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2015/08/17 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

August 17, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/08/17 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, August 17, 2015 (early)

150817_SPU_GLOBAL_0700Global View: All Markets  

As we have noted all of last week, the Chinese renminbi devaluation matters. This is not just a matter of the technical adjustment to liberate freer trading of their currency PBoC would like everyone to believe. That position is in line with desire to see renminbi (RMB) approved by IMF and others as a reserve currency. Yet its devaluation is considered at least in part a move to bolster exports to assist what is now seen as an ailing economy. It is struggling more than was expected not more than several months ago, and that is affecting the global commodities psychology.

It is very interesting that PBoC chose to move after the previous Friday’s US Employment report and weak Chinese export figures over that weekend. If there is a chance the Fed will raise rates in September, the last thing Chinese authorities need is a peg to a strong US dollar that might rise further, continuing its damage to China’s neighboring currencies.

And we continue to focus on the OECD Composite Leading Indicators implication that while much of the world has a weak outlook (China, Canada, the US and the UK), Europe seems to be strengthening. We have pointed out previous (and revisit below) how this makes no sense. And last week at least some of those negative chickens seemed to come home to roost. While Germany’s initial Q2 GDP numbers were about on target, most of the other major Euro-zone economies were weaker than expected. And to put it all into perspective, that was an average for the Euro-zone of 0.30% growth versus the 0.40% expected by most economists. That is not exactly setting the world on fire in any event.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the key Chinese factor noted above along with the degree to which a goodly bit of the data last week was soft. That included weaker UK and German Industrial Production figures, and along with weaker Chinese exports German exports were also much weaker. With US Wholesale Trade figures also weak last Tuesday the continued weakness of Japanese GDP and especially US Empire Manufacturing (since the video recording) are weak signs. That said, more critical influences will be on Wednesday (FOMC minutes) into Thursday.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 04:45, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:15 (with the BUND at 14:45) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 16:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:30, EUROPE at 22:15 and ASIA at 25:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged Abenomics, analysis, Asia, Australia, Beige Book, BoC, BoE, BoJ, Bund, calendar, capacity, China, comments, confluence, considerable time, Crude Oil, data dependent, DAX, debt, dollar, Draghi, ECB, economic, election, Empire Manufacturing, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, hike, housing, Housing Starts, IFO, Indicators, Industrial, industrial production, inflation, instability, Japan, Leading, macro, macro-technical, Michigan, midterm, minutes, NIKKEI, PBOC, Philly Fed, PMI, Pound, production, QE, Retail Sales, S&P 500, T-note, taper, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

2015/08/14 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

August 14, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/08/14 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, August 14, 2015 (early)

150814_SPU_CONCISE_0700Concise Highlights  

As we have noted all week, the Chinese renminbi devaluation matters. This is not just a matter of the technical adjustment to liberate freer trading of their currency PBoC would like everyone to believe. That position is in line with desire to see renminbi (RMB) approved by IMF and others as a reserve currency. Yet its devaluation is considered at least in part a move to bolster exports to assist what is now seen as an ailing economy, which is struggling more than was expected several months ago.

All of the indications behind that and other influences were discussed at length in early sections of Wednesday’s Global View video analysis post and the Market Observations (still relevant) appended to it early Thursday (prior to the US Retail Sales report.) It is very interesting that the PBoC chose to move after last Friday’s US Employment report and weak Chinese export figures over the weekend. If there is a chance the Fed will indeed raise rates in September, the last thing Chinese authorities need is a peg to the strong US dollar that might rise further, continuing its damage to China’s neighboring currencies.

And we continue to focus on the OECD Composite Leading Indicators implication that while much of the world has a weak outlook (China, Canada, the US and the UK), Europe seems to be strengthening. We have pointed out previous (and revisit below) how this makes no sense. And this morning at least some of those chickens seem to have come home to roost. While Germany’s initial Q2 GDP numbers were about on target, most of the other major Euro-zone economies were weaker than expected. And just to put it all into perspective, that was an average for the Euro-zone of 0.30% growth versus the 0.40% that was expected by most economists. Not exactly setting the world on fire in any event.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is weak again after the US Employment last Friday. That includes US Retail Sales rebounding from last month’s weakness, yet UK Construction Output coming much weaker. And Greek bailout progress is once again under pressure for reasons we discussed a month ago.

It moves on to the S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:45 and intermediate term at 04:45 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30 and GOVVIES from 07:30 (with BUND comments at 08:30. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 09:30, Europe at 10:15, ASIA at 11:30 and the almost total lack of change in the CROSS RATES at 13:30 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 14:00 for a final look.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, conference, confidence, confluence, Consumer Confidence, CPI, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, EC, ECB, economic, employment, Employment Cost Index, equities, EU, Euro, Euro-zone, Eurogroup, Europe, European Union, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, industrial production, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, Michigan Confidence, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PBOC, PMI, Pound, PPI, press, QE, renminbi, Retail Sales, revisions, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, yuan, ZEW

2015/08/12 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

August 12, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/08/12 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 (early)

150812_SPU_GLOBAL_0700Global View: All Markets  

As we noted Tuesday morning, the Chinese renminbi devaluation mattered. This was not just a matter of the technical adjustment to liberate freer trading of their currency PBoC would like everyone to believe. That public position is in line with its desire to see renminbi (RMB) approved by the IMF and others as a reserve currency. Yet its devaluation is considered at least in part a move to bolster exports to assist what is now seen as an ailing economy, which is struggling more than was expected as recently as several months ago. All of the indications behind that and the other influences were discussed at length in the early sections of yesterday’s Global View post, and are revisited briefly below. We are going right into some key market considerations now.

As of now the September S&P 500 future failing from 2,096-2,100 even on Monday’s major M&A news was a key indication. After typically failing 2,090-88 it was struggling to hold the 2,078-75 range on Tuesday. Now also below that as well leaves 2,060-56 as the last zone this side of more major 2,040-36 area. The September T-note future back up from its test of the 126-20/127-00 important lead contract congestion (much as the other fixed income has also rallied) has ranged above the key 128-10 resistance prior to sliding back below it for now. The US Dollar Index that was back up challenging the .9750-75 area once again for the past month never demonstrated the sort of aggressive rally extension that would be indicated by violation of the .9850 Tolerance of that resistance. Now on a .9750 DOWN Break out its short-term daily up channel it seems to also be reflecting the Chinese indications on a possible weak global economy; that could restrain the hawks at the Fed.

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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the key Chinese factor noted above along with the degree to which a goodly bit of the data last week was soft and Thursday’s BoE Inflation Report and press conference were more dovish than expected. That was after weaker UK and German Industrial Production figures, and along with weaker Chinese exports German exports were also much weaker. With US Wholesale Trade figures also weak on Tuesday along with Euro-zone Industrial Production and UK Employment today, it is all looking quite a bit weaker than expected.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:30 and intermediate term view at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:45, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:30 (with the BUND at 15:30) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 17:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:15, EUROPE at 23:30 and ASIA at 25:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:15 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:30. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. 

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, conference, confidence, confluence, Consumer Confidence, CPI, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, EC, ECB, economic, employment, Employment Cost Index, equities, EU, Euro, Euro-zone, Eurogroup, Europe, European Union, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, housing, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, industrial production, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, NFIB, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PBOC, PMI, Pound, PPI, press, QE, renminbi, Retail Sales, revisions, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, yuan, ZEW

2015/08/11 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

August 11, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/08/11 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 (early)

150811_SPU_GLOBAL_0700Global View: All Markets  

China Devalues!! Does it matter? Yes, it does. This was not just a matter of the technical adjustment to liberate freer trading of their currency PBoC would like everyone to believe. That public position is in line with its desire to see renminbi (RMB) approved by the IMF and others as a reserve currency. Yet its current devaluation is considered at least in part a move to bolster exports and suppress imports for an economy that is struggling more than was expected as recently as several months ago.

And this only adds more pressure to those who export into China. Hence the weakness of the Australian dollar and Japanese yen along with the global equities this morning. It is also not much of a surprise after this weekend brought the news that Chinese exports had dropped a whopping 8.3% in July. That was in the context of an estimated fall of just 1.0% after they had improved in June. This gets back to yesterday’s release of the latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) that showed continued weakness outside of Europe.

As we have asked since the previous month’s OECD CLI release, is it reasonable to count on Europe to be the engine that rescues the rest of the developed economies if China and the US are weakening? We find that a dubious proposition that is grounds to remain skeptical of equities on rallies and friendly to govvies on setbacks, with the US Dollar Index stuck a bit betwixt and between yet weakening a bit now.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of quite a few of the factors noted above along with the degree to which a goodly bit of last Thursday’s BoE Inflation Report and press conference were more dovish than expected after weaker than expected UK and German Industrial Production figures. Along with weaker Chinese exports, German exports were also much weaker than expected on Friday, and Australian Business Confidence was also weak. We now await US Wholesale Sales and Inventories.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:15 and intermediate term view at 05:15, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:30 (with the BUND at 14:30) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 16:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:00, EUROPE at 22:30 and ASIA at 24:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, bailout, BoE, BoJ, Bund, CBI, China, comments, conference, confidence, confluence, Consumer Confidence, CPI, cut, DAX, debt, default, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, earnings, EC, ECB, economic, employment, Employment Cost Index, equities, EU, Euro, Euro-zone, Eurogroup, Europe, European Union, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Greece, Grexit, housing, IFO, IMF, import, Indicators, industrial production, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, Inventories, Japan, Lagarde, macro, macro-technical, NFIB, NIKKEI, OECD, oil, PBOC, PMI, Pound, PPI, press, QE, renminbi, Retail Sales, revisions, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, Troika, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, yuan, ZEW

2015/08/06 Commentary: BoE ‘Super Thursday’ Success (early)

August 6, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/08/06 Commentary: BoE ‘Super Thursday’ Success (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY (Non-Video): Thursday, August 6, 2015

Commentary: BoE 'Super Thursday' Success

BOEcarneyPRESSconf-150806‘Super Thursday’ a success for Bank of England. Aside from our observation that central bankers have gone from inscrutable to insufferable (the US this week was a good example), it was the case that the BoE’s previous process for rate announcements, minutes release and the Inflation Report release being the only press conference was indeed prone to creating undue speculation over its views and the path of future rate adjustments. Following through on his success in instituting post-rate decision press conferences at the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney and the BoE board has done away with all that. While some would consider it an extreme adjustment, it was decided not to micro-adjust this process.

As of today, Bank of England rate decisions which occur at the time of the Inflation Report release will be accompanied by immediate release of that meeting’s minutes, including disclosure of specifics of the rate decision vote along with the Inflation Report, followed by the Inflation Report press conference. The latter obviously becomes the post-rate decision press conference even if it is still designated as being attendant to the Inflation Report. And it seems to have been a great success. In central banker terms success is often measured by how little the markets react to any surprises.

And during the press conference the markets were significantly calm, only moving once it ended. While it was a bit of a surprise that even the previously more hawkish Governor Carney had to allow the inflation outlook was a bit more subdued than expected, he clarified some aspects of his previous perceived aggressive rate view. Especially that some folks (other than this analyst) misinterpreted his comments as being perspective on the date of a future rate increase rather than a horizon at which it would be assessed.   

[For anyone interested in the video analysis, markets are still behaving in a manner consistent with Tuesday morning’s Global View TrendView video analysis in spite of the recent bid in equities and the US dollar and weakness in the govvies. We refer you back to that, and the even more current Market Observations that were appended to it early Wednesday morning. Basically the recent swings have been adjustments within well anticipated trend evolution, and all previous technical levels and trend psychologies remain intact in after the Bank of England rate (non-)decision and communications.]

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options and join us. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the extended trend assessment as well.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, austerity, BoE, Carney, China, comments, confluence, CPI, cut, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Euro-zone, Europe, Fed, fixed income, Foreign Exchange, GDP, Germany, Greece, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, macro, macro-technical, minutes, MPC, political, politico-economic, QE, Quantitative Easing, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, technical, Trade, UK, US dollar, Yellen
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