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2015/07/15 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

July 15, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/07/15 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, July 15, 2015 (early)

150715_SPU_CONCISE_0700Concise Highlights  

Greece influence still normalizing, even if a bit more fraught on further IMF support concerns. While the Chinese stock market had a setback today, that is only a modest reaction after the recent substantial recovery from the late June-early July debacle. It is also impressive on a return to trading for all Chinese stocks after the recent suspensions. This represents a significant cooling down of the previous stresses even if the elimination of the problems remains ‘provisional’. Yet the equities are likely to receive further support over the next two days from Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony and Q&A, and Thursday morning’s (US time) ECB press conference.

After the recent disruptions it is likely both Ms. Yellen and Signore Draghi will be upbeat in their economic views. That is especially so with the ‘provisional’ nature of Greece’s Debt Crisis waning tied into further discussions of how to avoid a near term default next week. They are likely to speak of the overall improvement. And at least in the Euro-zone that appears to be the case, yet with some recent exceptions. As noted yesterday, are other issues that mean the equities may neither be returning to fully bullish tendencies, nor the govvies to more aggressively bearish tendencies: the weakening of the economic data right into the key period that will indicate whether Q2 represents the sort of US economic rebound from a weak Q1 that many are hoping it will be.

As also noted yesterday, not the least of the weaker indications was last Wednesday’s OECD Composite Leading Indicators that was lost in the shuffle of the alternating Agony and Ecstasy of the Greek and Chinese influences. That is reinforced by recent much weaker than expected US Retail Sales Tuesday and UK Employment this morning.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is weak again after the US Employment last Thursday. That includes global Services PMI’s (outside of the UK) and US and Canadian reports Monday. Euro-zone Industrial Production was weak this morning, as was the US Trade Balance even if UK Industrial Production was strong.  

It moves on to the S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:30 and intermediate term at 06:30 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 09:00 and GOVVIES from 10:30 (with BUND comments at 12:00), and limited SHORT MONEY FORWARDS comments at 14:00. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 14:45, Europe at 15:30, ASIA at 16:30 and the almost total lack of change in the CROSS RATES at 18:00 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 18:15 for a final look.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, confluence, Consumer Confidence, CPI, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, ECB, economic, employment, equities, EU, Euro, Euro-zone, Eurogroup, Europe, European Union, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, NFIB, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PMI, Pound, PPI, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, ZEW

2015/07/14 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

July 14, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/07/14 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, July 14, 2015 (early)

150714_SPU_GLOBAL_0740Global View: All Markets  

Greece influence is normalizing a bit, and the Chinese stock market is also seemingly over the worst of the recent debacle. However, as we said in Monday morning’s note, these are ‘provisional’ improvements versus a real indication that equities are back to fully bullish in spite of those two key stressors diminishing a bit. In the case of China it seems that a few missteps notwithstanding the authorities did a credible job of breaking the meltdown momentum. While more will need to be seen once all stocks have returned to active trading, it is stabilized for now.

And the ‘provisional’ nature of the Greek Debt Crisis waning is intrinsic in a process which still requires further legislative approval on both sides, especially in Athens. There are also many on both sides who are not happy with a deal that is indeed a German coup that turns Greece into an economic vassal. And there is another issue that means the equities may neither be returning to fully bullish tendencies, nor the govvies to more aggressively bearish tendencies: the weakening of the economic data right into the key period that will indicate whether Q2 represents the sort of US economic rebound from a weak Q1 that many are hoping it will be. In fact, the global growth story that is supposed to encourage higher equities and higher inflation is in doubt after recent serial weak economic data.

Not the least is last Wednesday’s OECD Composite Leading Indicators - July 2015 that was lost in the shuffle of the alternating Agony and Ecstasy of the Greek and Chinese influences. That is reinforced by a much weaker than expected US Retail Sales report this morning.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which the data has been weaker again. That includes last Friday’s weaker US Wholesale Sales (works with weak Retail Sales this morning) in the face of higher than expected Wholesale Inventories. There were also weak Euro-zone and German ZEW Surveys and weak Euro-zone Industrial Production prior to a very much weaker US NFIB Small Business Optimism released earlier this morning.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:45 (with the BUND at 14:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:15, EUROPE at 22:30 and ASIA at 25:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, confluence, Consumer Confidence, CPI, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, ECB, economic, employment, equities, EU, Euro, Euro-zone, Eurogroup, Europe, European Union, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, NFIB, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PMI, Pound, PPI, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, ZEW

2015/07/10 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

July 10, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/07/10 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, July 10, 2015 (early)

150710_SPU_GLOBAL_0700Global View: All Markets  

‘Greece-d Lightning’ remains the case until we see how the decision of the Eurogroup and EU on the revised Greek government bailout package proposal works out on Sunday. Right now the ‘Ecstasy’ is back on hopeful expectations on that, and on the Chinese stock market situation after two days of hefty gains from lower supports on the Shanghai Composite Index. The latter may be more important for the global economy and especially Australia and Emerging Markets across time. Yet Greece is the more immediate stressor for all of the developed economy equities over the weekend into Monday. Needless to say, govvies are also under pressure again as ‘haven’ flows from the classical ‘Agony’ abates, and the US Dollar Index weakens as well. (That is all with our usual apology to Irving Stone for co-opting the title of his great book.)

That additional Agony from the Chinese stock market near-term meltdown may also be more than a bit misguided as well. We have been hearing from well-informed sources that it is not the arbiter of overall Chinese economic performance that the 2008 Crisis in the West represented for the US and other economies. As discussed on Wednesday, some Chinese investors who had achieved an economic sense of well-being were thinking there was an easy path to getting ‘rich’. Nonetheless, it seems that the actual degree to which their net worth is in the equities is minimal. The stock market is more of a ‘hobby’ than a major investment focus. Even though the Chinese economy may be slowing, the degree to which stock market weakness will affect average consumers is likely minimal. Unlike the US investors who shoved major portions of retirement funds into various bubbles over the past 20 years, it seems many Chinese investors have a limited stock market exposure.  

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which the data has been very mixed. That includes weaker global Services PMI’s (outside of the UK), Euro-zone Retail PMI’s and German Industrial Production, even as the UK was strong. The FOMC meeting minutes were almost useless in the wake of recent events. Australian Employment was strong as we await the US Wholesale Sales and Inventories and Ms. Yellen’s views today.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 06:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:45, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 13:30 (with the BUND at 17:45) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 20:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:45, EUROPE at 23:45 and ASIA at 26:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, confluence, Consumer Confidence, CPI, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, ECB, economic, employment, equities, EU, Euro, Euro-zone, Eurogroup, Europe, European Union, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PMI, Pound, PPI, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

2015/07/08 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

July 8, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/07/08 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, July 8, 2015 (early)

150708_SPU_GLOBAL_0710Global View: All Markets  

‘Greece-d Lightning’ now also gets back to the classical ‘Agony’ and ‘Ecstasy’ (with our usual apology to Irving Stone for co-opting the title of his great book.) The additional Agony is of course on the Chinese stock market situation. Where the Greek government has actually provided a bit of Ecstasy this morning with a letter to its Eurogroup creditors that has a far more amenable tone, the continued Chinese stock market meltdown is of greater concern than previous. This is not the forum to explore all of the ways the financial industry and government mishandled the situation.

Suffice to say that encouraging brokers to hold stock until it reaches a certain higher price level does not set a floor… it establishes a ceiling. And allowing almost a thousand stocks to suspend trading does not ‘relieve’ selling pressure; it merely suspends it temporarily. And the historic tendency is for further markdowns to turn up on the reopening, typically with a major gap lower opening. And as the holders of those securities understand this, the trading suspension classically only creates more dread than any continued selloff.

Yet the real question (in addition to whether Greece can indeed find a way to avoid the tragedy of a Euro-zone expulsion) is just how much the Chinese bubble bursting will affect the newly created middle class’ economic fortunes and consumer activity. Needless to say, the government’s previous push to encourage stock market participation might now appear a bit misguided. Any sense of value (as Alan Greenspan once said of the US markets) had “…slipped its moorings.” Once it became a “greater fool” market of hoping there would be someone to pay more rather than any relationship with underlying company value, it was only a matter of time until the last fool paid the highest price.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is weak again after the US Employment last Thursday. That includes global Services PMI’s (outside of the UK) and Euro-zone Retail PMI’s. German Industrial Production was weak even as the UK was strong, with not much out today in front of the FOMC meeting minutes release.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 02:00 and intermediate term view at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:45, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 13:00 (with the BUND at 16:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 19:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:15, EUROPE at 23:30 and ASIA at 26:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 29:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:30. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, confluence, Consumer Confidence, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

2015/07/07 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

July 7, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/07/07 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, July 7, 2015 (early)

150707_SPU_CONCISE_0745Concise Highlights  

The ‘Greece-d Lightning’ factor we cited from early last is still at work in aggressive swings Monday into this morning. That’s what equities look like again, yet in a bit more subdued manner than last week, in part because they started from quite a bit lower Closes from last week that they were starting out from at the top of last week. And it is of note that the equities are holding with only a bit of further weakness even though the European govvies are strengthening on a more extensive sustained basis than seen previous. No surprise that the obvious European haven bid Bund is strongest of all. On the foreign exchange the US Dollar Index is moving higher in an orderly manner on other currencies (outside of the Japanese yen) joining renewed secular euro weakness.

As noted since early last week, the current Greek crisis is not Lehman Brothers, and authorities have had more than enough time to ‘ring fence’ the immediate implications for the broader Euro-zone and global economy. The bigger questions over the place of Greece within Europe, and whether that includes potential withdrawal from the Euro-zone and EU, will wait until further developments like tonight’s planned high level meeting.

And as noted last Thursday, the seemingly recalcitrant positions of the EC/IMF/ECB Troika leaders were met with commensurate levels of resistance to agree to the previous Sunday’s ‘final’ offer by the Greek government. Compounding factors included the Greek government position that it was lobbying for a NO vote in last weekend’s referendum. It is now obvious that a Troika offer to review the ‘sustainability’ of Greek debt if the Greeks would agree to the ‘final’ terms was not acceptable. So now the cat is loose among the canaries on all manner of questions extending beyond Greece.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is weak again after the US Employment last Thursday. That includes global Services PMI’s (outside of the UK) and US and Canadian reports Monday. Euro-zone Industrial Production was weak this morning, as was the US Trade Balance even if UK Industrial Production was strong.   

It moves on to the S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:30 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 06:00 and full GOVVIES video analysis from 07:15, yet with only mention of SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 13:00. Foreign exchange is only mentioned, beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 13:45, Europe at 14:30, ASIA at 15:30 and CROSS RATES at 16:45 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 17:15 for a final look.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, confluence, Consumer Confidence, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, Durable Goods, earnings, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, inflation, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen
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