2015/07/14 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, July 14, 2015 (early)
Greece influence is normalizing a bit, and the Chinese stock market is also seemingly over the worst of the recent debacle. However, as we said in Monday morning’s note, these are ‘provisional’ improvements versus a real indication that equities are back to fully bullish in spite of those two key stressors diminishing a bit. In the case of China it seems that a few missteps notwithstanding the authorities did a credible job of breaking the meltdown momentum. While more will need to be seen once all stocks have returned to active trading, it is stabilized for now.
And the ‘provisional’ nature of the Greek Debt Crisis waning is intrinsic in a process which still requires further legislative approval on both sides, especially in Athens. There are also many on both sides who are not happy with a deal that is indeed a German coup that turns Greece into an economic vassal. And there is another issue that means the equities may neither be returning to fully bullish tendencies, nor the govvies to more aggressively bearish tendencies: the weakening of the economic data right into the key period that will indicate whether Q2 represents the sort of US economic rebound from a weak Q1 that many are hoping it will be. In fact, the global growth story that is supposed to encourage higher equities and higher inflation is in doubt after recent serial weak economic data.
Not the least is last Wednesday’s OECD Composite Leading Indicators - July 2015 that was lost in the shuffle of the alternating Agony and Ecstasy of the Greek and Chinese influences. That is reinforced by a much weaker than expected US Retail Sales report this morning.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which the data has been weaker again. That includes last Friday’s weaker US Wholesale Sales (works with weak Retail Sales this morning) in the face of higher than expected Wholesale Inventories. There were also weak Euro-zone and German ZEW Surveys and weak Euro-zone Industrial Production prior to a very much weaker US NFIB Small Business Optimism released earlier this morning.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:45 (with the BUND at 14:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:15, EUROPE at 22:30 and ASIA at 25:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2015/07/15 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2015/07/15 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, July 15, 2015 (early)
Greece influence still normalizing, even if a bit more fraught on further IMF support concerns. While the Chinese stock market had a setback today, that is only a modest reaction after the recent substantial recovery from the late June-early July debacle. It is also impressive on a return to trading for all Chinese stocks after the recent suspensions. This represents a significant cooling down of the previous stresses even if the elimination of the problems remains ‘provisional’. Yet the equities are likely to receive further support over the next two days from Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony and Q&A, and Thursday morning’s (US time) ECB press conference.
After the recent disruptions it is likely both Ms. Yellen and Signore Draghi will be upbeat in their economic views. That is especially so with the ‘provisional’ nature of Greece’s Debt Crisis waning tied into further discussions of how to avoid a near term default next week. They are likely to speak of the overall improvement. And at least in the Euro-zone that appears to be the case, yet with some recent exceptions. As noted yesterday, are other issues that mean the equities may neither be returning to fully bullish tendencies, nor the govvies to more aggressively bearish tendencies: the weakening of the economic data right into the key period that will indicate whether Q2 represents the sort of US economic rebound from a weak Q1 that many are hoping it will be.
As also noted yesterday, not the least of the weaker indications was last Wednesday’s OECD Composite Leading Indicators that was lost in the shuffle of the alternating Agony and Ecstasy of the Greek and Chinese influences. That is reinforced by recent much weaker than expected US Retail Sales Tuesday and UK Employment this morning.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is weak again after the US Employment last Thursday. That includes global Services PMI’s (outside of the UK) and US and Canadian reports Monday. Euro-zone Industrial Production was weak this morning, as was the US Trade Balance even if UK Industrial Production was strong.
It moves on to the S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:30 and intermediate term at 06:30 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 09:00 and GOVVIES from 10:30 (with BUND comments at 12:00), and limited SHORT MONEY FORWARDS comments at 14:00. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 14:45, Europe at 15:30, ASIA at 16:30 and the almost total lack of change in the CROSS RATES at 18:00 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 18:15 for a final look.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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