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2015/05/28 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

May 28, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/05/28 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, May 28, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

Only Concise Highlights on the S&P 500 (with mention of the other equities activity) and govvies seems warranted after Tuesday’s very extensive Global View and the Wednesday Concise Highlights reviewed other equities and govvies. While foreign exchange followed through on our assessment of overall US Dollar Index strength, that has only hit targets set out in Tuesday’s Global View and reacted modestly from them for now. Even the yen falling to a new current trend low that finally hit the USD/JPY major Falling Wedge pattern 124.16 Objective (incredibly signaled on the February 2012 UP Break above 77.20) must be reassessed in light of that. Which is not to say foreign exchange is not interesting right now. Yet as opposed to the potential trend reversal in US equities and resilience of the govvies in the face of upbeat economic data, currencies have merely continued along the path to their next critical thresholds.

The bottom line is that the sluggish nature of last week’s extension of the US equities rally was of some concern. That was on what should have been a fresh UP Break in the June S&P 500 future above the previous 2,119 all-time high. As that should have stimulated a more aggressive push up to higher resistances, it seemed vulnerable even if the burden of proof remained on bears to knock it back below key areas. And even though Tuesday’s opening saw it drop back below that previous 2,119 all-time high and quickly slip below previously violated late April 2,112-15 topping resistance, Wednesday’s strong recovery brings that into question again. The burden of proof has shifted back to the bears for now.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which data all seemed to improve from the middle of last week. Yet the weaker Japanese Retail Trade and UK GDP (and subsets) this morning does seem to be weighing a bit on the equities and boosting govvies. It also notes that more major end-of-month like US GDP data is still pending into Friday.

It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 06:40 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 09:30, leading to GOVVIES at 10:45 (with the very critical BUND from 13:45) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:45. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned (after Tuesday’s full analysis), with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:45, Europe at 18:10, ASIA at 18:45 and CROSS RATES at 19:30 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 19:40 for a final look.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, ADP, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, China, Coeure, comments, confluence, Construction Spending, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Factory Orders, Fed, Fed-speak, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Grexit, IMF, import, Indicators, Industrial, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, KC, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, minutes, NIKKEI, oil, PBOC, Philly, PMI, Pound, Putin, QE, RBA, reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, risk-off, risk-on, RRR, S&P 500, Sales, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Trade, Yellen, Yen

2015/05/27 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

May 27, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/05/27 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, May 27, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

Only Concise Highlights on the equities activity and govvies seems warranted after Tuesday’s very extensive Global View of volatility in those two while foreign exchange followed through on our previous assessment of overall US Dollar Index strength. Which is not to say the foreign exchange is not interesting right now. Yet as opposed to the potential trend reversal in US equities and resilience of the govvies in the face of upbeat economic data, the currencies are merely continuing along the path we had suggested to their next critical thresholds.

The bottom line is that the sluggish nature of last week’s extension of the US equities rally was of some concern. That was on what should have been a fresh UP Break in the June S&P 500 future above the previous 2,119 all-time high. As that should have stimulated a more aggressive push up to higher resistances, it seemed vulnerable even if the burden of proof remained on the bears to knock it back below the key areas. As yesterday’s opening saw it drop back below that previous 2,119 all-time high and quickly slip below previously overrun 2,112-15 topping resistance from late April, the bears suddenly had the proof.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which data all seemed to improve from the middle of last week. Yet speeches by Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen on Friday seemed to still indicate US and Euro-zone recoveries were weaker than they would like. It also notes that the more major end-of-month data is pending on Thursday into Friday.

It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 04:45 with OTHER EQUITIES from 06:45, leading to GOVVIES at 11:00 (with the very critical BUND from 14:15) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 17:20. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned (after Tuesday’s full analysis), with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:45, Europe at 18:15, ASIA at 19:00 and CROSS RATES at 20:00 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 20:20 for a final look.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, ADP, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, China, Coeure, comments, confluence, Construction Spending, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Factory Orders, Fed, Fed-speak, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Grexit, IMF, import, Indicators, Industrial, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, KC, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, minutes, NIKKEI, oil, PBOC, Philly, PMI, Pound, Putin, QE, RBA, reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, risk-off, risk-on, RRR, S&P 500, Sales, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Trade, Yellen, Yen

2015/05/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

May 26, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/05/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, May 26, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

Welcome back for most of you from the holiday weekend. A Global View was obviously necessary today after the much more subdued week last week leading into very critical activity this week. It is especially the case for the lower indications for US equities which were so stagnant on what should have been a fresh UP Break in the June S&P 500 future above the previous 2,119 all-time high. As that should have stimulated a more aggressive push up to higher resistances instead of the stubborn holding against the old high, it had a very weak feeling at the new high. And this is important due to failed UP Breaks often being the way bull markets top out, rather than any sort of sharp reversal from an aggressive new high.

And we also begin today’s discussion with that because this US weakness comes in the wake of what should have been constructive news. While Friday’s US CPI being a bit stronger than expected was a bit of a drag due to potential Fed rate hike implications, the US equities have also responded badly to this morning’s Durable Goods Orders report. Failure on positive news is also a classical earmark of markets that are topping out. However, even though other more telling influences might also be weighing on equities at present (weak US Retail Sales, Greek woes coming back to the forefront, etc.), the burden of proof remains on the bears. Can they not only get the June S&P 500 future to drop back below that previous 2,119 all-time high, but also back below the overrun 2,112-15 topping resistance from late April? If so, it might be a reversal. If not, this remains a bull trend.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which data seemed to improve on Friday into Monday’s Japanese Trade numbers. Yet much is still to be taken from speeches Friday from Mario Draghi (structural reform) and Janet Yellen (data driven Fed.) And as we have noted previous, that is why the early Q2 US data remains to incredibly critical.

It moves on to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:15 and intermediate term view at 04:40, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:40 (with a focus on the BUND at 14:55) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 18:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:30, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:50 and ASIA at 25:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:20 and a return to JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, ADP, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, China, Coeure, comments, confluence, Construction Spending, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Factory Orders, Fed, Fed-speak, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Grexit, IMF, import, Indicators, Industrial, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, KC, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, minutes, NIKKEI, oil, PBOC, Philly, PMI, Pound, Putin, QE, RBA, reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, risk-off, risk-on, RRR, S&P 500, Sales, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Trade, Yellen, Yen

2015/05/22 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

May 22, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/05/22 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, May 22, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

Only Concise Highlights on the equities activity seemed warranted after yesterday’s very extensive Global View of continued volatile activity in the other asset classes on Thursday. Both govvies and foreign exchange reaction to data and central bank meeting minutes from Wednesday into yesterday were extensively reviewed yesterday, and not much has changed on the significant trend evolution. And the equities response to this morning’s slightly hotter than expected headline US CPI is very interesting after a week of stalling slightly into a new high by the US equities.

And while the sluggish nature of that extension is of some concern, the burden of proof remains on the bears to knock the US equities back into the ranges from which they Broke UP into this week. If so, then some sort of more major failure might be indicated. Yet if the US equities continue to hold against previous highs and heavier congestion around the top of the ranges, then they remain bullish regardless of how grudging the rally may be.

And while all of the equities have remained stronger than not in spite of recent setbacks, there was important communication on a key theme this morning: ECB President Draghi was once again able to expound on the importance of ‘structural reform’ to ensure that all of the major Quantitative Easing efforts are not wasted. As we have noted (pointedly at times) for over a year now, monetary accommodation alone does not seem sufficient to reinvigorate robust growth. Unless the political class takes on the tough decisions necessary to reform tax, labor, regulation and other reforms, it may still all end badly.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which data all seemed to improve on Wednesday right into dovish BoE and FOMC meeting minutes. However, Thursday’s global PMI’s were only mixed and all US data other than Leading Indicators was weak. It is also worth noting Japanese data is finally improving along with the outlook from the BoJ. Yet we await a key speech from Fed Chair Yellen at 12:00 CDT that may be quite critical.

It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:00 with OTHER EQUITIES from 07:20, leading to only mention of GOVVIES at 13:15 (with the very critical BUND from 14:15) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:00. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned (after Thursday’s full analysis), with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 15:30, Europe at 16:30, ASIA at 18:15 and CROSS RATES at 19:45 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 20:30 for a final look.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, ADP, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, China, Coeure, comments, confluence, Construction Spending, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, ECB, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Factory Orders, Fed, Fed-speak, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Grexit, IMF, import, Indicators, Industrial, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, KC, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, minutes, NIKKEI, oil, PBOC, Philly, PMI, Pound, Putin, QE, RBA, reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, risk-off, risk-on, RRR, S&P 500, Sales, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Trade, Yellen, Yen

2015/05/21 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

May 21, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/05/21 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, May 21, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights  

Concise Highlights on the govvies and foreign exchange follow yesterday’s review of the equities, which remain pretty much the same. Both govvies and foreign exchange are also more interesting in the wake of the most recent data and the release of major central bank meeting minutes from yesterday into this morning. And it is of note that both the BoE and FOMC were indeed as dovish as all the previous statements and communications from everyone (except a few rate hawks) would suggest.    

Another interesting aspect was this morning’s ECB meeting details (not necessarily the full minutes like the Fed and BoE) release that pointed up their satisfaction with the initial impact of their QE program. And why not? Look at the response of the DAX for the first part of this year, and even Tuesday’s rebound from recent weakness on the suggestion they would accelerate their QE program in the near term. That is to avoid a typically low issuance period into the summer. Never mind this is simply a technical adjustment, and will still result in the average monthly purchases of €60 billion that is confirmed in the meeting details. The equities and govvies still rallied on that news.

Yet the somewhat better data has presented a problem for the govvies in the near term. That was most apparent in the rude surprise from much better than expected US Housing Starts and Building Permits Tuesday morning. That is now back in the wake of the better than expected UK Retail Sales this morning as we head toward important US data on the Advance Manufacturing PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Leading Indicators and the Philly and KC Fed Indices throughout this morning. And there are more global impacts on Friday.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above. It is also worth noting the data shifted back to strong this week except for a couple of key items like the Chinese Advance Manufacturing PMI that only improved to 49.10 versus a 49.30 expectation. And the weakness in both German Advance PMI’s even as French Manufacturing strengthened left the overall Euro-zone PMI weaker.

It moves on to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 06:30 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 08:20, leading to GOVVIES at 09:20 (with mention of the very critical activity in the BUND from 12:15) and only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:00. Foreign exchange begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:00 and Europe at 17:45 with ASIA at 21:10 and CROSS RATES at 24:00 prior to returning to the JUNE S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 27:10 for a final look and further comment.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, ADP, analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, China, Coeure, comments, confluence, Construction Spending, cut, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, ECB, economic, election, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Factory Orders, Fed, Fed-speak, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Grexit, IMF, import, Indicators, Industrial, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, KC, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, minutes, NIKKEI, oil, PBOC, Philly, PMI, Pound, Putin, QE, RBA, reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, risk-off, risk-on, RRR, S&P 500, Sales, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Wholesale Trade, Yellen, Yen
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