2016/02/12 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, February 12, 2016 (early)
Global View: All Markets
While the equities have recovered to some degree and the govvies have backed off from their sharp bid, we still feel much is still the same as Tuesday evening’s Commentary: Fear & Loathing in Marketland post. That obviously includes the clear opening portion “WARNING: Extreme bout of Yellen-itis possible!!” The Fed Chair maintained the Fed's ‘normalcy bias’ in her firm commitment to the next move in US interest rates still being up. And that was undoubtedly part of the equities problem out of Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. While there are certain aspects of US data that are somewhat upbeat, there needs to be a lot of other data which improves further to reinforce the FOMC December meeting position on accommodation withdrawal across the balance of 2016.
One of the key factors the Fed obviously liked within what was a disappointing US Employment for last Friday was the best indications on Hourly Wages (+0.5%) in many many months. However, given the still weak nature of the current sustained US recovery compared to its predecessors, US consumers have been less inclined of late to engage in their classical tendency toward conspicuous consumption. Of course, this has showed up in far weaker US Retail Sales than have been expected for many months now. As such, it is going to be very interesting to see the January figures this morning. As energy prices have also remained quite subdued, one of the other aspects that has analysts looking for the classical US consumer tendencies confused is the lack of a ‘spending dividend’ from the savings on home energy usage and automobile fuel.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of aspects noted above, and the degree to which data remained weak on balance this week. That was especially so for Industrial Production and Trade figures, as well as the US NFIB Small Business Confidence. That is often a key forward indicator on US employment.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 03:00 and intermediate term view at 06:00 with a look at the monthly chart as well from 07:30, with OTHER EQUITIES from 09:00, GOVVIES beginning at 14:45 (with the BUND FUTURE at 19:00) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 22:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 25:15 EUROPE at 26:45 and ASIA at 30:00, followed by the CROSS RATES at 33:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 37:30. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to our desire to review the longer term indications in some markets, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2016/02/16 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2016/02/16 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, February 16, 2016 (early)
While equities have recovered to some degree and the govvies backed off from their sharp bid late last week much is the same as Tuesday evening’s Commentary: Fear & Loathing in Marketland post. That obviously includes the clear opening portion “WARNING: Extreme bout of Yellen-itis possible!!” The Fed Chair maintained the Fed's ‘normalcy bias’ in her firm commitment to the next move in US interest rates still being up. And that was undoubtedly part of equities problem out of Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. While there are certain aspects of US data that are somewhat upbeat, the general context of global data remains very weak. Monday morning saw roundly weak data out of Japan (including GDP and Industrial Production.) Even though the headline Chinese Trade Balance was a bit better than expected, that was on the back of weak Exports and abysmal Imports.
On the whole, the recent equities rally has been more so on central banker influence into a return of the ‘bad news is good news’ psychology. This is further evidenced by weakness in the Euro-zone Trade Balance and German ZEW surveys along with ace still very weak US Empire (New York State) Manufacturing Survey this morning (still -16.46.) While there is quite a bit of other economic data this week the main focal point will likely be Wednesday afternoon’s release of the FOMC January meeting minutes. However it is of note that the OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report will be released early Thursday morning (US time.) One of the key aspects of the full report that was released in early November was its concentration on diminished international trade. Economic data released since that time has reinforced the threat from that weakening cyclical influence.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of aspects noted above, and the degree to which data remained weak on balance last week. That was especially so for Industrial Production and Trade figures, as well as the US NFIB Small Business Confidence. That is often a key forward indicator on US employment.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 04:00 and intermediate term view at 07:00 with a look at the monthly chart as well from 08:45, with OTHER EQUITIES from 11:15, GOVVIES beginning at 16:45 (with the BUND FUTURE at 20:15) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 23:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 25:15 EUROPE at 26:30 and ASIA at 29:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 33:45 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 36:00. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to our desire to review the longer term indications in some markets, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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