2015/06/12 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, June 12, 2015 (early)
Concise Highlights
Only Concise Highlights on the June S&P 500 future today along with mention of the other equities and the govvies leading to a full foreign exchange review this morning. That is because Thursday’s video on the equities basing out since Wednesday and the interesting firm response of the govvies to a better than expected US Retail Sales report as well still stands as the key analysis in those areas. In fact, the Greek Debt Dilemma becoming more contentious at the end of this week has bolstered the govvies this morning after early slippage, and weighed on the equities once again Yet the current shifts in those areas are very consistent with the recent reversion to the equities liking the stronger economic data, and only a modest upside reaction so far in govvies that have been trending down since late April and have quite a bit of higher resistance.
And in spite of the more downbeat warnings on the fragility of the global economy from various NGO’s (Non-governmental Organizations), the economic indications have improved a bit of late. Will that continue, or is this just a flutter in the wake of the very weak first quarter. We shall see. Yet anyone interested in a review of those cautionary indication from the NGOs can take a look at Tuesday’s exploration of multiple recent projections from the OECD on economies outlook, trade and the global economic outlook.
What we know for now is the failure after the lackluster June S&P 500 future 2,119 UP Break three weeks ago leaves resistance up into that area to somewhat higher levels, it was a bit perverse the equities should sell off on initial broadly improved US economic data and better European psych. Yet it is historically consistent with ‘anticipatory’ psychology on the end of the central bank accommodation cycle. And as we noted yesterday, the govvies response to US Retail Sales was even more interesting. September T-note future is at a 24/32nds discount to lead contract June future as we head into the quarterly expiration next week Friday (June 19th.) As such, its slippage into the 124-24 area is equivalent to the June contract test of important 125-16 support. And in spite of the US Retail Sales figures they are both up ¾ to a full point since early yesterday.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which improved economic data was reinforced by confident economic and inflation missives from last week’s ECB press conference. While the UK and Asia remain weaker, data out of the Euro-zone is a major influence that continues to weigh on the Bund in spite of the current recovery. It also notes today’s Euro-zone Industrial Production data was a bit less positive again on the way into US PPI and Preliminary Michigan Confidence.
It moves on to the S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 04:30 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30 and GOVVIES at 08:30 (with the still very critical BUND from 09:50) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 10:30. Foreign exchange begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 11:40, Europe at 14:15, ASIA at 17:45 and CROSS RATES at 21:00 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 25:30 for a final look.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/06/16 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/06/16 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, June 16, 2015 (early)
Last week’s discussion of the equities coming under pressure and interesting firm response of govvies to a better than expected US Retail Sales report last Thursday has took on some fresh clarity in the wake of the Greek Debt Dilemma rearing its ugly head again late last week. Of course, that has bolstered the govvies for the past few days and weighed on the equities. Yet one of the most interesting aspects that we also note in the video analysis is the degree to which the recovery in the govvies is quite modest so far compared to their recent aggressive down trends.
And the reason for that is not so very hard to figure out. While the Greece Debt Dilemma ostensibly represents more of a crisis at this advanced stage of negotiations than in all the previous months of confrontational exchanges, it is not the whole global economy. That was looking far more dire, or at least disinflationary, earlier this year. Even though Asia seems to still be struggling of late, the more upbeat ECB view at its last meeting and the clear removal of disinflation in Europe has left the govvies more challenged than on previous selloffs in the equities. It will likely take the Greek crisis becoming more radical to foment further equities weakness and govvies strength from the current key levels. Along the way the foreign exchange remains more subdued, with the US Dollar Index slipping back from higher resisitance but only churning quietly into lower supports.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which data that seemed to flip back into strength last week, especially those US Retail Sales numbers. While some other bits have been weaker along the way (especially in Europe reinforcing the euro losing a bit of its secular strength of late), overall the data is improved into a much bigger day on Thursday. But first, all of the markets need to respect whatever the FOMC says on Wednesday.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:45, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:45, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:45 (with a focus on the BUND at 16:30) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 18:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:45, jumping over to EUROPE at 24:45 and ASIA at 26:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:45 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 33:30. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the need to discuss some key background factors, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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