to the accommodative FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon, the equities are not acting too badly this morning in the wake of the German rejection of a loan deal extension by Greece even prior to further talks on Friday.

Along with the additional economic data in the form of the global Advance PMI’s for February, that will make for a very interesting finish to the week. And as noted yesterday, there are reasons to suspect the environment is stronger on a renewed ‘bad news is good news’ psychology and another key factor: the continued weakness of the energy market.

While the pressure on oil company stocks contributed to bouts of equities weakness out of December into January, that has now been ‘priced in’. This was always going to be another ‘agony and ecstasy’ situation, where the benefit to the general global economy was going to be a benefit after the weakness hit the oil patch. And we indeed heard of energy company layoffs and capital investment cutbacks last month. Yet this is a hard influence to quantify, as nobody is quite sure when or how the consumer will spend monies retained from energy expanse. That is also softened to some degree by extensive northern tier cold snaps and storms this winter. Yet equities are not necessarily focused on today’s spending so much as the outlook, and that has undoubtedly improved.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with much better non-US economic data this morning even if US Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed ended up on the weak side.

It moves on to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:30, with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00, GOVVIES at 09:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 10:15. Due to it being not much changed from Wednesday, there is also only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 10:30 followed by EUROPE at 10:45, ASIA at 11:30 and CROSS RATE TENDENCIES at 12:15 prior to returning to the DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 12:30 for a final look and additional perspective.  

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2015/02/18 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, February 18, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

As we have noted since our last video Thursday morning, it seems the Ecstasy prevails in equities in spite of the lack of a Greek debt agreement. While the lack of agreement is as expected (pending a bit more brinksmanship into Friday’s really final deadline), equities response is quite a bit stronger than might have been imagined in the wake of weak economic data as well. Yet there are reasons to suspect the environment is stronger on a renewed ‘bad news is good news’ psychology and another key factor: the continued weakness of the energy market.

While the pressure on oil company stocks contributed to bouts of equities weakness out of December into January, that has now been ‘priced in’. This was always going to be another ‘agony and ecstasy’ situation, where the benefit to the general global economy was going to be a benefit after the weakness hit the oil patch. And we indeed heard of energy company layoffs and capital investment cutbacks last month. Yet this is a hard influence to quantify, as nobody is quite sure when or how the consumer will spend monies retained from energy expanse. That is also softened to some degree by extensive northern tier cold snaps and storms this winter. Yet equities are not necessarily focused on today’s spending so much as the outlook, and that has undoubtedly improved.

And on the ‘macro’ front, the Greek debt and structural reform renegotiation will remain at the heart of near term sentiment. While the Ukrainian situation is more of a humanitarian crisis, it is less financially critical that what transpires between Greece and the Troika.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with anticipation of much more US data Thursday and the global Advance PMI's on Friday along with other interesting data. 

It moves on to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE intermediate term view at 02:00 and short-term indications at 05:15,OTHER EQUITIES from 07:15, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 16:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:45, jumping over to EUROPE at 20:30 and ASIA at 24:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 27:10 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 30:00 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss extended background and technical trend factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2015/02/12 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, February 12, 2015 (late)

Global View: All Markets  

As we noted Thursday morning, it seems the Ecstasy prevails in equities in spite of the lack of a Greek debt renegotiation deal. While the lack of agreement is as expected, the equities response is quite a bit stronger than might have been imagined in the wake of so much weak economic data as well. Yet there are reasons to suspect the environment is stronger on a renewed ‘bad news is good news’ psychology. There is Riksbank cutting the repo rate in Sweden to -0.10% from zero while announcing new QE. Possibly that along with the next round of Ukraine-Russia cease fire agreements (with disappointing details) have left the equities in such a buoyant mood.

We also noted the degree to which this has stopped weighing on the weaker govvies for now (especially US and UK) in the wake of the weak data. As we have noted in many previous similar circumstances, if equities are rising on negative economic data, the further ‘bad news is good news’ psychology can allow govvies to rally right along with them. In fact, if the current weak data extends into future releases it will begin to weigh on expectations for global Q1 GDP. And that is after the serious downside miss in the initial US Q4 GDP release. Whether or not that is a drag on equities will be very interesting, yet if the weak data continues it will be a tonic for govvies... at least in the near term.

And the first reflection of that ‘bad news is good news’ being back in place is the March S&P 500 future ability to extend its rally above key 2,060.50 post-January US Employment report high prior to the selloff back down to the 1,985-78 area. Holding 2,040-36 important interim congestion on Monday seemed constructive, and that remains the key near term support. Yet far more important is today’s gap higher that encouraged the violation of the 2,075-78 resistance. The video explores the short-term implications which now point to a test of late December’s 2,088.70 all-time high, with not much above that until 2,020-25. 

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with anticipation of much more European data Friday that includes Euro-zone GDP along with those readings from major component economies.

It moves on to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE intermediate term view at 02:00 and short-term indications at 06:00. That was purposely reversed in this evening’s video because so many indications are critical in the intermediate term activity. It then continues with the OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:30 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 18:20. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:15, jumping over to EUROPE at 23:00 and ASIA at 26:10, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:10 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:00 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss extended background and technical trend factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

2015/02/12 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, February 12, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

It seems the Ecstasy prevails in equities in spite of the lack of a Greek debt renegotiation deal. While the lack of agreement is as expected, the equities response is quite a bit stronger than might have been imagined in the wake of so much weak economic data as well. Yet there are reasons to suspect the environment is stronger on further ‘bad news is good news’ psychology. There is Riksbank cutting the repo rate in Sweden to -0.10% from zero while announcing a new QE program. Possibly that along with the next round of Ukraine-Russia cease fire agreements (details to be announced) have left the equities in such a buoyant mood.

And the interesting bit is the degree to which this has stopped weighing on the weaker govvies for now (especially US and UK) in the wake of the weak data. As we have noted in many previous similar circumstances, if equities are rising on negative economic data, the further ‘bad news is good news’ psychology can allow govvies to rally right along with them. In fact, if the current weak data extends into future releases it will begin to weigh on expectations for global Q1 GDP. And that is after the serious downside miss in the initial US Q4 GDP release. Whether or not that is a drag on equities will be very interesting.

And the first reflection of that ‘bad news is good news’ being back in place is the March S&P 500 future ability to extend its rally above key 2,060.50 post-January US Employment report high prior to the selloff back down to the 1,985-78 area. Holding 2,040-36 important interim congestion on Monday seemed constructive, and that remains the key near term support. Yet far more important will be whether it can push out above the top of 2,075-78 resistance it tested this morning, and push above late December’s 2,088.70 all-time high.  

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with anticipation of much more European data tomorrow that includes Euro-zone GDP along with those readings from major component economies.

It moves on to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:10 and intermediate term at 05:10, with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES at 08:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 09:30. Due to it being not much changed from Wednesday, there is also only mention of FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 09:50 followed by EUROPE at 10:20, ASIA at 11:05 and CROSS RATE TENDENCIES at 12:00 prior to returning to the MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 12:20 for a final look and additional perspective.  

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...