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2015/11/20 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

November 20, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/11/20 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, November 20, 2015 (early)

151120_SPZ_CONCISE_0745Concise Highlights

The FOMC October meeting minutes yielded the sentiment we (and many others) expected. There was the expression the US economy is strengthening enough to warrant a December meeting hike. Yet it was most interesting that there was also almost as much rate hike dissent in the form of reliance on “continued improvement in conditions” at the October meeting as we saw in September. This was reinforced by Cleveland Fed President Mester’s appearance on CNBC Thursday morning. When asked whether she was ‘dove’ or ‘hawk’, she responded that she was an ‘owl’. In other words, there are likely others like her on the FOMC who remain more ‘data dependent’ than the hawks would like to believe.

And as we have noted for some time in the wake of the much weaker economic data since the last, quite strong US Employment report, there is good reason to question if December will indeed be the right window for the Fed to put through that first rate hike in nine years. Noted repeatedly of late is last Monday morning’s OECD Semi-annual Outlook. The bottom line is that much of the world including the US is less constructive than recent Fed views, still led by China and emerging economies. Yet that includes the prescient indication Japan was weakening again, and the UK remaining weak as well. The idea Europe is strengthening is only in the context of how weak it was. And the recent data and expressions of concern belie any expectations of real strength.

And the real influence back into the markets was going to be whether they believe the US economy is indeed still getting stronger in the wake of economic data that has softened again since the Employment report into weaker than expected US Retail Sales last Friday. On current form, the strength of equities doesn’t feel like it is driven by strong data, and the other asset classes are conforming to that weaker view (more below.)

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the factors noted above, with recent signs Q4 will not be the anticipated recovery. In addition to other factors, Monday’s GDP showed Japan back in recession, this morning’s Chinese Leading Indicators and Canadian Retail Sales (mimicking the US) were also still quite weak.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 03:00 and intermediate term at 05:45 with OTHER EQUITIES from 08:00 and only mention of GOVVIES from 09:15 including discussion of the BUND at 11:00, and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 11:45. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, with US DOLLAR INDEX at 12:30, Europe at 13:30, ASIA at 14:45 and CROSS RATES that are mostly steady yet with a weak euro at 16:15 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 16:45.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, Carney, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confluence, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, OUTLOOK, PBOC, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, statement, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

2015/11/19 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

November 19, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/11/19 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, November 19, 2015 (early)

151119_SPZ_GLOBAL_0745Global View: All Markets  

The Minutes Matrix we alluded to yesterday morning did indeed yield the sentiment we expected from the FOMC October meeting. The dominant expectation was they were feeling the economy is strengthening enough to warrant a December meeting hike. Yet it was most interesting that there was also almost as much rate hike dissent at the October meeting as we saw in September. This was reinforced by Cleveland Fed President Mester’s appearance on CNBC this morning. When asked whether she was ‘dove’ or ‘hawk’, she responded that she was an ‘owl’. In other words, there are likely others like her on the FOMC who remain more ‘data dependent’ than the hawks would like to believe.

And as we have noted for some time in the wake of the much weaker economic data since last, quite strong US Employment report, there is good reason to question if December will indeed be the right window for the Fed to put through that first rate hike in nine years. Noted repeatedly of late is last Monday morning’s OECD Semi-annual Outlook. The bottom line is that much of the world including the US is less constructive than recent Fed views, still led by China and emerging economies. Yet that includes the prescient indication Japan was weakening again, and the UK remaining weak as well. The idea Europe is strengthening is only in the context of how weak it was.

[NOTE: We updated the Market Observations below Wednesday’s Concise Highlights TrendView video analysis early this morning for the benefit of any subscribers who wanted to see our post-FOMC minutes assessment prior to this morning’s video analysis. Those remain our views, and they are posted once again below the video in this post.]

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the factors noted above, and we note the equities recent failure was in spite of recent strong US Employment figures spreading elsewhere. While that might have been a sign Q4 will be the long anticipated recovery, recent indications at the end of last week and this week are less constructive, including much of the data and Japan sinking back into recession.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 05:30, OTHER EQUITIES from 07:45, GOVVIES beginning at 11:00 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 14:00) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 15:45. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:30, EUROPE at 20:15 and ASIA at 23:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 29:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, Carney, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confluence, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, OUTLOOK, PBOC, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, statement, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

2015/11/18 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

November 18, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/11/18 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, November 18, 2015 (early)

151118_SPZ_CONCISE_0745Concise Highlights

Minutes Matrix. That’s what the markets are dealing with this morning. The key aspects of what the FOMC is expected to reveal in the October meeting minutes release at 13:00 CST today boils down to two key factors that fit into a neat matrix. Is the economy strengthening or still struggling? And were they still focused on pushing through the first rate increase in nine years, or are they a bit more circumspect? The dominant expectation is they were still feeling the economy is strengthening enough to warrant a December meeting hike.

Yet, the real influence is going to be whether the markets believe the economy is indeed still getting stronger in the wake of economic data that has softened again since the US Employment report into weaker than expected US Retail Sales last Friday. That has been followed by weak US and international data this week. That includes Monday’s Japanese GDP that indicated it is back in recession, Tuesday’s UK CPI remaining in negative ground, and roundly negative numbers this morning into a much weaker than expected US Housing Starts (an area that had been very supportive of a stronger US view previous.)

As noted in our video analysis, it seems a lot of markets are on hold awaiting the release of those FOMC minutes. Yet even if the Fed is still pushing the more upbeat view of the economy that would allow for the December hike, there is much else that indicates more weakness than that. Not the least of those is last Monday morning’s OECD Semi-annual Outlook. The bottom line is that much of the world including the US is less constructive than recent Fed views, still led by China and emerging economies. Yet that includes the prescient indication Japan was weakening again, and the UK remaining weak as well. The idea Europe is strengthening is only in the context of how weak it was.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the factors noted above, and we note the equities recent failure was in spite of recent strong US Employment figures spreading elsewhere. While that might have been a sign Q4 will be the long anticipated recovery , the more recent indications into the end of last week and this week are less constructive; including Japan sinking back into recession.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:15 with OTHER EQUITIES from 06:45 and only mention of GOVVIES from 07:45 including discussion of the BUND at 08:45, and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 09:30. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, with US DOLLAR INDEX at 10:00, Europe at 10:45, ASIA at 12:00 and CROSS RATES showing weakness of the British pound at 12:45 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 14:15.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, Carney, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confluence, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, OUTLOOK, PBOC, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, statement, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

2015/11/17 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

November 17, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/11/17 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, November 17, 2015 (early)

151117_SPZ_GLOBAL_0745Global View: All Markets  

That was quite a rally in the equities. Yet it should not have been totally unexpected as a ‘relief rally’ once it looked like the Western powers-that-be were reacting forcefully to the weekend terror attacks in Paris. It is an open question why more of this was not being done previous where the threat from the radicals was such an apparent ongoing situation. Yet sometimes it takes a sharp catalyst to spur major Western governments into the sort of action that others can already see as necessary. As noted in Monday’s Brief Current Commentary (worth a red if you have not done so already), our sympathy and support go out to the victims of this weekend’s Paris terrorist attacks and their families and friends.

And as the equities are very emotional right now, with a lot of near term ‘velocity’ (versus background volatility), we are going to once again shift into an immediate market trend assessment rather than review a lot of the background. Suffice to say for now that the ‘macro’ factors have weakened again. That was evidenced by quite a bit of last week’s late week economic data, culminating in the once again weaker than expected US Retail Sales. And that was in spite of the previous strong US Employment report and Wholesale Sales data. There is a good reason for that, and we will revisit it soon in a major Commentary.

In the event December S&P 500 future failed up near 2,100 in spite of the strong indication on the US Employment report two weeks ago. More telling was failing support back into 2,080-75 on the opening last week in the wake of the OECD Semi-annual Outlook. And Thursday saw another gap lower that ultimately remained below 2,060-58 for a fresh major daily channel DOWN Break. It is interesting that in overnight trade into this morning it has already traded up into and failed from that area.

_____________________________________________________________

Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the factors noted above, and we note the equities recent failure was in spite of recent strong US Employment figures spreading elsewhere. While that might have been a sign Q4 will be the long anticipated recovery , the more recent indications into the end of last week and early this week are less constructive; including Japan sinking back into recession.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 02:45 and intermediate term view at 05:00, OTHER EQUITIES from 06:15, GOVVIES beginning at 09:30 (with the DECEMBER BUND FUTURE at 12:00) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 13:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 15:30, EUROPE at 16:30 and ASIA at 19:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 22:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 26:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.

_____________________________________________________________

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, Asia, Australia, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, Carney, China, comments, Composite Leading Indicators, confluence, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, Durable Goods, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, Indicators, inflation, Inflation Report, instability, interest, interest rate, Isis, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, normalize, OECD, OUTLOOK, Paris, PBOC, PMI, Pound, QE, Retail Sales, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, statement, T-note, technical, terror, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yen

Brief Current Commentary

November 16, 2015 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2015/11/16 Brief Current Commentary (early)

© 2015 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

COMMENTARY (Non-Video): Monday, November 16, 2015

PARISlockPOLICE-151116Brief Current Commentary  

First of all, our sympathy and support goes out to the victims of this weekend’s Paris terrorist attacks and their families and friends. This is yet another horrific situation that seems so unjustified by anything the people who were attacked had anything to do with in their lives. The further tragedy is the ineffectual official response. The typical statements from the leaders of France and the rest of the developed world ring hollow.

Locking down Paris (see picture) on a near term basis is a Band Aid on a much bigger wound, even if it lowers the potential for further attacks on the City of Light in the near term. Yet the rhetoric is the same sorts of things we heard in the wake of the January Charlie Hebdo and Jewish delicatessen attacks, even as they employ immediate military attacks to try and appear more effective.

While France has always been more dedicated to identifying the problem and countering the efforts of the terrorists, this weekend’s incident demonstrates one thing very clearly: Surveil and Prevent will not work. The numbers of radicalized individuals and their almost unimpeded access to Europe through open borders policies has undercut any chance the manpower and technologies capable of monitoring so much activity is even possible.

America

And America is the worst offender. The weakness of President Obama on this issue has only encouraged the radicals rather than elicit the ‘friendlier’ response he had hoped. His lack of desire to actually identify the problem as Islamic Radicalism leaves them inspired to feel America cannot even focus, much less respond effectively. As the leader of the ‘free world’ he has failed miserably to grasp the practical implications of his policies from almost his first day in office. Don’t take our word for it. Just look around.

Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options and join us. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the extended trend assessment as well.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged bombers, bombing, economic, economy, France, Isis, Paris, suicide, terror
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