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2015/03/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

March 26, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/03/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, March 26, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

While the “QE Life” indications on continued Fed accommodation along with the more aggressive QE programs in Germany and Japan were a prominent feature in last week’s mutual equities and govvies rally, it seems to not be supportive into the weak US data this week. Why might this be? The bottom line is that QE alone was never going to reinvigorate the major developed economies. As each of their central bankers have noted all along the way (more forcefully from the ECB and BoJ with less critical emphasis from the Fed), major economic and tax reform is also necessary.

This had been a theme we mentioned repeatedly throughout last year, culminating in dual postings in January on “It’s the Lack of Reform, Stupid (Parts 1 & 2)” on the 19th and 24th. As we had noted extensively last year as well, the political class has treated all of the central bank QE as a gift, making their life easier by allowing them to avoid hard choices involved in meaningful reforms. Are we finally seeing the endgame of that insouciance by the political class? Possibly. All we know for now is the June S&P 500 future is back below the key technical supports aligned with last week’s FOMC announcement of much greater accommodation than expected in many quarters. Broader implications are daunting. If the US that led the QE efforts in timing, duration and size is not seeing its economy get into that higher gear six years into the program, what does that mean for the other programs?

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted that while Asian Advance PMI’s were weak, the Euro-zone and US were positive. In fact, the European data has been a bit better of late, and that explains a lot of the recent euro currency improvement. There was also mention of better UK Retail Sales and US Weekly Employment Claims and the pending US Advance Services and Composite PMI. Of course, all this culminates in US GDP on Friday.

It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:00 and intermediate term view at 04:50, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:30 (with a focus on the now somewhat relatively firmer BUND at 13:50) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 15:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:50, jumping over to EUROPE at 18:00 and ASIA at 20:40, followed by the CROSS RATES at 23:30 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, CBI, China, comments, confluence, considerable time, Crude Oil, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, Emerging, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, Home Sales, Housing Starts, IFO, IMF, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, patience, Philly Fed, PMI, Pound, PPI, Putin, QE, RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Sales, Yellen, Yen

2015/03/25 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

March 25, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/03/25 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, March 25, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

The concise nature of our video analysis and comments today is due to Tuesday morning’s Global View video analysis and the General Update Market Observations from after the US Close (including many observations on long-term foreign exchange trends’ tendencies and critical equities and govvies ideas) remain the relevant assessment. As revisited yesterday, in the wake of the Fed’s commitment to continued accommodation, “It’s a QE Life.” (a reference to the musical Annie’s famous song “It’s a Hard Knock Life” about life in an orphanage.) Or at least it is supposed to be. We know the central banks certainly don’t markets (especially equities) to feel orphaned because global economic recoveries have been very lackluster since the 2008-2009 Crisis. And in spite of some selective and temporary setbacks (like DAX on the current round of Greek melodrama), equities have indeed remained firm-to-strong overall.

Yet in spite of Yellen & Co. seeming to reinstitute that classical ‘bad news is good news’ equities psychology, there is always a question of how much bad news can indeed remain ‘good news’? And serial weak news in the US of late is straining assumptions surrounding the degree to which central banks can indeed ‘do it all’ when it comes to reinvigorating economies and ultimately supporting equity markets. The latest weak data in the US (even allowing there have been some bright spots) is this morning’s Durable Goods Orders.

Expectations for mild positives were shattered by the really dismal -1.40% headline and even a -0.40% Ex-Transportation figure. While the US equities were steady shortly after its release, one has to wonder just how much more weak data they can take before it really is ‘bad news’? After all, the Fed has been at QE and sustained accommodation for six years. If the US economy is still not going to perform (and that’s with the added stimulus of the recent energy price slide), it will be a bad forward indication for the entire global economy.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted that while Asian Advance PMI’s were weak, the Euro-zone and US were positive. Yet global equities and the US dollar still dislike recent weak data. Reinstituted counterpoint means fixed income likes ‘bad’ data, as always.

It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:50, with only mention of the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:50, video analysis of only the T-NOTE FUTURE at 08:50 with only mention of the other GOVVIES at 12:15 and FOREIGN EXCHANGE at 13:30 with CROSS RATES basically steady performance at 14:50 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 15:05 for a final look.  

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, CBI, China, comments, confluence, considerable time, Crude Oil, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, Emerging, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, Home Sales, Housing Starts, IFO, IMF, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, patience, Philly Fed, PMI, Pound, PPI, Putin, QE, RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Sales, Yellen, Yen

2015/03/24 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

March 24, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/03/24 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, March 24, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

As in Monday’s Concise Comment, “It’s a QE Life.” In the musical ‘Annie’ the famous song “It’s a Hard Knock Life” is all about being in an orphanage. Well the central banks certainly don’t want markets (and especially equities) to feel orphaned just because global economic recoveries are lackluster since the 2008-2009 Crisis. And in spite of some selective and temporary setbacks (like the DAX on the current round of the Greek melodrama), equities have indeed remained firm-to-strong overall.

It is no secret that a significant focus had been placed on the ‘patience’ language removal from the FOMC statement. Yet as noted in last Wednesday morning’s pre-FOMC Concise Comment, even as the Fed removed the allegedly critical ‘patience’ from its statement, it respected recent weakness of US and global economic data in substituting something which was just as dovish. That was both the rightful downgrade of their projections for future growth and inflation, and how they were going to maintain a cautionary approach.

Serial (mostly) weak data out of the US as well as other global centers have reinforced the enlightened, and necessary, continued Fed accommodation. Late last week even US Philly Fed and Canadian Retail Sales figures were quite a bit weaker than expected; as were most of the data this week outside of Euro-zone Advance PMI’s. Of course, the equities responded with a generally strong trend, even as that has not weighed on fixed income. Yellen & Co. have reinstituted the ‘bad news is good news’ equities psychology for now.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted that while US CPI came in as expected, it is still very low. There was also mention of the US Advance Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales and Richmond Fed Index still pending at the time of the video analysis recording.

It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:10 and intermediate term view at 05:10, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:00 (with a focus on the now somewhat relatively weaker BUND at 15:40) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:20 and ASIA at 26:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:00 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 33:10 for a final look and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss some of the futures expiration rollover factors and especially the shift to a recovery in the euro currency, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, CBI, China, comments, confluence, considerable time, Crude Oil, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, Emerging, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, Home Sales, Housing Starts, IFO, IMF, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, patience, Philly Fed, PMI, Pound, PPI, Putin, QE, RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Sales, Yellen, Yen

2015/03/23 Concise Non-Video Comment (early)

March 23, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/03/18 Concise Non-Video Comment (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

CONCISE COMMENT (Non-Video): Monday, March 23, 2015 (early)

Concise Comment: ‘It’s a QE Life’        

Thursday’s TrendView Global View video analysis and the General Update Market Observations from after the US Close (including many views on the interim fixed income trends into the March futures expiration and longer-term foreign exchange trend tendencies) remain the relevant view and clear trend assessment into today. While that was augmented by the Concise Highlights video analysis of only the S&P 500 future and brief additional comment on Friday, the trend views remain nominally friendly to equities, very friendly fixed income (at least compared to the potential FOMC influence from last Wednesday) and still bullish overall US dollar view in spite of the current reaction.

In the musical ‘Annie’ the famous song “It’s a Hard Knock Life” is all about being in an orphanage. Well the central banks certainly don’t want markets (especially the equities) to feel orphaned just because global economic recoveries are as lackluster as they’ve been since the 2008-2009 Crisis. The upward thrust of the arrow in the graphic represents what it is like financially (if not on a grass roots level) when “It’s a QE Life.”

It is no secret that a significant focus had been placed on whether the ‘patience’ language was going to be removed from the FOMC statement. Yet as noted in last Wednesday morning’s pre-FOMC Concise Comment, even as the Fed removed the allegedly critical ‘patience’ from its statement, it respected recent weakness of US and global economic data in substituting something which was just as dovish. That was two-fold. It was both the rightful downgrade of their projections for future growth and inflation, and how they were going to remain cautionary in their implementation of policy in spite of the removal of ‘patience’. As Chair Yellen noted in her press conference, nobody should imagine for a moment that translated into impatience, and “Our policy needs to be data dependent.”

Serial (mostly) weak data out of the US as well as other global centers have reinforced the enlightened, and necessary, continued Fed accommodation. Late last week even US Philly Fed and Canadian Retail Sales figures were quite a bit weaker than expected. The latter mirrors the US, and as such is a concern for all of North America. So how did the equities respond? Well, they headed higher of course, confirming Yellen & Co. have done a great job of reinstituting the ‘bad news is good news’ equities psychology for now.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options and join us. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the Extended Trend Assessment.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, China, considerable time, DAX, Draghi, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, govvies, inflation, macro, NIKKEI, patience, Philly, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, TREND, US dollar, Yellen

2015/03/20 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

March 20, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/03/20 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, March 20, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

The concise nature of our video analysis and comments today is due to Thursday morning’s Global View video analysis and the General Update Market Observations from after the US Close (including many observations on longer term foreign exchange trend tendencies) remain the relevant assessment. As noted yesterday, it is mostly as we suspected on the Fed removing the critical ‘patience’ from its statement, yet respecting recent weakness of US and global economic data in substituting something which was just as dovish. In this case that was two-fold. It was both the rightful downgrade of their projections for future growth and inflation, and how they were going to remain cautionary in their implementation of policy in spite of the removal of ‘patience’. In other words, nobody should imagine that translated into impatience. At one point in the press conference Chair Yellen said it best: “Our policy needs to be data dependent.” And that is showing up in markets today.

Serial weak data out of yesterday in the US (especially the subsets of the Philly Fed Index) have been reinforced by weakish data out of Asia and Europe, and especially extremely weak Canadian Retail Sales figures. That mirrors what we saw in the US, and as such is a concern for all of North America. So how do the equities respond? Well, they headed sharply higher of course in overnight trading, even strengthening further in the US after the Canadian figures. It would seem that Yellen & Co. have done a great job of reinstituting the ‘bad news is good news’ equities psychology for now. Of course, that is likely working so well due to the still aggressive QE by the ECB and BoJ. Nonetheless, the US equities are back up into more critical ground near their recent all-time highs. It will be interesting to see how they perform into any further weak data, especially with other equities also now stretched against more extended oscillator resistances or key historic levels.   

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) review of some of the factors noted above along with the return to serial weak data out of Asia and Europe extending even into Canada. It also notes there are no US economic data releases today.

It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:15 and intermediate term at 04:30, with only mention of the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, GOVVIES and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 07:00, and FOREIGN EXCHANGE at 07:20 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 08:00 for a final look.  

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, China, comments, confluence, considerable time, Crude Oil, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, ECB, economic, Emerging, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, Housing Starts, IMF, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, patience, Philly, PMI, Pound, PPI, Putin, QE, RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Sales, Yellen, Yen
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