2015/05/19 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, May 19, 2015 (early)
Global View: All Markets
Another Global View after the highly volatile week last week leading into a very volatile session today after a sort of quiet start to the week. This is as we suspected might be the case due to the fundamental influence flow this week. Yet it is more pronounced than we might have expected. In addition to the data remaining as weak as we suspected it might, that had been offset to the benefit of equities, govvies and the US dollar by the announcement this morning from the ECB’s Cœuré that it would accelerate its QE program asset purchases in the near term to adjust for typically lower European government bond issuance into the summer. Never mind this is simply a technical adjustment to what will still be an average monthly purchase of €60 billion.
Let the equities hear about any sort of acceleration in Quantitative Easing and they cannot help but surge in the near term. And in this case the government bonds also like it. No secret that the Bund likes it most of all. That is due to not only it being one of the primary bonds affected by this program, but also that (as opposed to the US) the free float of Euro-zone govvies is low enough for the ECB program to actually affect (i.e. squeeze) the value of the government bonds. The US dollar had a similar knee-jerk positive response to the indication of a greater than expected Euro-zone liquidity infusion in the near term.
Once again, forget that the recent weakness of the greenback has been as much on the weaker than expected US data since the beginning of the second quarter. If it rallied on the ECB QE adjustment, why are the pound, Australian dollar and the yen also weak? Well, maybe it is because of all of their relatively weak data as well… like UK PPI lapsing into negative ground today. And while characterized as a technical adjustment, how happy was ECB to accelerate its QE due to a return of weak economic data, like today’s ZEW?
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above. It is also worth noting the data shifted back to weak last week. Especially in the US the late week data was roundly disappointing. That said, since the video was recorded this morning’s US Housing Starts came in much better than expected. However, even after the ECB shift, the more major influences are yet to come this week.
It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 05:55, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 13:30 (with a focus on the BUND at 17:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 21:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 24:45, jumping over to EUROPE at 28:00 and ASIA at 31:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 33:45 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 36:00. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to review some ad hoc fundamental factors as well as extended technical developments, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/05/20 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2015/05/20 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, May 20, 2015 (early)
Only Concise Highlights on the equities divergent activity seemed warranted after yesterday’s very extensive Global View of continued volatile activity in the other asset classes (and post-US Close write-up for all markets.) Tuesday’s volatility was as we suspected might due to how the fundamental influences are flowing this week. Yet even so it was more pronounced than we might have expected due to the additional influence of the indication yesterday morning from ECB’s Cœuré that it would accelerate its QE program asset purchases in the near term. Never mind this is simply a technical adjustment to typically lower European government bond issuance into the summer, and will still result in average monthly purchases of €60 billion.
Let the equities hear about any sort of acceleration in Quantitative Easing and they cannot help but surge in the near term. And in this case the government bonds also liked it. However, govvies then got a rude surprise from much better than expected US Housing Starts and Building Permits data yesterday morning. That said, their rapid selloff was only to lower supports; and that still leaves us feeling they have stabilized for now after the previous mini-debacle began to quiet down last week. And all along the way, the US dollar has been assisted by the greater Euro-zone liquidity infusion, even against the other currencies as well as the euro. It must be those Housing Starts numbers.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above. It is also worth noting the data shifted back to strong today out of both Japan and European spite of the Bank of England meeting minutes remaining quite dovish in our view. Now we await the FOMC meeting minutes at 13:00 CDT today. And even those are just the precursors to much more prominent data like the global Advance PMI’s Thursday, and central bank influence from Friday’s ECB conference.
It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:15 and intermediate term at 06:30 with OTHER EQUITIES from 08:15, leading to only mention of GOVVIES at 14:20 (with mention of the very critical activity in the BUND from 15:45) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 17:00. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned today (after Tuesday’s full video analysis and post-US Close Market Observations write-up), beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:45 and Europe at 18:30 with ASIA at 19:20 and CROSS RATES at 20:00 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 20:30 for a final look and further comment.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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