2015/06/30 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

‘Greeced’ Lightning. That’s what equity markets looked like on Monday’s serial sharp intraday selloffs... lightning bolts ratcheting down from the storm in short term bursts. Maybe that was not so surprising in the context of the multiple unknowns cascading into the markets yesterday. Seemingly recalcitrant positions of the EC/IMF/ECB Troika leaders were met with commensurate levels of resistance to agree to their Sunday ‘final’ offer by the Greek government. Compounding factors included the Greek government position that it was going to lobby for a NO vote in this weekend’s referendum on whether the Greek people would disagree and approve the Troika’s position. While the Greek government’s intractable resistance did not leave the Troika any room for compromise, a light at the end of tunnel emerged this morning.       

That is in the form of a Troika offer to review the ‘sustainability’ of Greek debt if the Greeks will agree to the terms presented last Sunday. That will include a commitment from the Greek government to lobby for a YES vote in the referendum. Interesting. The ‘review the sustainability of Greek debt’ is of course code language for revisiting the idea that Greek debt is so overwhelming as to warrant forgiveness of some significant portion of it. It is almost an offer for the Greeks ‘they can’t afford to refuse’. The question for the Troika is…

“What took you so long?” The answer to that is also obvious: they could not make Greece an offer without putting them through significant turmoil as a way to deter other indebted peripheral countries from asking for a renegotiation of their debt. Yet the Greek situation being more extreme has been reviewed by us and others for some time now. Germany has found it easy to forget the major 1953 London Agreement debt forgiveness that allowed its economy to recover so well. (See our October 7, 2014 post for much more on that.)  

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is strong again along with US Housing. That includes an upward revision to UK GDP along with a stronger than expected Consumer Confidence in spite of German Retail Sales disappointment.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 01:45 and intermediate term view at 04:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 05:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 08:15 (with the BUND at 10:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 12:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 15:00, EUROPE at 16:45 and ASIA at 19:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 22:45 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 25:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

2015/05/29 Commentary: Greek turmoil could be worse (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY (Non-Video): Monday, June 29, 2015

Commentary: Greek turmoil could be worse

While we will be providing a full Global View TrendView video analysis after the dust settles on this morning’s Greek Debt Dilemma dislocations, we felt a pointed and timely update on the more telling aspects of the trend evolution this morning was more critical. We will be focusing on the more prominent markets in each asset class, and direct you back to the Market Observations below Thursday’s Global View video analysis (updated early Friday morning) for insights on the others. The fact is that the overall trend assessments have not changed all that radically in the wake of the Greek impact into this morning.

As noted Friday morning, the Greek Debt Dilemma negotiations seemed to be coming to a climax with Greece likely missing this Tuesday's IMF loan repayment deadline. Even with this morning’s selloff, the equities are not behaving too badly in consideration of the talks being summarily halted by the Tsipras government calling for a Greek referendum on the EC/IMF/ECB proposal next Sunday. In spite of all the turmoil for the Greek banking system and other aspects, the US and other equities are only trading around their next key incremental supports after bouncing from lower levels.

The previously discounted September S&P 500 future recovering back above 2,096-2,100 area two weeks ago was impressive. Yet that reinstated support was violated on the weakness last Friday in anticipation of a Greek Debt Dilemma deal failure. Yet even in the face of the Greek failure that has seen it violate next lower support in the 2,090-88 area, it is currently back up above the 2,078-75 range after testing even more major 2,060-58 support. We consider that another retest of the lower of those levels will likely hold any initial probe, and would treat the price activity accordingly.

This is not Lehman Brothers, and the authorities have had more than enough time to ‘ring fence’ the immediate implications for the broader Euro-zone and global economy. The bigger questions over the place of Greece within Europe and whether that includes potential withdrawal from the Euro-zone and EU will wait until later… at least until after the Greek referendum proposed for this coming Sunday. In that regard it is of note that the DAX is only down into its interim 11,200 support after nearing the key lower levels.

That speaks volumes about the degree to which all of the folks who are running around like their hair is on fire may be overestimating the importance of Greece to the European and global economy and financial markets. Keep in mind that this morning’s dislocations are also exacerbated by a long-expected debt payment failure in Puerto Rico as well.   

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options and join us. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the extended trend assessment as well.

Read more...