2015/08/14 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, August 14, 2015 (early)
As we have noted all week, the Chinese renminbi devaluation matters. This is not just a matter of the technical adjustment to liberate freer trading of their currency PBoC would like everyone to believe. That position is in line with desire to see renminbi (RMB) approved by IMF and others as a reserve currency. Yet its devaluation is considered at least in part a move to bolster exports to assist what is now seen as an ailing economy, which is struggling more than was expected several months ago.
All of the indications behind that and other influences were discussed at length in early sections of Wednesday’s Global View video analysis post and the Market Observations (still relevant) appended to it early Thursday (prior to the US Retail Sales report.) It is very interesting that the PBoC chose to move after last Friday’s US Employment report and weak Chinese export figures over the weekend. If there is a chance the Fed will indeed raise rates in September, the last thing Chinese authorities need is a peg to the strong US dollar that might rise further, continuing its damage to China’s neighboring currencies.
And we continue to focus on the OECD Composite Leading Indicators implication that while much of the world has a weak outlook (China, Canada, the US and the UK), Europe seems to be strengthening. We have pointed out previous (and revisit below) how this makes no sense. And this morning at least some of those chickens seem to have come home to roost. While Germany’s initial Q2 GDP numbers were about on target, most of the other major Euro-zone economies were weaker than expected. And just to put it all into perspective, that was an average for the Euro-zone of 0.30% growth versus the 0.40% that was expected by most economists. Not exactly setting the world on fire in any event.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of some of the factors noted above along with the degree to which some other data is weak again after the US Employment last Friday. That includes US Retail Sales rebounding from last month’s weakness, yet UK Construction Output coming much weaker. And Greek bailout progress is once again under pressure for reasons we discussed a month ago.
It moves on to the S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:45 and intermediate term at 04:45 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30 and GOVVIES from 07:30 (with BUND comments at 08:30. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 09:30, Europe at 10:15, ASIA at 11:30 and the almost total lack of change in the CROSS RATES at 13:30 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 14:00 for a final look.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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2015/08/17 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2015/08/17 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, August 17, 2015 (early)
As we have noted all of last week, the Chinese renminbi devaluation matters. This is not just a matter of the technical adjustment to liberate freer trading of their currency PBoC would like everyone to believe. That position is in line with desire to see renminbi (RMB) approved by IMF and others as a reserve currency. Yet its devaluation is considered at least in part a move to bolster exports to assist what is now seen as an ailing economy. It is struggling more than was expected not more than several months ago, and that is affecting the global commodities psychology.
It is very interesting that PBoC chose to move after the previous Friday’s US Employment report and weak Chinese export figures over that weekend. If there is a chance the Fed will raise rates in September, the last thing Chinese authorities need is a peg to a strong US dollar that might rise further, continuing its damage to China’s neighboring currencies.
And we continue to focus on the OECD Composite Leading Indicators implication that while much of the world has a weak outlook (China, Canada, the US and the UK), Europe seems to be strengthening. We have pointed out previous (and revisit below) how this makes no sense. And last week at least some of those negative chickens seemed to come home to roost. While Germany’s initial Q2 GDP numbers were about on target, most of the other major Euro-zone economies were weaker than expected. And to put it all into perspective, that was an average for the Euro-zone of 0.30% growth versus the 0.40% expected by most economists. That is not exactly setting the world on fire in any event.
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Video Timeline: It begins with a macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the key Chinese factor noted above along with the degree to which a goodly bit of the data last week was soft. That included weaker UK and German Industrial Production figures, and along with weaker Chinese exports German exports were also much weaker. With US Wholesale Trade figures also weak last Tuesday the continued weakness of Japanese GDP and especially US Empire Manufacturing (since the video recording) are weak signs. That said, more critical influences will be on Wednesday (FOMC minutes) into Thursday.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 04:45, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:30, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:15 (with the BUND at 14:45) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS 16:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:30, EUROPE at 22:15 and ASIA at 25:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...