2015/05/11 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, May 11, 2015 (early)
Global View: All Markets
Back to a Global View after the highly volatile week last week. While we have much more on technical trend implications in the video (and will expand that in the Market Observations after today’s US Close), it is important to once again note something which we do not cover as part of our regular videos and write-ups: stronger than expected energy prices that began to abate to a degree last week. Yet it will still be important to see whether the NYMEX Crude Oil future push above 58.00 area two weeks ago can be maintained. If so, it may extend the rally to the 67.00 area. Yet if it fails back below that area, it may slide at least back down into the low 50.00 area.
Of course, that is more important than usual due to the recent energy market rally being one of the additional weights on govvies. While stronger energy prices are not necessarily good for overall economic activity either, it has obviously been a more negative factor for headline inflation sensitive govvies. Especially in the wake of Friday’s return to stronger US Employment data, it is interesting that equities are respecting their higher resistance levels for now. That consideration is reinforced by the curious lack of equities strength on the weekend Peoples Bank of China 1-year Lending Rate 25 basis point rate cut to 3.10%. And the govvies maintained their rebound from Thursday’s lows on Friday; likely a sign of just how oversold they were on the recent sustained break; especially Bunds.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above. It is also worth noting that the data definitely shifted back to neutral last week from previous general weakness. Global services PMI’s substantially offset any of the weakness in Manufacturing. Yet even with the strong US Employment report headline Nonfarm Payrolls number there was still a return to weaker than expected Hourly Earnings. That is not a good sign, and possibly the reason for the govvies bid.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:20, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:30 (with a focus on the BUND at 15:00) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:40 and ASIA at 26:20, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:40 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:30. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to review some fundamental factors as well as extended technical developments, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/05/12 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2015/05/12 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, May 12, 2015 (early)
Concise this morning because the foreign exchange trends are still in line with Monday’s Global View full video and initial section technical trend discussion. That said, the US Dollar Index and EUR/USD is where the flux is on the euro having gone from weak sister to strong sister. The other currencies are still within previously noted techncial bounds, where the only exception is the British pound obviously demonstrating post-election strength on the assumption of economic and business friendly policies being continued by the triumphant Tories.
While there is much more on technical trend implications in the video, we are going to open with a brief technical summary again as well in the wake of the equities failures at resistances again yesterday and the govvies under pressure as weak sister Bund leads the way lower again. It is once again important to note something which we do not cover as part of our regular videos and write-ups: stronger than expected energy prices. We still see that as not necessarily good for overall economic activity, yet it has obviously been a negative factor for inflation sensitive govvies. It remains important to see whether NYMEX Crude Oil future’s push above 58.00 area two weeks ago can be maintained. If so, it may extend the rally to the 67.00 area. If it fails, it may slide at least back down into the low 50.00 area. That may be a key for govvies, and also equities now that rates are an issue.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above. It is also worth noting that the data definitely shifted back to neutral last week from previous general weakness. Global services PMI’s substantially offset any of the weakness in Manufacturing. Yet even with the strong US Employment report headline Nonfarm Payrolls number there was still a return to weaker than expected Hourly Earnings. That is not a good sign, and possibly the reason for the govvies holding the bid on Friday, even if that has crumbled early this week. There is also another key failure: the Chinese rate cut that did not seem to assist equities at all this week.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:15 and intermediate term at 04:15, and OTHER EQUITIES at 06:45, leading into the full GOVVIES review at 13:00 (with a concentration on the very critical activity in the BUND from 17:15) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 20:15. Foreign exchange is only mentioned today, beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:00 and Europe at 21:30 with ASIA at 22:10 and CROSS RATES at 22:40 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 23:00 for a final look and further comment.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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