2015/03/25 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, March 25, 2015 (early)
The concise nature of our video analysis and comments today is due to Tuesday morning’s Global View video analysis and the General Update Market Observations from after the US Close (including many observations on long-term foreign exchange trends’ tendencies and critical equities and govvies ideas) remain the relevant assessment. As revisited yesterday, in the wake of the Fed’s commitment to continued accommodation, “It’s a QE Life.” (a reference to the musical Annie’s famous song “It’s a Hard Knock Life” about life in an orphanage.) Or at least it is supposed to be. We know the central banks certainly don’t markets (especially equities) to feel orphaned because global economic recoveries have been very lackluster since the 2008-2009 Crisis. And in spite of some selective and temporary setbacks (like DAX on the current round of Greek melodrama), equities have indeed remained firm-to-strong overall.
Yet in spite of Yellen & Co. seeming to reinstitute that classical ‘bad news is good news’ equities psychology, there is always a question of how much bad news can indeed remain ‘good news’? And serial weak news in the US of late is straining assumptions surrounding the degree to which central banks can indeed ‘do it all’ when it comes to reinvigorating economies and ultimately supporting equity markets. The latest weak data in the US (even allowing there have been some bright spots) is this morning’s Durable Goods Orders.
Expectations for mild positives were shattered by the really dismal -1.40% headline and even a -0.40% Ex-Transportation figure. While the US equities were steady shortly after its release, one has to wonder just how much more weak data they can take before it really is ‘bad news’? After all, the Fed has been at QE and sustained accommodation for six years. If the US economy is still not going to perform (and that’s with the added stimulus of the recent energy price slide), it will be a bad forward indication for the entire global economy.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted that while Asian Advance PMI’s were weak, the Euro-zone and US were positive. Yet global equities and the US dollar still dislike recent weak data. Reinstituted counterpoint means fixed income likes ‘bad’ data, as always.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 05:50, with only mention of the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:50, video analysis of only the T-NOTE FUTURE at 08:50 with only mention of the other GOVVIES at 12:15 and FOREIGN EXCHANGE at 13:30 with CROSS RATES basically steady performance at 14:50 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 15:05 for a final look.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/03/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/03/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, March 26, 2015 (early)
While the “QE Life” indications on continued Fed accommodation along with the more aggressive QE programs in Germany and Japan were a prominent feature in last week’s mutual equities and govvies rally, it seems to not be supportive into the weak US data this week. Why might this be? The bottom line is that QE alone was never going to reinvigorate the major developed economies. As each of their central bankers have noted all along the way (more forcefully from the ECB and BoJ with less critical emphasis from the Fed), major economic and tax reform is also necessary.
This had been a theme we mentioned repeatedly throughout last year, culminating in dual postings in January on “It’s the Lack of Reform, Stupid (Parts 1 & 2)” on the 19th and 24th. As we had noted extensively last year as well, the political class has treated all of the central bank QE as a gift, making their life easier by allowing them to avoid hard choices involved in meaningful reforms. Are we finally seeing the endgame of that insouciance by the political class? Possibly. All we know for now is the June S&P 500 future is back below the key technical supports aligned with last week’s FOMC announcement of much greater accommodation than expected in many quarters. Broader implications are daunting. If the US that led the QE efforts in timing, duration and size is not seeing its economy get into that higher gear six years into the program, what does that mean for the other programs?
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted that while Asian Advance PMI’s were weak, the Euro-zone and US were positive. In fact, the European data has been a bit better of late, and that explains a lot of the recent euro currency improvement. There was also mention of better UK Retail Sales and US Weekly Employment Claims and the pending US Advance Services and Composite PMI. Of course, all this culminates in US GDP on Friday.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:00 and intermediate term view at 04:50, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:30 (with a focus on the now somewhat relatively firmer BUND at 13:50) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 15:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:50, jumping over to EUROPE at 18:00 and ASIA at 20:40, followed by the CROSS RATES at 23:30 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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