2015/10/09 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 9, 2015 (early)

Concise Highlights

Curiouser and curiouser in its way, yet completely understandable at the same time.  This also remains wonderfully perverse on continued weak economic data allowing the US equities to still lead the others higher while putting some counterpoint pressure onto the govvies. The ‘FOMC Friendly’ anticipation into yesterday afternoon’s release of the September 16-17 meeting minutes was continued after the actual release of those notes. And that is in spite of, or possibly because of, the clearly dovish nature of the discussion. In spite of rumors to the contrary, there was no hint that keeping rates steady was any sort of ‘close call’; the minutes are roundly dovish. That indicates the December S&P 500 future is back in a clear ‘bad news is good news’ psychology in the wake of so much additional weak economic data since the FOMC meeting.

While the govvies are holding fairly well due to the weaker economic data, the question might be why they have not been stronger on serial weakness in items like international trade data? That was weak for Australia, the US and Canada earlier this week and then Japan and Germany and the UK as well today. The answer likely lies with equities strength that creates trepidation in the govvies after last Friday’s weak US Employment report.

Yet overall weakness maintains, as evidenced in the next monthly OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Composite Leading Indicators released Thursday morning. Instead of the typically upbeat headline, they now note “moderating growth in most major economies.” That’s OECD code language for things are looking pretty bad. More on the continued weakness outside of Europe below. Yet we waited for US Wholesale Sales this morning to post this, and it was also abysmal at minus 1.00%.

That why we do not believe ‘bad news is good news’ (on central bank accommodation) equities rallies can maintain much longer, even if it extends for now. When does ‘bad news is actually bad news’ take hold on the failure of QE we have previously explored?

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the weaker data being back almost across the board in addition to factors noted above. However, the addition of the OECD CLI reinforces all that weakness in addition to the indications from the FOMC minutes. That is because it is the last influence prior to today’s also weak Canadian Employment figures (Full Time Employment tanked) and US Wholesale Sales.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:30 and intermediate term at 06:00 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 10:00 and GOVVIES from 11:00 including discussion of the BUND at 11:45, and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 12:30. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, with US DOLLAR INDEX at 13:00, Europe at 13:30, ASIA at 14:00 and CROSS RATES showing euro strength at 15:00 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 15:30.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2015/10/08 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, October 8, 2015 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

This is wild, and still wonderfully perverse on the continued weak economic data allowing the US equities to still lead the others higher. As such, we think the markets may be tied into another ‘FOMC Friendly’ anticipation. That was the case on the run up to the September 17th meeting, after which the equities crumbled. And we will see the minutes of that FOMC meeting this afternoon. Will some form of misguided hawkishness at that meeting or even more downbeat discussion than anticipated stop this rally as well?

It is going to be interesting, and that is augmented by the degree to which the govvies are responding fairly well to the weaker economic data. The question there might be why they have not been even stronger on serial weakness in items like the international trade data (which was weak for Australia, the US and Canada earlier this week and now Japan and Germany as well)? The answer also likely lies with the equities strength that creates a bit of trepidation in the govvies after last Friday’s weak US Employment number surge.

Yet overall weakness maintains, as evidenced in the next monthly OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Composite Leading Indicators released earlier this morning. Instead of the typically upbeat headline, they now note “moderating growth in most major economies.” That’s OECD code language for things are looking pretty bad. More on the continued weakness outside of Europe below. Yet that is why we do not believe ‘bad news is good news’ (on central bank accommodation) equities rallies can maintain much longer. When does ‘bad news is actually bad news’ take hold on the failure of QE we have previously explored?

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the weaker data being back almost across the board in addition to factors noted above. However, the addition of the OECD CLI reinforces all that weakness pending what comes out of the FOMC minutes this afternoon. That is because it is the last influence prior to a light Friday where Canadian Employment and US Wholesale Sales are the key releases.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 06:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:15, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:00 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 13:45) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:45, EUROPE at 19:45 and ASIA at 21:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 24:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...