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2015/11/04 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

November 4, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/11/04 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, November 4, 2015 (early)

151104_SPZ_GLOBAL_0645Global View: All Markets  

While the 1-3 day FOMC ‘halo’ effect on equities seemed to wear off late last Friday, the gap higher Monday morning still kept the short term trend up. And that was reinforced by the December S&P 500 future pushing above interim 2,100 resistance, yet with more major resistances into 2,114.20 (December contract high from back in July), 2,120 failed May UP Break and the 2,132 all-time lead contract high. Why is it so important to note these in the initial background discussion? Because right now the US equities are an outlier as the other equities still struggle at much lower levels compared to their previous highs.

And this is interesting due to the return to an ostensibly more hawkish stance by the Fed in last week’s FOMC statement. While it still seems significantly ‘data dependent’, the FOMC mention of ‘whether’ to “…raise the target rate at its next meeting…” sounded fairly hawkish against open ended language in previous FOMC statements. Closer scrutiny of the FOMC statement (that links to our marked up version) shows they are still waiting to see how quite a few factors develop.

So while Janet Yellen’s House Financial Services Committee testimony today is supposed to be on supervision and regulation, any indications spilling over into monetary policy may have an impact on the markets. And the fact that you have a bunch of politicians as inquisitors, do we really believe they will be able to resist commenting and question the Fed’s rate intentions? Especially with data improving to some degree (this week’s global PMI’s have been positive on balance), the Fed will likely continue to sound hawkish.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the central bank factors noted above along with the ECB influence. After review of those global PMI indications it notes that there are even more important factors than Ms. Yellen’s testimony today pending later this week. In addition to other important data there is Thursday’s BoE rate decision and Inflation Report press conference, with the entire week culminating in Friday’s US and Canadian Employment reports. And all of this is now Q4 data as well.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:45, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 12:45 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 16:00) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS discussion from 17:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:15, EUROPE at 22:00 and ASIA at 25:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:15 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, Carney, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confluence, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, PBOC, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, statement, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

2015/11/02 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

November 2, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/11/02 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, November 2, 2015 (early)

151102_SPZ_GLOBAL_0645Global View: All Markets  

The FOMC ‘halo’ effect on equities that typically lasts 1-3 days after an accommodative statement seemed to wear off late last Friday. While last Wednesday’s missive tried to sound more hawkish for that first hike in almost a decade still being possible into the end of this year, there were still a lot of ‘data dependent’ caveats in the statement. Specific mention of consideration of ‘whether’ to “…raise the target rate at its next meeting…” sounded fairly hawkish compared to open ended language in previous FOMC statements. Yet this seems more so confirming their desire to put through the rate increase before the end of 2015. And closer scrutiny of the FOMC statement (that links to our marked up version) shows they are still waiting to see how quite a few factors develop.

That is currently not nearly as focused on the global situation in the ‘monitoring’ language compared to the last statement specifically noting concerns there. Yet the fact is that the global situation is indeed troubling right now, and that was reinforced by the latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators earlier last month; which is something we have highlighted for many months. This also plays into all of the serial weak global economic data that now includes much of the US data as well of late.

And this gets back to the sort of influence which belies the ostensibly hawkish aspects of the FOMC statement with their continued concerns over “…some further improvement in the labor market…” after the earlier observation that… “The pace of job gains has slowed…” This is further Fed-speak double-talk for the degree to which they remain ‘data dependent’ in spite of no longer wanting to use that language. That is also why this week’s US Employment report and other data this month takes on additional importance. As the first data of the fourth quarter, it will signal whether there is any rebound after a weak Q3.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the central bank factors noted above. However, the addition of OECD Composite Leading Indicators reinforces all the economic weakness seen last week again. While there is also the weak influence of global Trade figures, further weakness in US Manufacturing PMI this morning along with China is not the sort of thing that will encourage Fed confidence for a rate hike.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:45, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:45 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 14:15) and skipping stagnant SHORT MONEY FORWARDS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 16:00, EUROPE at 18:15 and ASIA at 21:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 24:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confidence, confluence, Consumer, Consumer Confidence, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, Emerging, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, PBOC, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, statement, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, ZEW

2015/10/29 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

October 29, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/10/29 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, October 29, 2015 (early)

151029_SPZ_GLOBAL_0745Global View: All Markets  

FOMC: Next turn of the rate hike screw, or just so much talk? We still believe the latter is the case.

While specific mention of consideration of ‘whether’ to “…raise the target rate at its next meeting…” sounded fairly hawkish compared to more open ended language in previous FOMC statements, the fact is they were only confirming their previous desire to put through the first rate increase in almost a decade before the end of 2015. And closer scrutiny of the FOMC statement (that links to our marked up version) shows they are still waiting to see how quite a few factors develop.

That is currently not nearly as focused on the global situation in the ‘monitoring’ language compared to the last statement specifically noting concerns there. Yet the fact is that the global situation is indeed troubling right now, and that was reinforced by the latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators earlier this month; which is something we have highlighted for many months. This also plays into all of the serial weak global economic data that now includes much of the US data as well of late.

And this gets back to the sort of influence which belies the ostensibly hawkish aspects of the FOMC statement with their continued concerns over “…some further improvement in the labor market…” after the earlier observation that… “The pace of job gains has slowed…” This is further Fed-speak double-talk for the degree to which they remain ‘data dependent’ in spite of no longer wanting to use that language. And while all central banks disallow their currency’s exchange rate being part of their mandate, the resilience of the US dollar rally must be of some concern. It is obviously affecting US manufacturing exports and multinationals’ earnings. Any further strength on higher rates is a problem.    

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the central bank factors noted above. However, the addition of OECD Composite Leading Indicators reinforces all the economic weakness seen this week again. While there is also the weak influence of global Trade figures, further weakness in US and UK GDP and all manner of other economic data is discussed at length in the early section of the video.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 02:30 and intermediate term view at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:45, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:00 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 14:00) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:30, EUROPE at 20:30 and ASIA at 23:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 30:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confidence, confluence, Consumer, Consumer Confidence, CPI, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, Emerging, Empire, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, industrial production, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, PBOC, PMI, Pound, PPI, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, statement, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, ZEW

2015/10/27 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

October 27, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/10/27 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 (early)

151027_SPZ_GLOBAL_0745Global View: All Markets  

Draghi’s Disinflation Dirigisme = Equities Elation...

…with special thanks as well to the Peoples Bank of China for its contribution to the ‘bad news is good news’ equities psychology. And a big thank you goes out to economic data as well. In another predictably perverse reaction to what has now become serial weak US Durable Goods Orders indications, the figures there this morning included a full one percent downward revision to already weak data from the previous month… and as of the time of this analysis the December S&P 500 future had only temporarily dipped below 2,060-58 short term support (i.e. violated early 2015 congestion resistance) prior to recovering back into that range.

Yet this is not a huge mystery, as the accommodative central bank ‘bad news is good news’ equities psychology is due for further reinforcement on Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement release. Of note, it is indeed a straight statement scheduled for this meeting, so there will be much tea leaf reading on any changes which might indicate whether the Fed will indeed still possibly raise the base rate this year (i.e. at the December 15-16 meeting.) Yet in spite of the continued assertions by some of its far flung minions, the more weak data comes forth, the less likely it is the Fed will hike this year.

And in its perverse way that means ‘bad news is good news’ will continue to be the equities psychology in a world where ‘safe’ investments provide no yield. And among the most interesting aspects is the degree to which this continued ‘risk assets’ being the only way to make a return is also supportive of govvies. With so much weak data expected to continue into the future, there is no ‘inflation psychology’ that will weigh on the govvies. Anyone in doubt on that should just take a peek at the performance of the German Bund.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the central bank factors noted above. However, the addition of OECD Composite Leading Indicators (revisited again below) reinforces all the economic weakness. While there is also the weak influence of global Trade figures, of late some of the data is improving a bit. That includes German IFO, yet with much else remaining weak… like UK GDP and CBI statistics.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 06:15, OTHER EQUITIES from 09:15, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 14:15 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 17:45) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 20:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:45, EUROPE at 24:15 and ASIA at 26:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:45 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoC, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confidence, confluence, Consumer, Consumer Confidence, CPI, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, Emerging, Empire, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, industrial production, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, PBOC, PMI, Pound, PPI, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen, ZEW

2015/10/23 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

October 23, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/10/23 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, October 23, 2015 (early)

151023_SPZ_GLOBAL_0700Global View: All Markets  

Draghi’s Disinflation Dirigisme = Equities Elation.

The extreme concern (certainly somewhat warranted) of the ECB over potential negative inflation ended up in a tour de force of the power of the state (in this case its central bank) to influence market psychology. While the classical definition of dirigisme might be to be more hands on involved in some actual investment decisions, the power of the ECB, Fed, BoJ, and others to spur equity market activity is most impressive. While the Fed’s longstanding ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) was the forerunner of the market influence the others now wield so effectively, there is little doubt continued global downward pressure on interest rates is encouraging further flows into ‘risk assets’… like stock markets. And all of what Mario Draghi accomplished on Thursday regarding the ‘risk on’ psychology was accelerated by this morning’s PBoC rate cut.

Of course, the perverse aspect of all this is that the central bank stimulus programs are not actually encouraging a return to the more robust economic growth they all would really like to see. As we have explored at length the failure of the political class to deliver meaningful structural reforms (especially in the US), we will demure here. Suffice to say that of late we have also highlighted once again the significant weakness in global trade. Volumes are down markedly in a sign of the underlying softness of the global economy. Danish global containerized shipping giant Mærsk sharply cut its profit projections due to that slow down. And the primary culprit? Weakness on the Asia-Europe routes. And this is just as Europe is supposed to be the engine that assists the other economies out of their weakness, at least according to the latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators.      

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the central bank factors noted above. However, the addition of OECD Composite Leading Indicators (discussed at length in previous posts) reinforces all the economic weakness. While there is also the weak influence of global Trade figures, of late some of the data is improving a bit. That includes this morning’s global Advance PMI’s in the wake of the ECB yesterday.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term indications at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 05:15, OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00, GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:45 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 13:45) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:15, EUROPE at 19:45 and ASIA at 22:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 25:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 28:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoC, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confidence, confluence, Consumer, Consumer Confidence, CPI, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, ECB, economic, Emerging, Empire, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, industrial production, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Michigan Confidence, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, PBOC, Philly, PMI, Pound, PPI, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, wholesale, Yellen, Yen, ZEW
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