2015/03/02 Concise Non-Video Comment(early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
CONCISE COMMENT (Non-Video): Monday, March 2, 2015 (early)
Concise Comment: Select Views
Friday’s TrendView Global View video analysis and the General Update Market Observations from after Friday’s US Close (including some observations on influences over the weekend) remain the relevant assessment. As noted from the middle of last week, it seems like the battle between Agony and Ecstasy in the equities has been resolved in favor of the latter, even if that is more apparent in Europe and Japan for now. However, it is of note that the still accommodative Fed view from Fed Chair Yellen’s two day Congressional testimony and Q&A should have been a more supportive factor that did not seem to help in the face of somewhat weaker data late last week.
This difference between aggressive central bank QE and mere accommodative rate outlook was highlighted last week. The stronger performances by the DAX and NIKKEI encouraged by the respective ECB and BoJ aggressive Quantitative Easing programs versus the S&P 500 and FTSE indices was striking. Especially with Greek Debt Agreement concern now addressed for the near term, the DAX is exhibiting a significant degree of ‘catch up’ with its US cousins. It has been lagging ever since the Russia-Ukraine problems first surfaced in the middle of last year. While there might be other drags which come along to deter further strength, for now all the equities appear to be well supported.
This is reinforced by the weakness of the govvies in spite of some of that weaker data, and even in spite of the soft tone to a March S&P 500 future. It slid back toward 2,100 support at the end of last week (with extended support into 2,090-88) instead of extending its rally. Govvies weakness was evident in the March T-note future post-Yellen rally failing from the 129-00 area, much as the March Gilt future failed from the low-mid 120.00 area previous congestion and DOWN Break to back below 119.75. While the March Bund future remained firm, even this tower of strength did not follow through on its 159.54 UP Break above the January all-time high. And it expires on Friday, with the June contract trading more than 2.00 lower… which could be a problem as well into next week.
Foreign exchange remains a mostly consolidating affair in spite of some residual strength in the US Dollar Index above its .9500 resistance. Yet even there it is more of a churning affair where other key currencies have not failed major supports. That includes EUR/USD slipping back from above 1.1380 to below its 1.1275 interim support, yet not really near the more major 1.1100 area hit after January’s ECB aggressive QE announcement. Even more impressive is GBP/USD firming from its 1.5000 test to well back above 1.5200, even leaving a fresh UP Break at 1.5340 on its way above 1.5400.
▪ We will be providing a fresh TrendView Global View video analysis and the General Update Market Observations tomorrow morning. In the meantime, this week’s Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available to Sterling echelon and higher subscribers via the sidebar, and Key Levels & Select Comments technical projections from after Friday’s US Close are available to Platinum echelon subscribers via the sidebar.
Thanks for your interest.
2015/03/03 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/03/03 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, March 3, 2015 (early)
As noted from the middle of last week, it seems like the battle between Agony and Ecstasy in the equities has been resolved in favor of the latter, even if that is more apparent in Europe and Japan for now. However, it is of note that the sustained accommodative Fed view from Fed Chair Yellen’s two day Congressional testimony and Q&A should have been a more supportive factor that did not seem to help in the face of somewhat weaker data late last week. And it was also interesting that Monday’s weakish US economic data still fostered a rally in equities and the US dollar, and brought more pressure onto the govvies.
It seems like two factors are at work here. The first is ‘bad news is good news’ psychology has been reinstated by the aggressive QE programs of the ECB and BoJ. As such, it is no surprise that the DAX and NIKKEI were the upside leaders last week. Even as the US equities were trading up into new highs, both they and the FTSE were obvious laggards. As noted of late, it pays for equities to have a central bank engaged in aggressive QE. Those effects could easily be on anticipation that this Thursday’s ECB meeting will likely reaffirm of its aggressive QE program. That would also explain renewed weakness of the euro on what has been no worse than mixed European data. And further anticipation of another round of an additional 200,000+ jobs gained in this Friday’s US Employment report would explain the weakness of the govvies and strength of the US dollar. That is an awful lot of anticipation. And we will need to see if the markets feed on those influences, or whether much of that impact is being ‘priced in’ with the early week anticipation.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the key factors noted above along with how much the global data has been mixed. It also reviewed the weakness of Monday’s US data and the short term pressure on equities being due at least in part to disappointment with the Reserve Bank of Australia holding steady at 2.25% today instead of cutting to 2.00% as expected. Anticipation matters.
It moves on to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:00 and intermediate term view at 04:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:40 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 19:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:30 and ASIA at 28:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 32:20 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 35:40 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss extended background factors and key aspects of the expiration rollover of the Bund future on Friday, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...