2015/03/10 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, March 10, 2015 (early)
Global View: All Markets
Cutting right to the markets chase, the US equities tendencies toward late week strength prior to the last two weeks is now completely reversed. The softness two weeks ago was already a serious warning sign in light of Janet Yellen’s expression of the Fed’s continued highly accommodative stance. As we have noted for a while, the real benefit from is more so from actual aggressive central bank QE, and a mere accommodative rate outlook is less influential. The degree to which the Fed’s low rate regime will be under further pressure due to the series of recent strong NFP numbers finally showed up in the US equities. And in spite of that influence, significantly stronger performances by the DAX and NIKKEI encouraged by ECB and BoJ aggressive Quantitative Easing programs is a testament to that. DAX actually Closed at new highs on Friday, and both it and the NIKKEI are only nearing aggressive up trend support this week.
As discussed prior to last Thursday’s ECB press conference, the effect on various asset classes of aggressive central bank QE is all coming down to the actual implementation of the ECB’s far more aggressive than previously expected QE. Since the January 22nd announcement of that effort the markets have responded in a most predictable manner, and that has continued on ECB confirmation of the imminent start of the actual program. And once again avoiding any broader ‘macro’ discussion, we devote today’s post to the clear psychological and trend implications of that program and the BoJ equivalent.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) a hint of the key factors noted above that are more extensively explored in the full video along with how much the global data has still been weak on balance. It also notes the slippage in the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and that Thursday is likely the key data releases day this week.
Video Timeline: It moves on to MARCH S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:15 (with focus on the JUNE BUND FUTURE at 16:30) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 19:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:30 and ASIA at 30:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 34:00 and a return to DECEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 37:20 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss extended background factors and especially the broader technical trend context of the expiration rollover of the Bund future along with the highly aggressive foreign exchange trends, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/03/11 Concise Non-Video Comment (early)
2015/03/11 Concise Non-Video Comment (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
CONCISE COMMENT (Non-Video): Wednesday, March 11, 2015 (early)
Tuesday’s TrendView Global View video analysis and the General Update Market Observations from after the US Close (including many observations on longer term foreign exchange trend tendencies) remain the relevant assessment. As noted from the middle of last week, it seems like the battle between various central bank regimes has become the major influence. It is apparent that accelerated QE in Europe and Japan are having a very constructive effect on their equity markets without bothering their government bond markets to any significant degree. And in spite of the still accommodative Fed view from Fed Chair Yellen’s two day Congressional testimony and Q&A two weeks ago, it has failed to remain the sort of supportive factor seen during the Fed’s previous active QE phase.
▪ This difference between aggressive central bank QE and mere accommodative rate outlook was highlighted last week. The stronger performances by the DAX and NIKKEI encouraged by the respective ECB and BoJ aggressive Quantitative Easing programs versus the S&P 500 and FTSE indices is striking. Especially with Greek Debt Agreement concern now addressed for the near term, the DAX is exhibiting a significant degree of ‘catch up’ with its US cousins. It had been lagging ever since the Russia-Ukraine problems first surfaced in the middle of last year. While there might be other drags which come along to deter further strength, for now DAX and the NIKKEI appear to be well supported while the US and UK are troubled. Of course, in the case of the US this is now exacerbated by the aggressive strength of the US dollar. For the US equities this is a classic case of ‘good news is bad news’, as was amply reflected in the extended response of the various equities, govvies and also foreign exchange to last Friday’s US Employment report.
▪ This is reinforced by the weakness of the US and UK govvies that have only bounced in the wake of what appears to be a potential for extended US and UK equities weakness. Possibly there is some sense that along with the strength of the US dollar this will temper any desire for the FOMC statement next Wednesday to remove the key term ‘patience’. We shall see.
Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the concise trend and background discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options and join us.
Read more...