2015/04/01 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, April 1, 2015 (early)
Concise Highlights
As noted in yesterday morning’s Global View video analysis (still the extended trend view along with the post-US Close Market Observations), trend views remain very problematic toward US equities, especially after Tuesday’s better than expected Consumer Confidence did not help them rally back above the early weakness back below the still very important June S&P 500 future 2,075-78 range. While the data did bring some improvement after Tuesday’s gap lower opening, that was only back to the low end of that range prior to failing all the way down to 2,060-58 once again later in the day. And the aftermarket trading brought an immediate plop to 2,040-36 prior to recovering. The indication is for some sort of broader psychological weakness.
Why might this be? Well, it could be the very reason we have revisited of late in the wake of the more dovish than expected FOMC two weeks ago. While the June S&P 500 future survived slippage back below the pre-FOMC announcement levels and was stronger again Monday morning, Tuesday’s weakness in the wake of better than expected global data is at the least disappointing. It still leaves a question over whether the US equities can finally push more convincingly to new highs or will continue to remain vulnerable by stalling in their current range? And a similar sort of psychology is apparent in the US dollar reaction that feels troubling at times yet has actually held up pretty well.
Regarding the economic data, it is of note that while there have been some bright spots in the US (like Monday’s Pending Home Sales), the improvement has been in Europe and the UK (even if that has meant ‘less bad than expected’ in some cases.) Yet other currencies are slipping again versus the greenback, and the govvies are keeping the bid. We also remind everyone once again the US Employment report will still be released Friday (more in Monday’s Concise Comment and Tuesday’s General Update Market Observations.)
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above along with the weak ADP Employment report that is fomenting the return to near term US equities weakness. It also noted positive global Manufacturing PMI’s have now been offset by the weak ADP number as we await the US Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 01:40 and intermediate term at 05:15, with only mention of the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES at 08:30 and FOREIGN EXCHANGE at 11:00 with CROSS RATES basically steady prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 13:00 for a final look.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/04/02 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/04/02 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, April 2, 2015 (early)
Trend views remain problematic toward equities, especially after slight improvement in European data and US equities holding action below some key supports for the past few weeks while govvies like the still weakish data. And that is significantly reinforced by the influence of the quite a bit more dovish than expected FOMC two weeks ago. In fact, the fact that the June S&P 500 future has survived slippage back below the pre-FOMC announcement levels and was stronger again Monday morning was impressive. Yet that was short-lived, and still leaves a question over whether the US equities can finally push more convincingly to new highs or will continue to remain vulnerable by stalling in their current range? And a similar sort of psychology is apparent in the US dollar reaction that feels troubling at times yet has actually held up pretty well.
And as we expected, this week saw intense informational influences. Unique calendar and critical trend confluence collisions were further exacerbated by geopolitical events. There is the expanding armed conflict in the Middle East, and that plays right into nuclear program negotiations between P5+1 (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) and Iran. Even outside of that this has been a classical ‘hybrid’ week, including both all of the end of month data for March along with a good deal of top-of-the-month data for April. And while tomorrow is Good Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will still release US Employment data. The selective abbreviated US derivatives trading sessions run right into a 3-day weekend in the US and 4-day weekends (including Easter Monday) in Australia, Europe and the UK. Really benighted economic data release.
Regarding the economic data, it is of note that while there have been some bright spots in the US (like Monday’s Pending Home Sales), the improvement has been in Europe and the UK (even if that has meant ‘less bad than expected’ in some cases.) Yet the lack of any inflation implication means the govvies have the bid back, and are pushing up through key resistances once again. We wonder how much of that will survive the US Employment release, and how that might affect the US dollar’s modest renewed strength?
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) brief mention of some of the factors noted above. It also noted the lack of overseas data this morning into the US Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, ISM New York and Factory Orders as the final data of the week… except of course for the US Employment report tomorrow, on Good Friday.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:00 and intermediate term view at 04:45, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:10, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:00 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 18:40. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:00 and ASIA at 27:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:30 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 33:20. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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